Looking for companies that are going to deliver demand for Covid-19 testing
Hi,
As governments around the world look to tentaitvely re-open their economies, Covid-19 testing is going to become more and more crucial.
I'm looking to find companies that might be able to exploit that opportunity.
So far I have identified ...
Novacyt
Novacyt SA is a France-based company that develops and markets solutions dedicated to the field of liquid-based cytology and molecular biology.
They are listed in the UK. They have produced a Covid-19 test that has gained approval from the FDA (US), France and the WHO.
They have announced that they are ramping up production ...
Further to the announcement on 30 March 2020, Primerdesign has now achieved the target runrate of manufacturing its COVID-19 test at a rate of four million tests per month. To continue to meet demand, the Company is working to further increase this manufacturing capacity and has signed manufacturing partnership agreements with BioPharma Process Services Ltd and Biofortuna Limited, both based in the UK, to support its existing partnership agreements. In addition, Novacyt continues to scale-up its own production at its Primerdesign site in Southampton, UK. With this additional capacity, the Company expects, over the next three months, to increase production of the test to approximately eight million tests per month.
(see https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Novacyt-COVID-19-test-update-ENGLISH-15.4.20.pdf)
I took a speculative position in Novacyt in mkd February and I'm currently sat on 138% gain. It's certainly helped my daughter's ISA to recover. I hope there is more to come.
Abbott Laboratories
Abbott Laboratories is a US firm that is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture and sale of a range of healthcare products. The Company operates through four segments: Established Pharmaceutical Products, Diagnostic Products, Nutritional Products and Vascular Products.
I believe they have three Covid-19 tests; one which runs through an Id-NOW test platform that can be held in may labs; another where the test is sent to high volume labs which can be found in many hospitals; and an antibody test which I believe can give results in 15 minutes.
CNN is reporting that the anti-body test has been lauded by Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan
new rapid tests manufactured by Abbot Labs had been "unbelievable" and helped him put 700 police officers back on the beat."The Abbot test gives you a result in 15 minutes," he said. "It shows you what this country has been missing, our police department, fire department, back to full force, really because of Abbott Labs and 15 minute tests."
(See https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-economy-politics/index.html)
Mologic
Mologic is a leading developer of lateral flow and rapid diagnostic technologies, products and services in human healthcare, agriculture and aquaculture. We work with companies, researchers and clinicians to help them deliver fast, reliable and accurate diagnosis at the point-of-care.
Unfortunately, I believe this comopany is privately held but they have developed a rapid (15 min) antibody test that gives a blood sample based Yes/No. Think of a pregnancy test but with a pin prick of blood. They have also received a £1m grant by UK government to develop a Covid-19 vaccince.
any body else spotted any opportunities?
Stay safe
Phil
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132 comments
Covid: Tests to be offered twice-weekly to all in England
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-...
The tests will be supplied by Sure Screen (privately held) & Omega Diagnostics (LON:ODX)
$TMO - Thermo Fisher Scientific, should also probably be on this list.
Genedrive (LON:GDR) looking like it could be the next one to move? Please see my post for synopsis.
Novacyt Sa (LON:NCYT) up 12% today with no RNS but there appear to be two tender awards for Primer Design ...
DHSS - Rapid-PCR Instruments, Reagents and Associated Services (£406m)
DHSS - PCR Diagnostic Tests for the Detection of SARS-CoV-2 (£63m)
Strap in!
Yes there has been some gains recently.
Open Orphan (LON:ORPH) has also done well.
After more research it seems ...
In July Omega Diagnostics (LON:ODX) has announced initial production capacity of 100,000 tests by September
Some impending news coming from Omega Diagnostics?
Heavy volume already today and price up > 11%
Here's the news, released overnight but only recently published as an RNS ...
The results of the Ulster University evaluation of the effectiveness of the UK-RTC Abc 19 test (being maunfactured by Omega Diagnostics) are in and they are positive.
https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
https://www.medrxiv.org/conten...
Another positive for me is that I own shares in all three of the companies whose products were selected to form the 'psuedo gold standard' benchmark when used to evalaute the UK-RTC Abc 19 test.
Patience with Novacyt Sa (LON:NCYT) starting to pay off handsomely as the rest of the market spots the opportunity.
Two key announcements today ...
https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
I hope some of the other contributors here are feeling the benefit too
I'm definitely feeling the benefit now and feel more confident with my holding after the latest news releases. One thing i'm struggling with though is a target price! Anybody got any thoughts on that?
Open Orphan (LON:ORPH) for me is the safest Covid recovery play. Rapidly growing niche CRO pharmaceutical services company which is the world leader in testing vaccines & antivirals through human challenge studies. The company has been transformed in recent months, cut cost, revenues increased, now fully profitable. About to get approval for covid-19 challenge model studies, testing covid vaccine for big pharma. Once approved access to additional £100m revenue. Company also has few not core assets it's working on disposing that should generate meaningful cash pile. Chairman does a great job marketing the company and highlighting strategy. Latest presentation can be found here: https://register.gotowebinar.com/recording/recordingView?webinarKey=5865794887628122384®istrantEmail=anthony.mordew%40icloud.com
Just noticed the NCYT stockopedia report has been updated for TTM and has upgraded the stock from momentum trap to super stock. It’s quality scores have bumped up on account of its huge profits and I still think stockopedia isn’t yet correctly calculating the value correctly. It’s currently assuming a pe of 7 currently based on TTM but 2020 estimates on revenue are for more than double of TTM. Stockopedia is currently only estimating 28 million revenue and this is wrong as it will be 150million plus revenue . EPS will be 100p plus and future pe At the current price will be less than 4.
Renalytix Ai (LON:RENX) spun out of Ekf Diagnostics Holdings (LON:EKF) has released a material RNS
hTTps://investors.renalytixai.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kidneyintelx-clinical-testing-launch
notifying the launch of KidneyIntelX in conjunction with Mount Sinai with which it works in partnership.
