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Archived articleThis is an archived article from 2023 - please note that any content within the article may be out of date.

NAPS Australia & NZ 2023

Welcome to the inaugural NAPS Top Stocks Australasian edition. The No-Admin Portfolio System (NAPS) portfolio has been running in the UK for the last eight years and demonstrated market beating performance.

The entire philosophy behind Stockopedia.com is not to 'tip' stocks. We don’t tip stocks as we don't believe we need to. The history of stock market returns shows that simple rule-based stock picking models have been far more consistent and effective than human forecasts.

So don’t view the NAPS portfolio as a tip sheet. It is constructed using a simple rules based approach with only minimal discretion. It is purely for the purposes of education only and does not reflect an actual portfolio.

You could create your own portfolio using this method or a similar one, but that is entirely up to you.

NAPS is a 20 stock portfolio from the highest StockRank™ stocks, diversified across sectors, rebalanced annually. It’s a “select once, leave for a year portfolio” that requires no more than an hour to put together.


Portfolio Rules

Diversified Portfolio


To ensure a well diversified portfolio we select two stocks from each of the broad economic sectors as identified by Stockopedia. We select the two highest StockRank™ from each sector and add it to the portfolio. That’s it!

However in order to ensure that our Australasian NAPS portfolio’s diversification reflects that of the Australasian market, we have included a separate sector, Real Estate in acknowledgement of its size and contribution.

Further, given their smaller size we have only selected one stock from each of the Telecoms and Utilities sectors.

In total the portfolio has 20 stocks spread across a diverse range of economic sectors and all with high ranking StockRank™ (QVM) scores.

Note: There is one exception where CRN is included in the Energy sector, rather than the Basic Materials in which it is listed. We explain why in the company’s commentary below.


Average daily trade of $50,000


There are a number of stocks in Stockopedia that have exceptional qualities, however do not have enough liquidity for investors to easily take a position.

The lack of liquidity in their shares means spreads are huge (assuming there is enough stock available to take a position) and therefore any trading price you are forced to take may not reflect the qualities of the business.

In order to overcome this problem, stocks in our portfolio must meet a basic screen that they trade on average above $50,000 per day to be included.

It should be noted that this is still a low level of liquidity, however it does provide a realistic chance for a retail investor to take a position in these businesses (even if it takes a few days).


No changes during the year


While a lot can happen within 12 months, not much will happen with the NAPS portfolio. In fact, nothing at all.

In the spirit of a quantitatively derived ‘no admin’ portfolio, there are no changes to the stocks included in the portfolio irrespective if there's good news, bad news, or shifts in market sentiment. The list will remain the list for the next 12 months.

We will at times provide a periodic review on the portfolio, however its construction will not change. It will remain the same until 31 December 2023.



Performance reporting

Though this Australian NAPS portfolio is for education purposes only and not intended to be a portfolio investors should replicate, we will introduce some basic assumptions to aid with the interpretation of results.

For calculation and demonstration purposes, our portfolio of 20 stocks will be equally weighted with $10,000 allotted to each trade. Total performance will include both dividends and brokerage ($19.95 per trade). This amount is selected for illustrative purposes only.

Dividends will not be reinvested and we will assume that the ‘buy’ price for every stock is the closing price on 30 December 2022.

There will be no rebalancing events. Nor will any additional capital be added to the hypothetical portfolio. The portfolio performance will be measured from the close of 30 December 2022 to the close of 29 December 2023 (the last trading day of the year).



The 2023 NAPS Stocks

All data as at 31st December 2022


Name

Mkt Cap $m

Stock Rank™

P/E TTM

Yield% TTM

Sector

Listed on

Incitec Pivot (ASX:IPL)

7,300

99

7.19

7.18

Basic Materials

ASX

BlueScope Steel (ASX:BSL)

7,900

99

2.98

2.97

Basic Materials

ASX

Coronado Global Resources (ASX:CRN)

3,340

100

2.53

23

Basic Materials / Energy

ASX

Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC)

9,010

99

4.83

7.18

Energy

ASX

Shaver Shop (ASX:SSG)

152

99

9.1

8.58

Consumer Defensives

ASX

Graincorp (ASX:GNC)

