WTI $57.68 +17c, Brent $62.58 +52c, Diff $4.90 +35c, NG $2.71 -14c

Oil price

With the dollar running out of steam and the stock data providing a welcome pick-me-up, the oil price rallied after a down, if short week. Having been well over a buck down mid-session the rally left both crudes up on the day although notice the differential is still below $5. Those EIA stats showed a stock draw of 2.8m barrels against consensus expectations of 0.9 but inventories are still way higher than this time last year so no room for complacency. On the product side things continue to look very strong, with gasoline stocks down 3.3m barrels and refinery runs up to 93.6% as I said earlier in the week, refiners will be making out like bandits…

This time next week will witness the start of the Opec meeting so stand by for all the usual positioning and bandstanding as the various sides try to affect the outcome. Unless there is a genuine concert party of cutters expect a rollover of the 30m b/d which wont be adhered to…

Afren- litany of disaster continues…

In today’s statement Afren say that the recapitalisation will now be completed by the end of July…Remind me, when was it meant to be? 2015 provisional production guidance is now lower and high wide and handsome at 23/- to 32/- b/d sharply down from last years 36/- for a number of reasons. Nigeria is looking grim as is Kurdistan, we don't like to see statements like ‘a material reduction to previously published estimates of reserves and resources’ which refers to the latter but there it is. This stock remains uninvestable for the foreseeable future I suspect.

Rose Petroleum

For a long time now I have been receiving requests to follow Rose so I met up with CEO Matthew Idiens earlier this week to try and learn about the company. I certainly cannot be accused of starting coverage at the top, they have just raised money at the low, a senior director has just left and they have just drilled a duster with a high impact well. To be fair they needed the money, they had a disagreement with the individual and the well was a brave attempt at a high risk prospect which would have been a game changer. This is an initial look at Rose which looks an interesting project about which I will…

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