This should have material effect on the company which has also yet to release an RNS confirming its involvement with an announcement last night from Mount Sinai concerning Covid and again involving Renalytix Ai (LON:RENX)
hTTps://www.mountsinai.org/about/newsroom/2020/new-york-state-department-of-health-grants-emergency-use-authorization-to-mount-sinai-for-quantitative-covid19-antibody-test-pr
TT electronics (LON:TTG) looks promising if it’s results are accurate.
Johnson at PMQ's today ...
"the world we want to move to as fast as possible is a world where everyone can take enabling tests at the beginning of the day, an anti-gen test, to identify whether or not we have the virus or not, like a pregnancy test within 15 minutes or so, so that we know whether we're able to live our lives as normally as possible. That's the vision that the Health Secretary and others have been sketching out over the last few days. That's where we inted to get to"
That's a lot tests!!!!
I'd suggest there is more to come from the testing companies.
Who is going to pay for all that testing? I can't see it ever happening, a test everyday for everyone. Maybe for certain workers, such as in the health service and care homes.
But I do agree that testing is still in demand and needs to improve, reports of no testing available or having to travel long distances needs to change.
"Who is going to pay for all that testing?"
I suggest you ask the PM or the Health Secretary
I doubt we could afford it. 60m tests a day, even if it only costs £10 each that is £600,000,000 per day.
Hi
Re EKF Diagnostics Holdings (LON:EKF)
This who follow EKF Diagnostics Holdings (LON:EKF) do you have a view on the impact of the fast result machines (that are starting to come out) on the orders EKF receive for their PrimeStore MTM product. I know Primestore takes away the cold storage requirement and is good for testing people at home on self isolation but a lot of the testing being done must be where the samples are sent away. As a result Primestore has received big orders but if quick result tests are being performed it must reduce the need for Primestore testing?
If so the potential revenue for Primestore is potentially much reduced?
Any views?
Check out today's news from EKF. A relatively ignored stock which has strategic partnerships that have led to two 'exceed market expectation' notices in two weeks.
Synairgen (LON:SNG) as mentioned before, up over 500% today.
Omega Diagnostics (LON:ODX) has released an RNS late morning where you can sign up to hear an Investor Presentation by Colin King, Chief Executive, and Kieron Harbinson, Group Finance Director on Wednesday 15 July.
The presentation breaks down the Covid products and thier status. I didn't realise but Omega appear to have been in a position of strength in terms of who they partner with.
The presentation talks about potential unit prices and margins based on the FinnCap research note (though these have to finalised as they get closer to roll out).
They also signposted me to FinnCap's research portal (free signup) and their research note.
I've been thinking this for a while but what is patently clear is that some are expecting the returns (and share price appreciation) to happen right now. The revenues for these products are yet to flow in and as the FinnCap research note states ...
"Whilst it is not clear how long the global demand for COVID-19 antibody and antigen tests will last, we believe that it will continue for the next 12-24 months at least."
The FinnCap research note stated that the UK-RTC test revenue was a binary event dependent on the test being "validated and CE-marked" and the Telegraph article announces that the test "passed its first major clinical trial last month, involving nearly 300 people and conducted by scientists at Ulster University."
So the binary event for the UK-RTC product described by FinnCap is a step closer to production. This explains the spike in the price today.
The CEO is talking about 50% margins for most of the Covid products.
I personally hold several Covid-19 test suppliers and I think there is still much more to come from them.
A strong day for Omega Diagnostics (LON:ODX) with over 7m shares (> 3 month average) traded by 11am, currently up ~27%
I'm guessing it's related to the news in this article https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/17/exclusive-game-changing-coronavirus-antibody-test-passes-first/
Omega Diagnostics is a member of the UK Rapid Test Consortium (UK-RTC)
(I hold)
Hi again
Another useful piece
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/922442/coronavirus-uk-to-trial-saliva-tests-for-asymptomatic-cases-evan-bioscences-candidate-enters-cambridge-trial-r-factor-rises-in-germany-922442.html
Regards
Howard
Hi All
For the CV19 related companies watchers here is an excellent and extensive list from Proactive Investors site. Well worth a scan.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/917772/coronavirus-whats-happening-in-the-labs-of-pharma-companies-worldwide-917772.html
Regards
Howard
Long article yesterday on the inaccuracy of UK antibody testing and how the health authorities are refusing to engage with smaller companies with promising products https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8326429/UKs-antibody-testing-fiasco-exposed-PHE-test-misses-cases.html
Mologic still not performing and Roche less accurate than promised.
That said, our cycle club has a deal for the Abbott antibody test at cost price (£55) with several happy customers so far.
Look out for news on new test kit (LamPore) coming out from Oxford Nanopore. Faster, cheaper, more accurate and more throughput than existing methods and doesn’t require scarce expensive reagents, currently undergoing final regulatory validation. If approved will be a game changer and render existing tests obsolete. Ox Nano kit has endless other useful applications as it is currently the most advanced method of reading genetic code DNA/RNA.
The company is Pre-IPO so best way to gain exposure is through £IPO. Valuation of Ox Nano and Ip (LON:IPO) have been held back by their association with Woodford so haven’t yet taken off. Ip (LON:IPO) also has other portfolio biotech companies that are doing well in the crisis.
Novacyt Sa (LON:NCYT) released a sales and regulatory update yesterday and an early settlement of term loan announcement this morning. I’ve provided a brief summary below.
Sales & Orders
Regulatory
Product Launches
Early settlement of term loan and convertible bond facility
(I hold a long position in this share, at the time of writing)
NCYT market response not at all positive - now under 300p. I monitor a few of these stocks and it certainly looks like the hot money has moved on with valuations falling across the board, as opposed to rotating from one stock to the next.