1,650

98

4.46

3.5

Consumer Defensives

ASX

Tabcorp Holdings (ASX:TAH)

2,390

99

N/A *

N/A *

Consumer Defensives

ASX

Michael Hill International (ASX:MHJ)

427

99

8.7

6.8

Consumer Cyclicals

ASX / NZX

McMillan Shakespeare (ASX:MMS)

1,000

98

13.1

8.04

Financials

ASX

Insignia Financial (ASX:IFL)

2,190

96

9.7

7.04

Financials

ASX

Charter Hall (ASX:CHC)

5,670

98

6.17

3.47

Financials - Real Estate

ASX

Hotel Property Investments (ASX:HPI)

689

98

2.12

5.76

Financials - Real Estate

ASX

Ansell (ASX:ANN)

3550

91

14.0

2.83

Healthcare

ASX

Monash IVF (ASX:MVF)

372

95

17.4

4.61

Healthcare

ASX

Lindsay Australia (ASX:LAU)

231

99

11.9

4.18

Industrials

ASX

Lycopodium (ASX:LYL)

270

99

10.0

7.88

Industrials

ASX

Hansen Technologies (ASX:HSN)

1,030

89

24.8

1.95

Technology

ASX

Data#3 (ASX:DTL)

1,040

90

34.5

2.64

Technology

ASX

Telstra (ASX:TLS)

46,100

91

25.8

3.38

Telecoms

ASX

Genesis Energy (NZE:GNE)

2,510

94

12.0

6.82

Utilities

ASX/ NZX

* No PE or Dividend Yield figures for TAH are recorded as they are yet to deliver a full 12 months as an entity post the Lottery business separation.

2023 NAPS Portfolio Stock Write-ups


Basic Materials

Incitec Pivot (ASX:IPL)

Incitec Pivot Limited is a manufacturer and distributor of industrial explosives, chemicals and fertilisers to the agriculture and mining industries

After years of challenges, IPL has finally turned the corner on the back of a strengthened balance sheet, a focus on improving free cash flow and targeting higher returns on investment from its divisions.

Business conditions were very strong in 2022 as the Ukraine conflict lifted ammonium nitrate prices (due to a cut off of Russian supply) and solid volume growth came from the Dyno Nobel Americas business from the Coal sector.

The latest annual result was a record for the company with it achieving an NPAT of more than $1B for the first time. This generated incredibly strong cash flows which supported the company's largest ever distribution to investors.

The company is now committed to splitting the Explosives and Fertiliser businesses into two separate entities. The explosives business will be the larger, as it accounts for 60% of EBIT currently, the fertilisers business will have the advantage of its #1 positioning on the eastern seaboard of Australia.

The other possible driver in the short term is the decision on the Louisiana located Wagamana ammonia facility. Launched in 2016, the site has been problematic, but last year was good operationally, allowing the company to benefit from strong ammonia prices.

While no final decision has been made on what they will do with the asset, last year the site generated US$344M in EBIT and could contribute a very nice payday to holders.

BlueScope Steel (ASX:BSL)

Bluescope Steel is a global provider of steel materials, products, systems and technologies. BSL has a long history of maintaining a StockRank ™ score above 80 since we commenced coverage of the Australian and New Zealand market.

Operationally to date the company has performed well. The latest annual result (a few months back now) delivered in line with previous guidance and returned strong fundamental metrics across the board.

It did though at that time start to warn investors of the pressures on margins in the US business and that the Ohio based, North Star Mill currently under construction could run 10% over budget. This resulted in them delivering a first half decline in earnings guidance for 2023 in the range of $800 - $900 million EBIT. Pleasingly they reiterated this target at the time of their AGM. The early flagging of such declines shows management are well across the drivers of their business, more so than its competitors.

Across the sector, results from US based building materials firms have lifted the pessimism around BSL. This is evidenced by the consecutive series of downgrades to EPS expectations from the 13 companies that look over the business.

But now BSL is cheap, has delivered great results in the past, is run very well and its price is still above the September lows which was fueled back then by the disappointment surrounding their outlook statement.

Energy

Coronado Global Resources (ASX:CRN)

CRN is one of the world’s largest metallurgical coal producers with operations both in Australia and the US, and it is dual listed on both exchanges. With a strong balance sheet and industry tailwinds, the company likes its prospects over the long-term.

