Multibaggers with 10 Bagger Potential - Xpediator (XPD) Plans to Ride Headwinds with Affirmative Action.
Xpediator - Ahead of expectations and plenty of growth runway
12 Apr 2021
Up-date model 12th Apr 2021
Xpediator (LON:XPD) hit a new low at 15p in March of 2020. (lowest buy price 22p, additional buys at 32p, additional buys 49p, 57p ). ( I hold a long position)
Sales grew at 3.7% and actual reported profit before tax of £3.9m (2019: £2.2m) in a difficult year. First-quarter trading results are positive and ahead of management expectations
See the link for more information.
https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
The company also had a result call which more details linked included below.
https://www.investormeetcompan...
Gross margins improved from 24.6% to 25.1%, with the company suggested further improvement as site consolidation and integration continues. XPD expects to return to acquisitions in the second half of 2021. Covid unwinding should improve top-line growth and profit. Brexit has increased costs but the company has beable to pass these on to customers.
My Estimates are updated below based on today's news.
Sales Estimates FY20 to FY26
The evaluation model suggests 67-86p valuation for 2021, and 330-380p target for 2025. See the graph below
As always DYOR,
BSV
Xpediator - Ahead of expectations
29th Jan 2021
Xpediator (LON:XPD) hit a new low at 15p in March of 2020. (lowest buy price 22p, additional buys at 32p ). ( I hold a long position)
Xpediator (LON:XPD) reported today adjusted PBT will be £7.2m, which much high than expected (this 300% plus growth in EPS), due to higher demand in Nov and Dec. With an energetic CEO determined to grow Sales to £500M over the next few years top line and EPS growth look set to continue.
Sales Estimates FY20 to FY26
Evaluation model suggests 114p valuation for 2021, 300p target for 2025). See the graph below
DYOR
BSV
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4 comments
Xpediator (LON:XPD) upgrades full-year guidance to £8.5m.
https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
My model suggests a year-end share price target of 96p to 120p.
I expect a few more upgrades over the year.
As always DYOR,
BSV
Logistics is a very low margin business where it’s hard to differentiate oneself. Clipper have possibly managed to do it by offering expertise in handling the enormous amount of returned product created by online shopping. They are almost running repacking factories rather than a logistics business.
I get the impression that Xpediator may have some sort of boost due to the complexity of logistics caused by Brexit, but that is likely to settle and everyone will get used to the new ways of doing things so not a sustainable advantage. Their operating margins are wafer thin according to Stocko so no sign there that they have anything different to other logistics companies.
Profit after tax is going in the right direction but at around £2m applicable to the owners it’s still nothing special.
Seems unlikely that a logistics company operating on wafer thin margins could grow to be a ten bagger. Perhaps I’m missing something but I’ve always been sceptical about this share ever since it was being hyped at Mello 2018.
I’m reading elsewhere that the future of logistics is in AI software to optimise the most efficient grouping of loads as AI will be able to run far more possible ways of doing it than any human can. So, it’s a question perhaps of who has the best AI and how can we know that?
Hi GrahamF,
The company has already 3/4 bagged from its 2020 low.
It has sales growth, gross margin improvement, and net margin improvement going in its favour. The new shrewd CEO led Xpediator to acquires freight operator Nidd Transport For GBP4.6 Million, financed by Nidd own balance sheet. (i.e no cash cost to Xpediator (LON:XPD)).
10 bagging potential seems very possible.
Hope that helps.
BSV
Xpediator (LON:XPD) Up-dated model with 12 Arp Finals being reported.
BSV