As ever with story stocks, to make good money you need to get in early and get out early, ideally at peak hype. Maybe a few will prove to be steady earners in the medium term, but it does feel reminiscent of the TMT boom where stocks were priced as if each would achieve world domination!
Jenson Button interview on Chris Evans show this morning said the F1 teams will be testing every two days during the race weeks. So in some key sectors there'll be a lot of activity but I doubt the hoi polloi will be tested very much, if at all.
Novacyt Sa (LON:NCYT)
The US Distributor web-site may provide an indication to the selling price of the test kits
The attached link below is for the Zika virus
https://www.arp1.com/genesig-standard-real-time-pcr-detection-kit-for-zika-virus-path-zikv-standard.html
Last post got cut off for some reason......
Hi, I started picking up a few covid-19 related shares in mid April as part of a market re-entry after selling everything I held in my SIPP during February. It's the closest I've got to pure gambling in a while.
I've got/had positions in the list below, a mixture of companies working on antibody tests, vaccine development, treatments for once you have had it and a tech play for app development. TBH I am out of my depth with a lot of the science and it is really difficult to know how to value these companies as they are all in Phase 1 or Phase 2 trials.
Avacta (LON:AVCT) - developing a antibody test similar to a pregnancy test and have a distribution partnership with the founder of Boohoo -https://t.co/HDbyrBbKaW?amp=1
Omega Diagnostics (LON:ODX) - as @PhilH noted a 60% movement today apparently based on nothing more than a Skynews interview, which he then put out a RNS saying there was no reason for the price rise. They are doing another antibody test for point of care
Hemogenyx Pharmaceuticals (LON:HEMO) - "Using its humanized mice, the Advanced peripheral blood Hematopoietic Chimera (“ApbHC”), which were developed to model blood and autoimmune diseases and to test treatments, Hemogenyx will seek to discover human neutralizing antibodies – antibodies that are typically developed by the human immune system to neutralize invading viral pathogens – that could be used to fight SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) infections."
£BGBIO - "On 28 April we announced our participation in a new UK national multi-centre randomised Phase 2 clinical trial initiative called ACCORD (ACcelerating COVID-19 Research & Development platform). BerGenBio’s bemcentinib was selected as the first candidate to be tested for its efficacy and safety in patients hospitalised with COVID-19."
Exited:
Synairgen (LON:SNG) - they have an inhaler which is going through trials to treat covid-19. A stop loss kicked in on this today, but I might buy back in if is falls further as it is in a wide spread of trails, including ICUs, pre ICU and they just announced a trail with home based kits. Results due in June/July, and I suspect people have just got bored of waiting......
Tiziana Life Sciences (LON:TILS) - working on another treat for COVID-19, but I closed the position as I just had too many to follow and this one I knew least about.
Tern (LON:TERN) - an aim listed VC company who have major stakes/owns Wyld Networks and DeviceAuthority. Wyld has a technology built on bluetooth which is being used for tracking peoples movements in a trial with a care home in Scotland (I think it was originally developed for marketing purposes at major entertainment events) and DeviceAuthority secures IOT devices.
Hi
Just a minor (but very important!) correction.
The test Avacta (LON:AVCT) are developing is an antigen test rather than an antobidy test.
Hi, I started picking up a few covid-19 related shares in mid April as part of a market re-entry after selling everything I held in my SIPP during February. It's the closest I've got to pure gambling in a while
A lot of institutional support for Omega Diagnostics (LON:ODX) today.
18 million shares traded and up ~69%
I can't see any news for them or Mologic
Try Avacta, Omega Diagnostics and Genedrive.
Directors of Novacyt are buying stock today.
A good synopsis of companies involved in anything to do with coronavirus which was published yesterday:
https://www.proactiveinvestors...
I have found another useful source of info at https://www.selectscience.net
This goes into a lot more detail about the science, but doesn't mention all the companies. More research required!
Interesting article about the shortage of masks in Germany and how they are re-using face masks by specialist disinfecting, washing and then drying in Binder GmbH drying chambers
https://www.selectscience.net/...
I don't believe anyone has mentioned £bvc - BATM can test for who has HAD covid-19 and who has GOT covid-19. Shares up more than 100% in a month.
Batm Advanced Communications (LON:BVC) Was listed in post #48. Looks a bit extended now, some of these shares are falling back now.
Novacyt has published a fy 19 update and 2020 outlook statement.
This stood out for me ...
"In the four months to end of April 2020, the Group achieved an EBITDA margin in excess of 50% driven by the success of the COVID-19 test. Should the current level of activity continue for the full year, it will be financially transformational for the business and orders suggest a continuing increase in the level of sales activity. Significant levels of cash are also expected to be generated from this level of profitability and as of the end of April 2020, the Group had a net cash balance of €9.2m (cash as at 31 December 2019 of €1.8m). Given the low capital intensity of Novacyt’s manufacturing process, a significant proportion of the Group’s EBITDA should be converted to cash.
In addition, the Directors believe the successful development, launch and sale of the COVID-19
test will have a positive, long-term effect on the business. As well as reinforcing the expertise
within the business, the Company now has a new and significantly increased base of global
customers. The Company is already experiencing increased demand for its B2B molecular design
and development capabilities and the Board believes these opportunities will extend to Novacyt’s extensive product portfolio."
Today's result seem to way off the forecast though, forecast net profit was €2.20, actually is -€6.60. I have not studied the figures yet but I can understand why the shares are down 11% today.
Are last years results somewhat irrelevant though given that they are pre-Covid? Since then there have been numerous RNS suggesting transformational sales at >50% EBITDA.
I don't know but it is a big miss and the market reaction is not good, shares are down 15% today. But are these tests not quite short term, what when there demand declines, maybe next year demand will be much lower?
To be fair it was a sea of red today. True on the longevity though, I really don’t know how to value this one. I guess they would have a considerable amount of free cash at that point to make acquisitions and to create return on investment.? And the amount of profit that is being speculated they will have is more than the current market cap.