It is important to stress here that Metallurgical Coal, unlike Thermal Coal, is used in steel blast furnaces. The company said that they expect the demand for metallurgical coal to grow 195% by 2050, with increased demand supported by growing Indian demand and new blast furnace production. Australia will likely supply 61% of all seaborne Met coal globally by 2050.

Interestingly for the minute, the price per tonne of Met Col is actually cheaper than Thermal Coal. The company is already diverting some Met Coal tonnages into Thermal Markets to achieve higher realised prices.

Like its peers, CRN has a very strong dividend policy with a stated objective of paying distributions between 60% - 100% of Free Cash Flow. Last year up until September 30, this amounted to US$793 million of which 95% had been paid out in the form of dividends, special dividends and the closing of senior secured notes.

While like their peers they’re cheap relative to their incredible cash generation, their future is intermittently linked to the future direction of coal prices. While working with Met Coal adds an element of stability, it doesn’t insulate it from volatility, particularly operationally as emphasised than by the recent rains in the Bowen Basin impacting Curragh production volumes and mining costs per tonne. 


Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC)

Coal was the standout sector in 2022, therefore it is not unsurprising to see another in this list.

Whitehaven Coal is focused on the development and operation of coal mines in New South Wales and Queensland. The majority of its production comes from its 75% interest in the Maules Creek project in NSW.

Like most other coal miners, it is cheap, well structured and is spitting cash. So much so that beyond the very strong dividends, in October 2022 it also commenced an on-market buyback of some 25% (240m) of issued stock. This is on top of the 10% on-market buyback they completed the year before.

In a recent update it provided production guidance, which has been hindered by the extraordinary amount of rain that hit the south east corner of Australia in the final quarter of CY2022.

In all, production guidance was reduced by 6.2% at the mid-point, however the market took it in its stride given Whitehaven has not experienced on-site flooding and has maintained a level of production continuity by transporting people to sites via helicopter to overcome flood-related access issues.

With a more favourable weather outlook and the strong global coal price, investors anticipate the company will successfully navigate these issues.

Consumer Defensives

Shaver Shop (ASX:SSG)

Shaver Shop opened their first store in Melbourne in 1986. They have since built a network of 121 stores across Australia and New Zealand. Sales have increased every year for the last 10 years. The pandemic provided a big boost to sales via their online channels as people were forced to groom themselves. Sales growth in 2022 was more modest at a rate of 4%, but off a much higher base.

The addressable market for health, beauty and personal care products is estimated to be $10B+ in Australia and New Zealand. Currently Shaver Shop accounts for only 3% of that. Whilst their store network in Australia is fairly mature, there are opportunities for expansion in New Zealand.

Online has been the recent growth engine and now accounts for 34% of sales compared to 10% four years ago. Growth will taper off now that lockdowns appear to be a thing of the past, but there is still considerable opportunity to reach new customers and grow sales.

Shaver Shop is a very profitable business. Their gross profit margins are about 44% with a net margin of 7.5% and return on equity of 23%. Dividends are fully franked and the yield is currently over 8.5%.

Graincorp (ASX:GNC)

GrainCorp is a diverse agribusiness most well known as the largest grain storage and handling company on the East Coast of Australia. It is also a crusher and refiner of oilseed and a refiner of edible fats and oil.

Last year was a bumper year on the back of the second largest east coast grain crop on record and higher prices. It delivered records for EBIT, NPAT and Cashflow, resulting in all time high annual dividends. The only negative was a $23m negative impact from its 8.5% interest in United Malt (ASX:UMG).

Investors should be aware that it is most likely earnings will fall in FY23, however earnings should remain at historically high levels. There are a number of reasons for this.

Harvesting delays of the 2022/23 grain crop in parts of NSW and Victoria due to several weeks of wet weather will impact both yield and quality. But despite these problems, GNC is still likely to produce solid numbers when compared to historical periods (just not last year).

GNC also said that domestic and global demand for feed and milling grade grain remains strong and that margins for the oilseed business will remain robust.

The next time the company discloses a progress report on its operations will be at the AGM in February 2023.


