When I wrote my ‘Final Countdown’ piece 6 weeks ago I was hopeful that some of my 2013 picks would rise a little further on positive news to increase the virtual growth portfolio performance above the 30% or so gain it was showing at that time. How wrong I was. The main problem has been IOF that has tumbled on two pieces of bad news in that period; first a perception that their water permit application for Montana has been denied and secondly, an end of year update that has warned on 2013 revenues being lower than expected and plant roll-out being slower than expected (as per my ‘reset expectations’ earlier this week). IOF has not been the only problem in this period; FAST has dropped further despite positive news for 2014 exploration and farmout, SRT has dropped on lack of mandate/project orders for H2 and PRM has dropped after a trading update that did nothing to suggest near term commercial progress. In fact, the only member of the portfolio to have held its ground in the past 6 weeks has been GEM.

The net result is that a 32% gain 6 weeks ago has turned into a 15% loss on the year, turning the portfolio size from £90,000 to £75,000 – although it is still worth noting that the virtual portfolio is up 50% over the two years it has been running. This is a huge disappointment and in real life, I am having to take my medicine just as I am with the virtual portfolio. It serves as a harsh reminder of how volatile the stock market can be, especially smaller companies and emphasises that the risk warning I carry on every page of this site is there for a reason.

However, I am now looking forward to 2014 and not just looking to recoup recent losses in the virtual portfolio but also to generate some meaningful growth. My picks for this year are below and to begin with I have allocated a virtually equal weighting to each of them. This year I have also added a watchlist of companies that didn’t quite make the final cut. Some of these I will be following on this site during the year. The other change I might instigate this year, is the occasional intra year trade whether that is to lock in…

Unlock the rest of this article with a 14 day trial

Already have an account?
Login here