PhilH,
Not sure whether it is appropriate to post a link regarding my financial analysis of LON:NCYT , which forms a part of my diversified portfolio. The file is a PDF document, showing worksheets of an Excel file.
1) Shows my likely assessment of weekly sales (Test units & values)
2) Possible financial P/L for the years 2020 / 2021 (my best estimate)
3) Valuation - What financial ratios should one consider?
How does one value such a company?, strong competition, a working vaccine is likely to diminish the need for PCR testing
The Link to Filebin is https://filebin.net/tcqziq3d1frkl8cc
Any comments would be appreciated
UK government seeeking deal with Roche for millions of antibody tests.
Public Health England found the test had 100% specificity.
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/roche-holding-ag-VTX:ROG/news/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200513:nL4N2CV3SA
But yet the Roche share price has barely moved so far to day (currently at time of writing its at 350, which is roughly the same share price as back on 20 Feb 2020 (when it was at an all time high).
Which considering much of the market is down today, I guess by Roche not dropping as well, is showing some strength. I was just a little surprised not to see it gap up.
Roche is a huge company and so compared to the other much smaller players a government contract might not bne that big a deal.
What I did notice was that several of the smaller UK related suppliers took a hit and I wondered if that was in reaction to the Roche announcement.
That said this is an anti-body test
But Roche is a £250bn company, I don't think a few UK tests will have a considerably effect on their profits.
Reporting on US FDA's shift to crack down on validitiy of Corona Virus tests.
Hopefully the vream should now rise to the top.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/05/05/donald-trump-coronavirus-testing-fda-vaccine-cohen-pkg-newday.cnn
Found the articles really interesting. Having worked at AstraZeneca in research ( now retired) like to keep the “ grey matter” going and keeping up to date with latest science discoveries, especially at this critical time of Corona virus outbreak. Thanks
Roche's COVID-19 antibody test has received U.S. FDA emergency use.
Roche claim a specificityrate of about 99.8% and sensitivity rate of 100%.
https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
I did read, several weeks ago, about a company called Biosure. Based in Waltham Abbey, they petitioned the government for funding for a finger prick test they were working on. They currently manufacture a personal HIV testing kit that supposedly, is quite accurate. Not heard anything since.
Expanding your theme of Coronavirus testing, I have been looking at a few UK listed companies with links with possible coronavirus areas of diagnostics, drug developers and inoculators and medical equipment. I thought I would share some of my notes. Sources have been from Proactive investors and picking up threads and titbits:
Diagnostic:
Calculus VCT plc £LON:CLC
4 of calculus ‘s portfolio of companies are working on treatments or products directly related to the virus. Two are private, including Mologic, and 2 are listed, including Genedrive and Yourgene.
Mologic have a link with Omega Diagnostics £LON:ODX
Genedrive plc £LON:GDR
- tests for TB, Hep C, antibiotic induced hearing loss in babies
- biohazard for USA military
—10,000 tests/ hour
-assay test , rapid results for SARS-cov-2, 30 mins
Novocyt SA £LON:NCYT
Has a contract with Yourgene which is gearing up to make tests for Novocyt.
Yourgene Health plc £LON:YGEN
Drug developers and inoculations:
Synairgen plc £LON:SNG
Interferon-beta treatment for COPD and viral infection
Faron Pharmaceutical Oy £LON:FARN
Interferon- beta treatment, Traumakine intravenous. Targets acute respiratory syndrome
Phase 3 trial missed its end points and re- trial started without glucocorticoids.
N4 Pharma plc £LON:N4P
Coronavirus DNA plasmid. Nuvec delivery system to act as a method of delivery for a possible vaccine. V. Interesting.
Pi world have a film of the company which presented at Mello 2018.
Tiziana Lif £LON:TIL
Just applied for a patent for treatment of lung inflammation due to the virus.
Been successful in China
Medical equipment:
Lidco Group plc £LON:LID
Heart monitoring technology
Tekcapital plc £LON:TEK
Intellectual property investor. Has Belluscura in its portfolio which has a portable oxygen enrichment system to treat patients suffering respiratory illness due to virus.
There are probably a lot more but I have just looked at UK equities and have bought shares in those I found most interesting: Novocyt, Omega Diagnostics and N4 Pharma. Horrible times for everyone.
Hope these are of interest for further research.
Hi Amanda,
Thanks for sharing your research.
I've been focusing on testing for the time being as my reasoning is this:
a) there's a big push at the moment drive forward testing
b) it's relatively straighforward to validate them
c) the demand for them is near term whereas the scientific community agrees that a vaccine will take many months
It's good to see some background on some other initiatives beyond testing and it's great when one company has a few irons in the fire, e.g. Roche supplies lab analysis kit and has its own Covid test.
I think it's going to be so hard to pick a company that's going to deliver the vaccine or THE silver bullet treatment.
What I've tried to do with the testing is to spread my investment over the lead players in key markets and to do that I'm looking for some form of recognition from an independent body.
So currently I'm invested in:
Novacyt
Roche
Parkin Elmer
Abbott Laboratories
EKF Diagnostics
Omega Diagnostics
Novacyt (Primerdesign), Roche, Abbott & Perkin Elmer were all given Emergency Use Listing by the WHO for their tests. What I also liked was that I was potentially covering multiple markets, UK, US, EU and possibly ROTW.
Novacyt (PrimerDesign), PerkinElmer (AutoImmun) are also included in the first round of test evaulations by FIND. I note GeneFirst are also included.
I was initially interested in Mologic as the government was fuding them to research a vaccine and when they teamed up with Omega Diagnostics to deliver the UK government contract and Omega indicated strong demand where they felt the need to increase capacity they were a no brainer for me. Getting a CE mark on the test suggests that they are going to be selling into Europe too? There has been a massive surge in volume in this stock over the last few days.
I like EKF because they are potentially useful to many test providers so hopefully they win regardless of which company lands contracts.