Consumer Cyclicals

Tabcorp Holdings (ASX:TAH)

One could suggest that TAH by accident has found itself among the upper elite of companies according to its StockRank™ though that would be a simplistic view.

Unlike many of the highly speculative listed competitors whose fundamentals resemble that of the trade they participate in, TAH has been able to cement its place as a profitable business and they feel they still offer the potential for growth.

Obviously COVID hit the traditional business hard, however at a Group level, year to date revenue is up 18.7% on the same time last year (July to October).

Further they are expanding their services (“pivoting at pace” is their words) towards providing integrity services and the monitoring of gaming machines for governments. The recent win of the Tasmaian government contract evidence they are gaining some traction.

In other developments, the government in Queensland (and now likely NSW and ACT) are making changes to the way tax is collected from TAH. The changes put them on a level playing field (pardon the pun) with their competitors and at the time price jumped over 5% on the news.

TAB maintains strong brand equity in Australia and therefore it is unsurprising that it supports a reduction in gambling advertising on Australian TV screens (which predominantly helps their competitors).

While ESG considerations may restrict some from investing in TAH, with a new focus, new technology and new management team, TAH will hope the odds continue to shorten this year.


Michael Hill International (ASX:MHJ)

MIchael Hill International is a retail jeweler in Australia and New Zealand, and now has operations in Canada.

Following an optimisation program post COVID, MHJ expanded sales margins (profit growing faster than sales - a rarity in the last year). Plus, they were also able to see a continued improvement in the Canadian business.

It's also investing heavily in a digital transformation, including a new dual language site for customers in Quebec, the majority of the company's revenue is still generated from the store network with some 90% of revenues coming from the bricks and mortar business.

The Forecast PE now sits at a little over 8x, which is quite reasonable with an ROE of 25. The forecast dividend of $0.078 is consistent with the company’s recently stated policy of paying 50% to 75% of adjusted annual NPAT out as dividends.

It’s also completing an on-market buy-back, where it intends to buy 5% of the capital back from investors. To date it has purchased some 10m shares from both the Australian and NZ listings, at a total cost of A$10.2m, representing 2.2% of issued capital.

At its AGM in October it noted that for the first 16 weeks of FY23, Group sales were up 27.5% against FY22 (up 15.8% on pre-locked down trading with 8 less stores) and margins had remained stable, The company hopes initiatives such as the continued digital transformation and the release of new brands such as Medley, will keep the top line rolling on.


Financials

McMillan Shakespeare (ASX:MMS)

McMillan Shakespeare is a salary packaging and leasing company. Aside from a hit during the COVID panic of 2020, their revenues and profits have been very consistent. There are two external challenges that they and their competitors must deal with.

  1. The level of car ownership. Sales of new cars had been gradually declining for a long time. Sales levels have been volatile over the last few years with lockdowns and supply shortages, but the overall trend remains slightly down.

  2. Regulatory risk. The benefits gained from these packaging deals rely heavily on taxation laws.

Recently there has been some positive momentum for MMS. The recent changes to fringe benefits tax for electric and low emission vehicles have made it far more attractive to lease these cars. Of course the supply issues remain with wait times of up to six to nine months for more popular models.

Their ventures into the UK market were not very successful. They divested part of the UK business in FY22 and are considering exiting the remainder.

They have been able to return large amounts of funds to shareholders via high dividend payouts as well as an off-market buyback reflecting their strengthening business position.

Insignia Financial (ASX:IFL)

Insignia Financial Ltd ( formerly IOOF Holdings Limited) is an Australian financial service provider which provides services such as portfolio and estate administration, financial advice and distribution, and investment management.

The platform part of the business is the largest, especially following the $1.5 bil acquisition of MLC wealth in 2021 which gave it the prized MasterKey platform. It also added an extra 400 advisers to the group, and along with the OnePath acquisition made in 2019, IFL is now one of the largest financial services companies in the country with over 1500 advisers and over $200b under administration.

The transition of the MLC business seems to have gone quite smoothly with the company already ahead of both targeted revenues and synergy savings.

In the final update of 2022, the company flagged a return to positive net flows into their platform. Despite this it still experienced a drop due to market movements (rather than outflows.)

