Paul's 2023 watchlist - 12 more ideas (runners up) for value/GARP small caps
I published my 2023 value/GARP watchlist here on 8 Jan 2023, being my personal top 20 value/GARP small cap shares that impressed me the most during 2022, whilst writing the SCVRs each weekday here. Subscribers seemed to like it, with 263 thumbs, so I’ve drawn up a second, shorter list of 12 more shares that almost made it onto the original list.
They’re all on my watchlist spreadsheet, which tracks how they perform with live share prices.
NB. These are not short-term trades, and I fully expect all to go up or down. I'm also expecting some profit warnings, particularly in H1 2023, due to weak macro conditions. That's factored into the shares I've picked - i.e. they're already cheap mostly, and have strong finances, so I would just ride out any short-term weakness (unless something really serious went wrong).
They probably won’t shoot the lights out, because they’re solid companies with decent balance sheets, on reasonable valuations, and many pay good divis too. So these are more conservative share ideas, not for big risk-takers, that should I think be fairly safe (although we never know for sure, as anything can happen). Hopefully if the list avoids any major losses, then it could do well over time. Although that also depends on market sentiment - is 2023 going to be a year that favours value shares, or gets all excited again about growth? We don’t know yet.
Anyway, see what you think - I think there are some decent companies here, which I submit for your further research.
View spreadsheet here. You don’t need to request access, everyone has access to view it (but not edit), then you can download & save, and modify your own version if you wish. If you like it, then bookmark it, which will save me getting questions about what is the link again! There are 3 tabs. I've almost finished the list of more speculative ideas on the third tab, but will post that up separately once I've completed it & reviewed everything, so it's currently just draft.
This screenshot below is a condensed version. The spreadsheet carries on further to the right, up to column N, where it tracks the % share price move for each share. Which could end up making me either look a fool, or a hero, only time will tell! Although to be fair, these are intended as medium-long term investments, not short-term trades. So that will be my excuse if the market doesn't much care for my 2023 picks. I usually pick shares with more of a 2-year view, than 1-year, as a lot of value/GARP shares do languish before eventually being re-rated by the market.
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Here’s the next 6 shares -
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SCVR readers will recognise all of these shares - all being things that I’ve been impressed with, when writing last year’s SCVRs. So to look up our comments on each share in more detail, just go to the StockReport for the company, and click on the "Discussion" tab.
Anyway, I hope you might find some interesting share ideas in here, to look into at your leisure.
Regards, Paul.
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6 comments
Thanks for this, very useful. The last list brought Macfarlane (LON:MACF) back on my radar, and this list made me have another look at Eurocell (LON:ECEL) - definitely looks good value for such a solid business. Unlike others in the sector, hasn't seen much of a rebound, so could be due a recovery at some point.
I am keeping a close eye on Eurocell (LON:ECEL) as well. I was interested in seeing that its supply to the "new-build" sector was only about 10% of its total. I had previously thought that with the slow down in the housing market it might suffer, but if instead people aren't buying new builds but are extending/upgrading their current houses things may not be as bad as I was predicting.
One I'll do some more research one, but a definite one to keep on the watch-list.
Where are the reports on individual companies listed at the head of your report? I do not like this format at all.
The reports you can find by clicking on the discussion tab on the Stockreport, for each stock. Card Factory (LON:CARD) there was one on 10/01/23.
Format not the easiest to read, I agree.
A list of the companies and tags would be helpful.
Thanks once more Paul. Your spreadsheet is definitely worth the subscription on its own, and I already own 5 of your 12 so it’s good to see they made your list All are long term holds for me
Thanks Paul I hold 2 of those I note the Cazoo is pulling out of southampton going to be survival of fittest for car dealers? Hopefully Lookers (LON:LOOK) cant take market share