I think it's just a case of being patient now.
Best of luck
Phil
Great post Amanda. From your brief synopsis it looks as though Faron and Synairgen are going head to head on interferon-beta treatment. I like Avacta as it has a powerful cancer development pipeline to follow on from the testing development via affirmers.
EKF Diagnostics ramping up production of its PrimeStore MTM sample collection device used in the Covid-19 testing process. The company is in ...
"the final stages of establishing a UK production line at the Company's facilities in Penarth, South Wales, which could produce 12,500 sample collection tubes a day. Devices made at this site will be used in the UK."
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/ekf-diagnostics-holdings-LON:EKF/news/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200428:nRSb0479La
I hold EKF (plus Omega, PerkinElmer, Abbott, Roche, Novacyt)
Really strong performance by EKF in the last few months. And the market has relatively ignored them.
Totally agree, RNS content is impressive, and I love to see the following in news flow:
EKF DIAGNOSTICS - FULL YEAR PERFORMANCE IS LIKELY TO
EXCEED AND
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANTLY EXCEED PREVIOUSLY REVISED MANAGEMENT
EXPECTATIONS
Agree, they are largely ignored, but so were Dart and Games Workshop a few years back. Not saying these are in the same bracket, but they deserve a higher rating.
TT
Hi all
This site is throwing up interesting news and its up to date.
See Tiziana Life Sciences (LON:TILS) for example
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/917056/tiziana-life-sciences-upbeat-on-potential-for-coronavirus-treatment-917056.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/918197/tiziana-life-sciences-files-patent-application-for-potential-coronavirus-treatment-918197.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/918186/tiziana-life-sciences-files-patent-for-combinational-treatment-for-coronavirus-918186.html
I don't hold. Missed the boat because daily volatility was a tad scary for me, but will be watching for backup/reversal price movements.
Many other CV19 related companies are being covered.
REgards
Howard
Novacyt signs coronavirus test supply contract with UK government
"Under the terms of the agreement, Novacyt will supply its coronavirus test to the DHSC for an initial term of six months, starting from May 4.
Novacyt has initially committed to supply 288,000 tests per week to the DHSC for use in the UK's National Health Service, with the option to expand the agreement."
That's close to 7.5 million tests over the six months.
I wonder what the unit price is?
Plus option to expand and no doubt as UK government has given them the thumbs up other nations might look to use them too?
Also consider that on 15th April Novacyt indicated that ....
"[t]he value of the current order book, anticipated sales contracts and the growing number of potential orders means further significant commitments to manufacturing capacity are being made. "
and ...
"over the next three months, to increase production of the test to approximately eight million tests per month."
So it would seem there is no bottleneck in production and they are anticipating much greater demand. The existing UK contract for 6 months supply could be produced in one month at their indicated production rate.
Impressive production ramp up at Novacyt SA (LON:NCYT)
I guess any bottlenecks will appear in the form of a shortage of raw materials e.g. reagents?
Hi Howard they have described their efforts to tackle the reagent issues in the same release ...
"Research and development update
Novacyt has been working to address the current reported shortfall in extraction reagents
required to perform PCR testing through the development of a new “direct-to-PCR” extraction method prior to running the Company’s COVID-19 test. This removes the need for some scarce reagents and significantly reduces the number of extraction steps, allowing faster cycle times, higher throughputs and cost savings. The Directors believe this innovation should facilitate an increase in testing capacity for COVID-19, removing a current bottleneck in sample processing for laboratories. Novacyt expects to have this new extraction technology available to launch in May 2020"
I've been trying to crunch some numbers on Novacyt's contract win.
Firstly I'm not sure about Stockopedia's estimates for Novacyt for 2019/20.
Currently they are listed as follows ...
I'm not sure about these figures, with 38 million shares how can a 2019 estimated net profit of €2.2m and an EPS of 6 cents (which makes sense to me) tally with a 2020 estimate of €3m net profit and an EPS of 14 cents (that doesn't look right to to me)?
So I'm assuming the existing 2020 estimated EPS should be ~7.8 cents which would put us on a forward PE of 62 using the current price.
So what if the UK contract is worth £1 per test or €1.15, that's an order worth €8.6m taking estmated revenue for 2020 to ~€37m. Assuming a similar margin to existing estimates (~11%) that would convert to ~€4m net profit giving an EPS of 10.5 cents, a forward PE of 46, earnings growth of 75% and a forward PEG of 1.06
So there are a few things to consider here ...
1) I have just picked the figure of £1 per test out of the air. I have no idea of what it should be.
2) The UK goverment has an option to buy more
3) Novacyt is looking to produce 8 million tests per month! The UK order equates to 7.5 million over six months
I'd really like to know the value of the UK contract!!
How can I find that out?
Maybe £1 per test is a reasonable estimate give that the UK government paid £16m for 17.5 million faulty tests from China?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-spent-16m-ordering-flawed-coronavirus-home-testing-kits-from-china-fs7wdh82w
Phil
Given that Novacyt SA (LON:NCYT) has received both US & Indonesian authority (combined population of 600million), then I doubt they will have any problem filling their 8m/month capacity.
Using your 'finger in the air' £1 per test fee, that equates in itself to £96m per year, for a total revenue of £117m (adding to last years £21m) & an eps of 33.4p using last years net margins.
So a 2020 p/e of 12.4x
So it's just a question of how long before a successful anti-viral or vaccine arrives.
I think I might have my test valuation quite wrong. In this article in the Independent they report ...
"The two Chinese companies were offering a risky proposition: 2 million home test kits said to detect antibodies for the Coronavirus or at least $20 million (£16m), take it or leave it."
That's £8 per test!
I really need an accurate idea of the government contract value, there must be a way to find out even if it's under Freedom of Information?
Phil, I don't think Freedom of Information extends to all private contracts.
But we'll find out soon enough when Novacyt SA (LON:NCYT) reveals it's guidance for the current year.