They are also in the process of selling their Australian Executor Trustees business (AET) to Equity Trustee for $135m. Proceeds from the sale will go towards paying down debt.

While earnings are expected to come under some strain following the weaker market performance (both equities and property) over the past 12 months. The company has laid the groundwork to ride the wave should positive sentiment return to investing markets.

Real Estate

Charter Hall (ASX:CHC)

Charter Hall provides a range of property related investment services including, property investing, development and funds management. The latter being its largest contributor to revenue.

At the end of the last financial year CHC finished with $79.9 billion in funds under management (FUM), holding the largest sector-diversified commercial property portfolio in Australia.

While progressive updates are rare given the long-term nature of property, at their AGM they confirmed a 98.1% occupancy rate with weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 8.3 years. Their weighted average rent review is 3.7% across the platform which the company states is also in excess of consensus 10-yr forecasts for CPI (though over 20% of their agreements are CPI linked solving some of the inflation issue).

Further their top 20 tenants make up 56% of platform net rental income, providing some certainty over volatile short-term economic volatility.

In terms of outlook for the financial year ahead, FY23 distribution per security guidance is for the continued goal of 6% growth over FY22 distributions per security.They also reiterated that for FY23 they will deliver a post-tax operating earnings per security of no less than 90 cents per security.

Their latest portfolio revaluation program in December saw valuations across the group rise 0.5% representing a $10M uplift of the balance sheet. This was despite the office property portfolio being revalued down 0.5%.

Hotel Property Investments (ASX:HPI)

Hotel Property Investments is focused on the pub sector in Australia.

HPI's price and distribution has been a beneficiary of the exponential surge in pub valuations over the past decade.

It currently owns 62 properties across Australia worth $1.3b with an average lease expiry of 10.3 years. 90% of the HPI Group’s rental revenue is attributable to two main clients.

The main contributor is QVC (Queensland Venue Company) who is a joint venture between Coles (ASX:COL) and Australian Venue Co. The other is the Australian Leisure and Hospitality (ALH) group who Endeavour (ASX:EDV) owns a 75% stake in.

The close relationships are borne from a Queensland law that restricts supermarkets from selling alcohol without a pub licence. This tie-in with HPI solves that problem.

Recently HPI announced that they expect to deliver a distribution of 9.2 cents per stapled security for the half year ended 31 December 2022, a decrease of 9.8% on the corresponding period, primarily due to increased interest rates.

The trust carries a current gearing ratio of 37.5%, and while this is within the company’s stated range of 35% - 45%, it is higher than peers and no doubt contributed to the change in outlook.

Notwithstanding this, Pubs are seen as a defensive sector in uncertain economic times and HPI is exposed heavily to the sector.

Health Care

Ansell (ASX:ANN)

Most of us wouldn’t have known what PPE was three years ago, but now we are all intimately aware of it, its importance, and the difficulties that arise when it is in short supply.

Ansell’s revenue and profits surged in 2021 as demand for personal protective equipment (PPE) went exponential. They manufacture and distribute safety equipment such as gloves, body protection suits, and other PPE. 61% of their revenue is derived from the health care sector, and 39% from industrial applications.

Revenue declined 4% in 2022 as the COVID emergency gradually receded, however profits took a big hit due to a number of factors including:

  • Margins were compressed due to gloves sourced earlier in the year at high prices subsequently being sold at lower prices.

  • Supply chain issues, including some suppliers being banned from exporting to the US due to forced labour issues.

  • Factories being forced to close due to COVID outbreaks

  • The decision to close their Russian operations

It is a well run business in a challenging industry and has faced some particularly tough external circumstances last year. They have a strong balance sheet and generate respectable margins. They are also trying to differentiate themselves based on ESG factors like sustainability and addressing modern slavery issues.


Monash IVF (ASX:MVF)

Monash IVF is involved in assisted reproductive services and other associated services such as ultrasounds. Revenue has grown very strongly in the last two years. They have clinics in South East Asia as well as Australia.

The demand for assisted fertility services has been increasing, with the Australian industry experiencing CAGR of 7%p.a. over the last three years. About one in 20 births involve assisted reproductive treatment of some form.

The NSW government introduced a $2000 rebate for women undergoing fertility treatment at a private clinic and also paid fertility treatment leave for teachers, nurses and public servants.

