SCVR Podcast - episode 1, 2023
Audio is here, and on podcast platforms.
Intro - hoping 2023 is better than 2022. Very attractive valuations now in small caps. Long-term should be fine. Short-term, I don’t know. Could be another bear market rally, nobody knows.
Tuesday 3 January
Hotel Chocolat (LON:HOTC) - salvaged 20% of its Japan JV. New deal with brand royalty receipts (unspecified). I don’t know why share price has gone up from 156p to 198p. Looks overvalued to me. I don’t rate the product, which is ordinary & expensive. Readers agreed in Tuesday’s SCVR. Maybe the business is trading well, as share has good momentum? We’ll see. Chart momentum sometimes links to good trading, and sometimes it doesn’t. Too expensive.
Bidstack (LON:BIDS) - really bad announcement, in legal dispute with their major distributor. Risk:reward looks much worse, so I’d ditch them.
Aptamer (LON:APTA) - 8% drop on profit warning. Looks like it’s burning through the cash pile, so looks risky now. But upbeat comments for 2023 outlook, as always for jam tomorrow companies. Worst possible time to be coming back to the market for fresh cash. Existing shareholders are lambs to slaughter. I would ditch anything like this, and you can always buy back once they’ve refinanced (often at huge discounts). Delisting risk due to concentrated shareholder register.
Cineworld (LON:CINE) - looks bust. Again it says existing equity might be heavily diluted, or even worth nothing. Why take the risk? Trying to sell itself as a going concern. Massive debt ranks ahead of equity legally, remember. Lenders calling the shots. Why take the risk?
Graham wrote an interesting review of UK Indices in this report. AIM and NASDAQ both dropped by about a third. Bargains now?
Reader comments mentioned. We like subscriber reviews of their own portfolios, thanks for posting. I name check some of our favourite subscribers, posting good comments. Thanks to MrContrarian for his excellent early morning snapshots.
Wednesday 4 January
Very quiet for news.
Heiq (LON:HEIQ) - never liked this. Overpriced float, and profits since vanished. Poor end to 2022, now loss-making. Turnaround potential? Possibly. Balance sheet looks quite strong, albeit red flags over high inventories and receivables. CEO buying, discussed in the comments section. 50 projects in pipeline. I’ll keep…