It's 2019 results will be published either tomorrow or Thursday, as per the first paragraph of its January trading update:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/...
Novacyt have provided an update ...
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Novacyt-COVID-19-test-update-and-notification-of-final-results-ENGLISH-29.04.2020.pdf
"Sales
As of 28 April 2020, Primerdesign has sold, received orders for or has been contracted to deliver over £90 million (€103 million) of its COVID-19 test. This figure includes the contracted minimum amount of test orders from the recently signed supply agreement with the UK’s Department of Health and Social Care and initial orders received to date from the collaboration with AstraZeneca, GSK and the University of Cambridge.
Novacyt is now supplying its COVID-19 test to more than 100 countries and approvals for the test have recently been received from Malaysia and Ecuador. The Company continues to increase its sales level into the US market and is evaluating potential options to further expand its presence in this important market."
They are also delaying their final results due to the level of recent activity ..
"Notification of 2019 final results
Due to a longer review process of the financial statements caused by COVID-19, the Company
now intends to report its audited results for the year ended 31 December 2019 during the week
commencing 11 May 2020."
GeneFirst, a privately held UK molecular diagnostics company has had its Covid test evaluated in the 1st round of evaluations ...
https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/sarscov2-eval-molecular/molecular-eval-results/
If any one can analyse the findings here and put them in layman's terms it'd be much appreciated.
For example, is a test with 98% sensitivity commercially useless compared to a test with 100% sensitivity?
Thanks in advance
Phil
The 95% confidence limits for all of the tests on that page overlap, so the superiority of one test over another has not been proved. Also bear in mind that the "clinical" sensitivity reported is not the same as the sensitivity that would be seen in clinical use with real patients.
Thanks Dwit
So does the CI %age indicate confidence in the values described?
So for the GeneFirst test for the sensitivity it reads ...
100%
(95%CI:
93, 100)
so does that mean there is a 95% confidence in a sensitivity score of 100%?
How should I interpret the "93, 100" figures?
looking at the data presented in that table is there anything that leaps out to you that puts one test ahead of another or perhaps identifies a dud?
Thanks in advance
Phil
There are various ways to calculate the confidence interval that can be mathematically defined. However, in general terms it gives an indication of the uncertainty around an estimate of the thing you are trying to measure, in this case the sensitivity of the test. In the example you have used, you can be reasonably certain that the actual sensitivity of the test lies between the quoted limits of 93 - 100% . When the interval is quite wide like this, you can't be sure that a test with 100% sensitivity is actually any better than one with 98% sensitivity.
This announcement from Ekf Diagnostics Holdings (LON:EKF) looks interesting too ...
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/ekf-diagnostics-holdings-LON:EKF/news/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200427:nRSa8858Ka
Not a test provider but rather a component provider for safe handling and transport of materials in the testing process.
Perhaps more of a shovel provider in the gold rush
Omega Diagnostics (LON:ODX) get CE mark for Mologic's Elisa antibody test ...
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/omega-diagnostics-LON:ODX/news/urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200427:nFWN2CD04H
Omega currently up 52% on the day.
Thanks to Nick Tull for highlighting the relationship between the two back on the 22nd.
I do hope some others got in as a result.
I owe you a pint Nick
Hi Phil - maybe also look at Avacta (in whom I have a position) and Omega Diagnostics (ODX) and Genedrive (GDR).
Hi Shrew,
I hadn't heard about Avacta and Genedrive's efforts so thank you
Hi
This piece lists who is doing what in the labs around the world with regard to CV19.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/917772/coronavirus-whats-happening-in-the-labs-of-pharma-companies-worldwide-917772.html
REgards
Howard
Thank you Howard, some good stuff in there.
I been looking at the evaluations of tests and working backwards rather than at the PR. My thinking was to find tests that have traction in the scientific realm as there seem to be a lot of flaky tests out there
Hi Phil et al.
In the wild west of biotech and CV19 I sense M&A could begin to ramp up.
This got posted 37 mins ago.
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/biontech-se-NSQ:BNTX/news/german-biotech-firm-working-on-covid-19-vaccines-rejects-takeover-approaches-urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200425:nL5N2CD0C1
Regards
Howard
Hi Phil and others
Useful thread thanks to PhilH for starting it and thanks for contributions from others.
We all buy stocks for different reasons and timings of buys will differ wildly. But FWIW, I have been dipping into the market looking under a broad(ish) heading of possible investments along the CV19 supply chain. That is to say from respirators, to testing to vaccines and even online suppliers of food for locked down people.
If anyone is interested these are my current holdings.
Some a highly volatile and clearly high risk so not for everyone by any means, but might interest some.
Stay safe everyone.
Regards
Howard
Seems to be a big debate as to whether blood or saliva is the best approach. Think I would prefer either of these to a nasal/throat swab.
I had a swab test, it is nothing to worry about not as bad as I expected.
Find are collating test evaluations by other insitutions too ... https://finddx.shinyapps.io/COVID19DxData/
Interesting find, Phil !
But I'm struggling to comprehend the results. Take 'sensitivity' for example.
So what is a "good" number when assessing the sensitivity of a test?
Below are the sensitivity ranges for the molecular tests. Not clear if the variable width of the ranges suggests that the sensitivity of each test can be altered or that each test gave an involuntary wide range of results?
The red lines show the 95% confidence limits. The actual sensitivity of the test will almost certainly be a point somewhere on that line.
The sensitivity is simply the proportion of positive cases that will get a positive result. If 100 people with the disease are tested, then a 70% sensitivity will result in 70 positive results and 30 negative.
The specificity is the proportion of negative cases that test negative. If 100 people free of disease are tested with a test with 90% specificity, then 90 will receive a negative result and 10 a positive.
A "good" number for sensitivity will depend on how you plan to use the result.
If you know the prevalance of the disease, what proportion of the population actually has the disease, then you can work out what a positive or negative test means in terms of probability.