Monash accounts for 21% of market share. Despite the challenges presented by COVID in the last year for both staff and patients, the business achieved revenue growth of 4.7% and underlying EBITDA growth of 6.9%.

The COVID challenges have not yet fully abated for Monash. High levels of COVID and influenza in July 2022 resulted in reduced services. On a more positive note, the Asian business is improving with Singapore now profitable, and the acquisition of new businesses and doctors will start to contribute. This should lead to an increase in the profitability metrics.

Industrials

Lindsay Australia (ASX:LAU)

Lindsay Australia have been transporting agricultural produce since they acquired their first three trucks in 1953. There are now two aspects to the business, transport and rural services. Rural services consists of a network of outlets that sell rural supplies to farmers, especially the horticultural industry. In FY22 72% of revenue was derived from transport and 22% from rural services.

Their competitive advantages include their expertise in fresh food logistics, and their integrated road and rail services. They also provide a lot of refrigerated transport by both road and rail. The last year has seen considerable investment into their rail capabilities. They have added over 100 refrigerated rail containers recently and now have a fleet of over 400 rail containers, most of them refrigerated.

This combination of rail and road transport helped them to reduce the impact on the business from the flooding that has deluged the eastern states over the last two years. Despite the floods, Australian farms have been producing record harvests which helped boost revenues by 27% last year and underlying net profits before tax by 94%.

The reported net profit after tax tends to bounce around, due to temporary impacts of tax credits and other one-off expenses such as the costs of the Brisbane floods.

Lycopodium (ASX:LYL)

Lycopodium provides engineering and project delivery services globally in the Resources, Infrastructure and Industrial Processes sectors.

2022 was a strong year operationally, fuelled by what the company noted as "significant projects progressing to the on-site delivery phase and new work won during FY2022."

Revenues grew 43% and operating margins remained strong at 17%. With an ROE of 28% many investors often wonder why stocks like LYL can trade on such moderate PE levels (Fcst 9.7x).

The answer is in the engineering discount often applied to stocks in that sector. The sector has a long history of companies going broke. Therefore an element of trepidation is often shown towards them. Investors should always keep a close eye on margins, and on future work in progress (WIP).

Fortunately LYL has a steady stream of contract wins coming through adding to its work book. And with some large African gold projects underway, the market was keen to support the story, and continue to do so in the lead up to 2023.

The company released FY2023 guidance flagging continued revenue and profit growth. The stock is the least liquid in this list just making it over our threshold, so investors should be aware of this if taking a position.

The company has said that it expects demand from companies in the base metals, gold sectors and in the global energy transition minerals to remain strong. The renewed focus on domestic manufacturing is also presenting opportunities for the Industrial Processes division locally.


Technology

Hansen Technologies (ASX:HSN)

Founded 50 years ago, Hansen Technologies design and provide customer information and data management software systems for the utilities, energy and communications sectors for a global customer base. They have a well established customer base, with their leading customers averaging over 10 years with the firm. Churn rates are very low at less than two percent with 95% of their revenue derived from their own intellectual property.

They are looking to grow their revenue from $300 million currently to $500 million in 2025, in part, through strategic acquisitions. They have had a long history of acquisitions, including purchasing Canadian software business Sigma for $166 million in 2019.

The business is highly profitable. They aim to generate sustainable EBITDA margins of over 30%, and in the most recent year achieved 34%. Their return on equity is a healthy 14%. These earnings translate into very strong cash flow generation. The balance sheet is very solid with excess cash flow used to pay down debt, as well as pay dividends.

The StockRank(™) is dragged down a bit by the Value rank. The forecast PE ratio is above 20.

CEO and founder Andrew Hansen holds about 17.5% of the stock.


Data#3 (ASX:DTL)

Data#3 has been a very strong performer over the past five years. Revenue has doubled and the share price has increased 3.5 times. EPS has also almost doubled and is forecast to grow a further 21% this year.

Data#3 provide IT services to corporate and public sector customers. Two thirds of their revenue is recurring and many of their clients have been with them for long periods of time. They generated A$1.0 in public cloud revenue and have a growing pipeline of large integration projects. They have strong commercial partnerships with leading vendors Microsoft, Cisco, HP and Dell and have received global awards from Microsoft and Cisco which is a key differentiator when bidding for new business.

