Thanks Edmund. Inciteful as always. 

If High Net Worth individuals have a lot of cash, at least some of that money will  be invested at some stage.

If the UK Banks are too successful, could they attract a windfall tax?

Re Banks - I'm caught in a variable rate mortgage (two actually from a buy-to-let) and get a letter almost weekly on rate rises. I suspect savers are not receiving such prompt attention (not a scandal as I should not be a blood sucking landlord, so suck it up). 

Georgia Capital (LON:CGEO) is flying, Standard Chartered (LON:STAN) on the move and others. 

Trouble is one bad news day and it all comes crashing down, (China was saving the world back in January).  

The US on cap weighted basis is undoubtedly expensive. When and how it changes is hard to know. My guess is it will happen over extended period of time (more going nowhere for years rather than flashy down move) simply as I believe the market and economic drama is likely behind us and the US and world is in a nascent expansion phase…a new era of you will…we have them all the time but we don’t have labels for them or confidence in them until they have been around for good few years (look at 2009/10 onwards, the ‘era’ started then for sure but we didn’t have a label or consensus it was durable or post crisis until 2013 earliest imo, and probably more like 2015ish and even later)

So, my guess is that the US will be a beautiful market for spread or alpha - long and short. I expect it to have  fairly massive dispersion.  Whereas, RoW on average I see as ‘beta’ or directional play. Mainly long developed markets (…they tend to not roll over and die as countries despite the gloomy narratives around some, mainly Europe and U.K.) and that bias too for emerging markets but they are always much more idiosyncratic in the risk they present (absent late stage global bull markets)

Who knows re next few months? The up impulse in nasdaq is so strong that gravity usually weighs. But this will be counterweighted by ‘endogenous liquidity’ dynamics more generally beginning to fire up again as we endure into our new economic and so market era.

In addition, the chances of an immaculate disinflation continuing are much higher than is believed. China is unlikely to find the mojo of the past 3+ decades. It has a massive excess of infrastructure and productive capacity relative to its domestic needs (absent a consumption revolution...unlikely without a political revolution!) and so its probably an exporter of deflation to the world for a long time to come. Chinese companies will use price as a way to retain market share and the govt will be supportive as it will want the foreign income to help manage the balance sheet recession the country will undergo (a la Japan post 1989).

Doubly in addition, pressure from commodities markets is likely to be more of the cyclical than structural nature linked to China issues. There is a dominant narrative of undersupply. My two reasons for why this is wrong so cyclical dominates structural are:

1) people underestimate/forget just how much China was the driver of a demand shock in the last 20yrs, aided massively for a period by an EM boom c.2004-10, and this is no longer in play. Yes DMs will invest more in infrastructure and domestic production (though less of that than narratives claim) but this is not of the need (originally anyway before a 'bubble' took hold), scale or pace of the China and shorter EM echo boom demands

2) Net zero, EVs, green energy (apart from nuke depending if you classify that green or not) if a fail. We want it to be but the technology and cost is not up to delivering what the world wants. There is no way that the world moves its vehicle use to EV such that battery metals explode. Ergo the whole net zero/green commodity complex will suffer from excess not under investment.

mojovision out

Personally after having been through various booms and busts in tech since the tech/dot com boom of the late 90s have found trying to time tech markets a fools errand and the best option seems to be pound cost averaging in investments trusts or private equity trusts invested in this area I list a few below who all have good long term returns you will have periods of low returns and falls but patience is a virtue that has paid off handsomely   

Allianz Technology Trust (LON:ATT)

Polar Capital Technology Trust (LON:PCT)

HgCapital Trust (LON:HGT)

Depends on your time scale but over long term the record shows tech has been the future 

Thanks again for another great summary. Interesting to see the resistance level the FAANG stocks have reached. I'm hoping this is another sign to support the recent position I've opened on the short ETP WisdomTree Multi Asset Issuer (LON:QQQS) ...note this is risky as its 3x short etp and also carries fx risk, but its one I'm comfortable with and see it as a hedge to my overall portfolio. 

My only concern is the Nasdaq100 rebalancing on Monday and how this may impact the index either negatively or positively. Bloomberg commentator suggests no impact either way, but interested in any other views.

Hi Edmund I have been reading a lot of articles saying money been flooding out of small/medium US banks into money market funds and said banks are having to borrow from the Fed at high interest rates to stay afloat, but the lending rate is eroding their margin so although solvent it will destroy profitability.

Thanks Edmund. Very helpful insights. Is it time to take profits in tech? Anyone's guess! The Nasdaq100  rally this year has defied all expectations (and gravity) - perhaps irrational exuberance. It must be due for a 5-10% correction over the next couple of months. If it falls another 2% (say 300 points) this week I'll start reducing my positions. But I'm still not ruling out an all time high for the index over the next 6 months.