As an example, there is a section in one of the Imperial papers which discusses immunity passports which could help society recover from the pandemic. They indicate that the specificity of most "quick" antibody tests is around 90%. The sensitivity is similar at about 90% but that is not explicitly stated in the paper.
You are now going to test the entire UK population with one of these tests. How likely is it that a person with a positive test actually has antibodies? How many people will get a positive result but will not have antibodies? How many people with antibodies will test negative? What impact would this have on your decision making?
Some interesting UK articles on testing ...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/22/antibody-covid-19-test-coronavirus-home-kit/
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-top-doctor-urges-uk-government-to-consider-korean-antibody-tests-11973742
A new UK firm pops out the stories ... Sure Screen offering a 15 minute home test kit for use by professionals.
The Rockerfeller Foundation in the US had proposed a National Covid-19 Testing Action Plan ...
https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/national-covid-19-testing-action-plan/
The plan aims to ...
1) Increase testing from 1 million a week to 3 million a week and then 30 million a week (1-3-30 plan)
2) Launch a Covid Community Healthcare Corps for testing and contact tracing
3) Create a Covid-19 Data Commons and Digital Platform. Real-time analyses of resource allocations, disease tracing results and patient medical records will enable policy makers and researchers to make best use of available resources to identify the most promising areas for surges in testing volumes to snuff out Covid-19 recurrent outbreaks and identify the most promising therapeutic treatments and algorithms.
You can see the President of the Rockerfeller Foundation being interviewed about it here
I've skimmed the Executive Summary and taken a quick dive into the main report. This jumped out from the main report ...
"Coronavirus Tests:
There are two type of coronavirus tests: molecular tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection and
serological blood tests for antibodies. Molecular tests are usually taken with a nasal swab. The focus right now is choosing the right mix of molecular tests: highly accurate high-end PCR (polymerase chain reaction), middle point-ofcare diagnostics (POC) and low-end home tests.
Finding the optimal mix is important, but will evolve over time as new tests come on the market, with different levels of accuracy and costs.
Serological tests are appropriate for population-based surveillance and research projects.
Currently available serological tests should not be used for individual assessment of protection from future infection or back-to-work decisions."
No doubt increased testing for those that have Covid now is important but serelogy testing will be needed if countries want to use Covid passports.
ODX have signed an agreement with Mologic.
Nice spot Nick
Laboratory Corporation of America (LabCorp) have just won Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) from the FDA for a Covid-19 home test kit that they'll start shipping next week.
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-first-test-patient-home-sample-collection
Please be aware that there are a lot of test kits that have received Emergency Use Authorisation, biut I think this is the first home testing kit.
Results from the FIND testing are starting to arrive for the swab tests (molecular) ...
https://www.finddx.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/FIND_SARS-COV2_Assay-evaluation-results_17Apr2020.pdf
It seems the South Korean tests are the most accurate so far
but only 4 tested so far
What is also interesting to not is that of the five tests (only four results at present) four use the Roche Light Cycler platform as the testing equipment.
That's another uptick for Roche
This WHO document gives a sense of the amount of research that needs to take place ...
https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/Coronavirus_Roadmap_V9.pdf?ua=1
Dozens of coronavirus antibody tests on the market were never vetted by the FDA, leading to accuracy concerns
https://www.washingtonpost.com...
Hi Phil,
$MRNA could be worth a look, a US PharmCo who are working on a CV vaccine.
Share price was up 50% last week, partly on news of a $500M grant from BARDA (a US Govt. quango) to accelerate development. As a minimum this suggests their development efforts are credible.
Hi Brian,
Thanks for that. I think it's going to be much tougher to pick a winner in the vaccine race, especially looking at the WHO document I posted on the reserach effort.
I'm also wondering who supplies reagents for testing, there is a shortage and is be interested in understanding the market place
Here's a list of FDA Emergency Use Approved Tests
Four Serology tests approved by the FDA at present (anto-body tests)
Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, owned by Johnson & Johnson I think
Cellex, privately owned
Chembio Diagnostic Systems listed on the NASDAQ
Mount Sinai Laboratory, not sure about ownership
Chembio's approval gets a slot on Fox n Friends ...
https://video.foxnews.com/v/61...
There is Hologic Inc. HOLX on Nasdaq
https://investors.hologic.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2020/Hologics-Molecular-Test-for-the-Novel-Coronavirus-SARS-CoV-2-Receives-FDA-Emergency-Use-Authorization/default.aspx
However, I’ve not evaluated whether they are likely to be one of the winners or not.
If anyone is thinking past testing and into Vaccines.....
I notice today that the Initiative talked about in the daily government broadcast related to the vaccine trial being run by Oxford University (The Jenner Institute) is partnering with a company owned by Merck Kgaa (who are listed in Germany) to try to mass produce the vaccine.
Merck Kgaa seems to be different to Merck and Co Inc on the US stock exchanges so don't get confused between the two. I think they are totally different companies with no relationship but its difficult to tell easily from their websites.
There are many companies working on vaccines but this seems to be one where a mass producer is seriously tooling up.
I think its likely that any vaccine producer is forced to give up the details and that multiple companies will produce it in different parts of the world in a largely not for profit way so i'm not saying its a strong (or maybe ethical) investing thesis but its something to watch.
Hi PhilH,
Thanks for this, I also have have a position on Novacyt. Im abit worried that its down this week a fair bit. It looked like it bounced down of the 5.00 price afew times. What are your thoughts. Do you Know if there are any company announcements (quarterly earning reports etc) scheduled as i cant seem to find any dates on thier website.
Hi Sam
If you're worried about share price fluctuations in a highly speculative stock in a highly volatile market then perhaps Novacyt isn't the share for you. I'd suggest more then ever you need to be prepared to lose all of the funds that you've invested in them. If you can tolerate that then buckle up and hopefully it goes well.