Earnings in FY22 were dampened somewhat due to the global shortage of computer chips. Major infrastructure projects usually require networking systems from leading providers. This is expected to ease throughout this year.

Their balance sheet is very strong with no debt and plenty of cash. They pay a high portion of their earnings out as dividends and DPS has also been growing strongly. Their strengths in technology along with strong customer relationships puts them in a good position to realise continued growth.


Telecoms

Telstra (ASX:TLS)

The Telecoms sector in Australasia is very small. There are only 13 listed companies and only 5 of those have a market capitalisation above A$1 billion. Telstra dominates the sector with a market cap of $46 billion followed by TPG and Spark New Zealand with around $9 billion.

Telstra’s revenue and profits have been in decline for the last five years, but there is reason to believe the bottom has been reached and a turnaround is underway. These include:

  • Previous CEO Andy Penn implemented a strategy called T22 which aimed to simplify the business and strip out a lot of costs. For example, they reduced their consumer and small business product plans from 1800 to just 20. This strategy has for the most part been successful with 80% of targets achieved.

  • The business has been split into three separate units, focussed on fixed and mobile infrastructure and Customer service. This acknowledges that a lot of the value in TLS is tied up in its infrastructure. Adopting this structure gives them a lot more options moving forward.

  • The migration to the NBN was a negative headwind for Telstra. These costs have now been fully recognised and so this burden will be removed going forward.


Utilities

Genesis Energy (NZE:GNE)

Genesis Energy is a diversified New Zealand energy company selling electricity, reticulated natural gas and LPG through its retail brands of Genesis and Frank Energy.

The Company generates electricity from a diverse portfolio of thermal and renewable generation assets located in different parts of the country. Genesis also has a 46% interest in the Kupe Joint Venture, which owns the Kupe Oil and Gas Field offshore of Taranaki, New Zealand.

Formed in 1998, the company has two listings, one in New Zealand and the other on the Australian exchange, both with the same code. In this instance we will focus on the NZ listing NZX:GNE as that is by far the more liquid of the two, and ultimately its price (plus the impact of currency) drives that of ASX:GNE

In its latest update to investors, it noted that favourable trading conditions in Q1 FY23 has meant it has upgraded full year earnings guidance with improved hydro and thermal flows, growth in customers with reduced churn, and a lift in gas production, all contributing to the favourable outlook.

It's important to note that post depreciation and amortisation earnings for any utilities stock can be volatile due to accounting adjustments. This means metrics such as EPS are not particularly useful.

However these businesses do offer an element of stability within a portfolio due to their consistent cash flow stream, much of which makes its way to shareholders in the form of a nice dividend.


Elio and Chris prepared this article jointly.


Important Information: Stockopedia Ltd ABN 39 757 874 670 UK business registration number 0637267 (“Stockopedia”) is an Authorised Representative of Daylight Financial Group Pty Ltd ABN 77 633 984 773 (“DFGPL”) which is the holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFS Licence No. 521404).

Information in this commentary is current as at date prepared unless otherwise stated. However, please bear in mind that investments can go up or down in value, and that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. For more Important Information please refer to the Disclaimer section of this website.

This communication may contain general financial product advice. It has been prepared without taking into account your personal circumstances, and you should therefore consider its appropriateness in light of your objectives, financial circumstances and needs before acting on it.

If our advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, you should obtain a copy of and consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) before making any decision.

The authors hold interests in the following stocks mentioned in this article: ANN, IPL, SSG, WHC. This position can and will change at any time without notice.


Disclaimer

This is not financial advice. Our content is intended to be used and must be used for information and education purposes only. Please read our disclaimer and terms and conditions to understand our obligations.

13 comments


Avatar for J Skirrow

“In order to overcome this problem, stocks in our portfolio must meet a basic screen that they trade on average above $50,000 per day to be included“. Is it possible to screen for this from the SCREENS page? Is this functionality available ?

0
Avatar for Chris Batchelor

Hi there,
This measure is not directly available in the screener. You can screen on average volume which helps to find stocks with low liquidity.

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Avatar for J Skirrow

Ok. Thanks Chris .