Best of luck
Phil
UK Pays £16m for Coronvirus tests that don't work ...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-coronavirus-tests-symptoms-covid-19-testing-kit-a9470071.html
I saw that elsewhere, so £16m for 2m tests made in China, good luck getting the money back. Anyone know how much the Novacyt SA (LON:NCYT) tests cost?
Whoever delivers the ...
- anti-body test
- vaccine
is going to make a lot of money, so even if the big institutions have moved the needle already I'm sure they are riding a few horses in the pack, hoping that one or two will catapult as they hit the big time
- anti-body test
- vaccine
is going to make a lot of money".
Has the immune response to COVID-19 yet to be identified? Immunity can be:
This might explain why reliable antibody test have yet to be discovered?
Thanks Howard,
I can't even begin to answer your question.
That's why I'm interested in companies that have been assessed by hopefully independent 3rd parties such as FIND.
Hopefully those evaluations will separate the what from the chaff.
All the companies with WHO approved products are listed in the PDFs on the right hand side of this page: https://www.who.int/diagnostic...
Looking for new entrants to those lists or news flow from those companies seems like the best place to look.
CT
Yes the three comopnaies listed are the one's I've described; Roche; Abbott & Novacyt (Primerdesign)
Did you see the second pdf with the active applications for Nucleic Acid Tests though?
"SARS‐CoV‐2 Nucleic Acid Tests: progress of the active applications in the emergency use listing assessment pipeline "My feeling is that the Chinese firms had a massive head start on the other nations yet there are only three companies (all non-chinese) that have been given the green light by the WHO (so far)
https://www.who.int/diagnostics_laboratory/200409_eul_sars_cov2_product_list.pdf?ua=1
I recognise there are different tests but only three anti-body tests approved by WHO
PerkinElmer's test has been added (24/4/2020) to the WHO's Emergency Use Listing for Covid tests ...
https://www.who.int/diagnostics_laboratory/200424_eul_sars_cov2_product_list.pdf?ua=1
For example, maybe PerkinElmer Inc is a bit under the radar on this subject.
yes, the own EuroImmun which was in the list of companies in the FIND trials
FIND is the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics.
"We are a global non-profit organization driving innovation in the development and delivery of diagnostics to combat major diseases affecting the world’s poorest populations."
Find will be carrying out a review of Covid-19 tests that are being brought to the market.
They will be "conducting independent evaluations of molecular tests and immunoassays, in collaboration with WHO, the University Hospitals of Geneva (HUG) and others, to assist in-country decision making. Data from these evaluations will be made publicly available."
Here's a list of the molecular tests going to be evaluated in the first round
Here's a list of the immuno assay tests going to be evaluated in the first round
These lists give us a heads up on the companies that were quick to respond and notice that there are a lot of chinese companies (caveat emptor)
The table also shows which countries have approved which tests
I notice that the Novacyt test is included in the first list (referred to as Primerdesign Ltd) and it has the most approvals from various countries. That's promising.
Scanning the other list, other companies that stand out to me are ...
Cellex Inc, a US company that has EU and US approval
Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech, a Chinese company that has EU, China (not exactly a huge confidence boost), Australia & India approval
VivaChek Biotech, a Chinese company that has EU, Singapore, Australia & India approval
BioMedomics, Inc. a US company that has EU and India approval
Thanks for the great find & info. FYI digging a little more into these companies Cellex has 5 staff and is privately owned, BioMedomics is also privately owned and I'm loathe to invest in Chinese companies.
Useful article ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/coronavirus-tests-biotechs-battle-to-make-first-good-blood-test
There are concerns over the validity of some anti-body tests in the US given that the FDA
" relaxed its rules, and now companies can sell antibody tests without submitting validation data that shows they actually work.
The Association of Public Health Laboratories says that has resulted in "crappy" tests flooding the market.
"It's like the wild, wild West out there -- or wild East," said association CEO Scott Becker, a reference to the fact that at least half the companies making these tests are in China."
(See https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html)
Roche Holdings
Roche Holding AG (Roche) is a Swiss research-based healthcare company. The Company's operating businesses are organized into two divisions: Pharmaceuticals and Diagnostics.
They have existing Covd-19 tests but they have just announced today that are launching an anti-body test. (see https://www.roche.com/media/releases/med-cor-2020-04-17.htm)
I already hold Roche and they have recovered quickly from the downturn.
I'm on IG's platform and beginning to regret I didn't go with H&L. they don't even list Roche and have discovered there's quite a few more companys not on their list. No idea why.
Do IG Group (LON:IGG) list Swiss shares? Some platforms have more limited cover, even HL don't list some large EU companies. I was looking at using Tranding212 but they don't have many Aim companies but they do have Roche.
They are also listed on the USA market.
Thank-you Phil for the thread.
RHHBY is a Roche symbol on New York.
I hold along with GSK, AZN, an i-share Etf HEAL (on LSE) and various mutual funds devoted to Health Sciences.
A few weeks ago i looked at other companies producing drugs or products that were being used or developed BUT 'professionals always get there first'. Either the price rise was vertical or the Covid19 part of the business was too small to move the needle.
The effects are widespread. Bauer makes hockey equipment but they have changed their production line to producing perspex face shields. There are fashion companies that have moved their sewing machine teams to making masks. There is chloroquine too, malaria treatment, lots of generic manufacturers.
For your research the following is a list of New York stock symbols with the product on the right.
Yes, I was hesitant to buy into Novacy in Feb, having seen it make a big rise, but sicne then it's gone up > 120%
I was looking at Gilead Life Sciences as I had seen that they were touting Remdesivir as a potential treatment and I have held them before. The reports appear to be a bit anecdotal at the moment as some of the tests quoted didn't have a control group.
If you are that brave there is:
CODX (Co-diagnostics inc) N.Y.
I think I'm looking for companies that are at least making it into the FIND trials.
I don't think I'm brave enough to look at CODX ... but it could change