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Avatar for Stu B

Thanks this is great. Really enjoy some Australian content on the fab Stocko. 

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Avatar for InvestTrader

Thanks for this contribution. I used to have a UK sub , so I would like to just mention that Ed changed the UK NAPS portfolio slightly in the last few years. I think the top QM and VM stocks for each sector were used instead of the top two stock ranks.  Not advocating this, just mentioning for those interested.

Also, I have tracked an Aussie NAPS for the last 5 months or so. Given it contains quite a few smaller stocks it held up really well - slightly better than ASX200 index before dividends.  Unfortunately the ASX Small Ords is not available as a benchmark in Stocko. - and I think it is minus 15 or 20%.

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Avatar for Elio D'Amato

Thanks for the heads up. Yes. We know Ed has tweaked the model since he launched it 8 years ago. 

But like any good scientific experiment we are starting with the original basic hypothesis and we will build on it from there (if at all based on results). 

You are correct in pointing out some of those illiquid positions, while they would have contributed nicely to performance, the reality is the lack of liquidity would make it difficult for even the smallest of positions to be accrued. 

That is why we introduced the $50,000 average daily trade threshold. While this is still quite small, a position of even $5,000 would likely be achievable at a fair price at that liquidity point. Though it has meant that we have some large cap hitters in the list eg TLS, BSL, IPL and ANN in the list we also have some smaller entities like LYL, and SSG which creates a nice natural balance of Large and Micro caps across the portfolio.

And yes it would be good to have the XSO , (ASX/S&P Small Ords ) its on our wish list for HQ to consider. We will comment on it in different forums (including this one) . Just as we did in the past Momentum Monday article where we noted the XSO had fallen 21.2% in the 2022 Calendar Year. 

Just remember though, the XSO is simply the ASX300 minus the ASX100, therefore when analysing the true performance of small caps it can fall a little short - but is good enough for most bench marking scenarios.

And just a final reminder, the Australasian NAPS list is not intended to be a fund that you run out replicate blindly. We do this exercise together solely for the purposes of education, so that we can collective learn from a shared experience (and help console each other if it ends up like another year like 2022 - which also lead to the underperformance of the UK NAPS portfolio for the first time in 8 years.  Not a bad strike rate!)

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Avatar for InvestTrader

Just for interest, I started the Aussie NAPS trial Port of 1st April. The XSO is down about 15%. The NAPS port is down 4%. A lot of the picks had high divs so you would be at least breakeven. 

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Avatar for Elio D'Amato

Excellent work! As an aside, people only seem to remember dividends when their price returns are negative, but if harnessed correctly, they are a great amplifier of returns.

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Avatar for Sagie5

Thank you.

This is interesting. Appreciate the analysis as always.

Will place a few of these businesses on my watch list. However, for now I'm not sure how this would best work for me as a short term investor.

Sagie

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Avatar for jonkingston

Glad to see you covering stocks outside of the UK. Australia is filled with some great companies but is often ignored.

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Avatar for Chris Batchelor

Yes there are many opportunities in Australia. We plan to continue highlighting some of them.

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Avatar for Jingili1979

Hi Chris,

If you look at annual rebalancing  it seems that QM90 works better from 2016, those who can tolerate volatility the pure momentum is the winner.

This leads me to think we should be able to filter for the Sharpe ratio in the Folios as possibly some negative correction instead of filtering for volatility at an individual share

Over one year the ASX300 out performed all QVM decile but not over the long run, it reinforces period of underperformance so one needs to look at the whole business cycle

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Avatar for Chris Batchelor

Hi Jingili,
As you have observed, momentum drove the performance of the QM90 stocks over that longer period. Most of the outperformance occurred during the 2020/21 period when many small and unprofitable stocks skyrocketed, especially if they had any sort of exposure to technology. Our market has a very long tail with a large number of thinly traded stocks. That is why we introduced a minimum liquidity level into our selection criteria. The indices are also heavily weighted towards a few large stocks like BHP, whereas the QVM performance uses equal weighting so that can also create differences when comparing the two. You are right, it is important to look across the business cycle. Short term anomalies can create their own effects as we have seen with the COVID impact. Interesting thoughts about the Sharpe ratio.

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