Saga - SAGA - general discussion
Hi, it's Paul here. I'm just trialling an idea, to see if people take to it. Instead of discussion all getting sucked into the SCVRs, I thought let's have some general discussion threads for individual companies, so that we can share news & views any time.
Please feel free to post anything about Saga (LON:SAGA) in the comments to this thread.
Rational bull & bear views welcomed. Please keep it civil (that's a message to self as much as anyone else!) ;-)
I'm fed up with the poor quality of nonsense on free bulletin boards elsewhere, so hope we can have a more constructive discussion here instead.
Regards, Paul.
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122 comments
CamRaid....A call to one of the main cruise holiday companies would probably give you some info on whether all the cabins are being used or on limitations still.
They are very knowledgeable and I have been booking family holidays on cruises for many years before the pandemic but not quite ready to return just yet.
Where do you find your occupancy stats?
If you go to the Saga website and click on individual cruises you can click on availability. It tells you how many rooms of each type are available for each cruise. Each ship has 554 rooms. I worked them out myself.
I was looking at the cruises this morning and did some random checks.
6 August, Croatia and Med. 32 Cabins available from a total of 554. 94% occupancy.
31 August, Norway. 15 cabins available from 554. 99.8% occupancy.
10 July, Greenland. 45 available cabins from 554. 92% occupancy.
Looking further out:
11 Sep 2023, Late Summer Adventure, 287 rooms available from 554. 48% occupancy.
I don’t have time to do more but I think this shows the demand for the cruises. Near term they appear almost fully booked.
Almost 18 months ahead is 50% booked.
One question is are they opening all 554 rooms as available or are they running a reduced capacity due to C19 restrictions? I am unsure.
However, I would assume/hope that the cruises they are running are viable/profitable and these occupancy levels seem reassuring to me.
Not very encouraging news for Saga shareholders or potential cruisers in Telegraph today https://www.telegraph.co.uk/mo...
Ouch.
Yes I read that (behind a paywall) and thought, you wouldn't catch me on a Saga (LON:SAGA) cruise if they are dictating draconian COVID curbs as in that article, at least inform your customers up front, having to wear a mask while sat down until you are served, for what purpose?
I checked the website after reading it and its very vague of the rules. Not a good advertisement.
Though others might see their stong line on covid protections as a postive. And the thing that would really hit cruise earnings is a significant outbreak on a cruise ship.
I see Lady de Hann has just purchased £50k worth of shares.
I am sure she hasn't done it to make money she needs for her pension, but hopefully it sends a positive message to the market.....every little helps as they say.
For someone with such wealth it seems like such a nominal amount.
Good to see the family investing but it doesn't make much sense to me.
Is this not a concern for everyone?
"The reported loss before tax for 2021/22 of £23.5m was materially better than
the £61.2m loss in the prior year, mainly due to significantly lower
restructuring costs, as well as the £59.8m goodwill impairment included in
the 2020/21 results."
Does that actually mean that the trading results for 21/22 are worse than 20/21?
Yes, if you look at the underlying numbers, the PBT has swung from a £17.1m profit to a £6.7m loss, largely due a downturn in the Insurance business.
It's just the management being biased towards the positive results as always. You got a point and it should be a warning sign that even their insurance business is operating at a loss, but in the grand scheme of things, where you're looking at a company like this with a overall good track record that took a beating due to the hostile environment, those years can be written off to a certain extent IMO. If you do find the reason why their revenues decreased and cost increased in the insurance business, and this can be extrapolated into the future I would be worried. I don't know if that's the case though, but from what I see in the numbers (and this is as shallow as an analysis can get) it just seems like a slight underperformance in the insurance segment. In the grander scheme of things their insurance business is still not what it once was but the bets are hedged on the travel segment to recover.
https://apple.news/ALMnONPNmTt...
Sad news and never nice to see mass redundancies. I see little read across to £SAGA; if anything it shows that the company was lucky to have its insurance business propping up the rest of the business over the last few years (as compared to the £100m annual losses referenced by P&O in the video to its employees, with the requirement that the business losses were funded by a parent who presumably have now had enough)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/bus...
Yes sad news. Luckily saga is more diversified than P&O. Fuel prices are probably what has pushed P&O over the edge.
I think the other big problem for P&O is reduced freight to the EU. Freight used to make up a big part of the profits.
Has anyone done any analysis on the potential impact of rising fuel prices? Concerned that the number of fuel oil swaps has fallen from 120 at a 50-100% hedge (2019) to just 22 at 25% in the latest interims.
Well spotted on 27.
I was just wondering about impact of fuel cost increases on Saga over on the SCVR.
Even if some of the fuel cost is hedged, how certain is it that the counter party is good for it in the current climate?
And I guess the food costs are completely unhedged.
No position myself. But was wondering whether it had dropped so far it was now a bargain. Still too risky and I think that if I held I would be considering getting out at least in part if not altogether.
Very good question on_27. Sadly I don't have a researched answer. My finger in the air guesses would be that:
1. margins on cruises are good enough to cover fuel price increases
2. fuel costs will be a smaller %age of total costs on a cruise ship than on a plane (no need to use fuel to keep the ship in the sky!)
But of course I'd be happy to find out that I am wrong if such is the case.
Also, can we still believe that people will continue to book cruises given
1. fears about wars spreading further
2. worries about cost of living increases vs limited pensions increases
3. returning worries about covid - increasing cases again and a recent ship that had to return to port because of covid cases on board
I hold and am confident in Paul Scott's judgement that it is cheap. But a recovery in the share price does seem to be taking its time
I suspect we may be able to develop some answers from the below screenshotted presentation .
As I read it the £40m per ship EBITDA is derived from c.£89m turnover per ship
That means £49m of operating costs & marketing.
It also says that if fuel increases 10% then ebitda reduces by .5m per ship. (Does this mean base fuel use is c.£5m per ship?):
4th November 19 is the base date. Brent crude 62.52 yesterdays price (a mean avg would be better) 106.6 = 70% increase so a reduction of 3.5m ebitda per ship (assuming Brent crude moves in line with marine oil).
This means that the target scenario of 40m ebitda per ship reduces to 36.4m.
Note this back in 2019 when fuel swaps were higher? I suppose the erosion of EBITDA would be greater now due to the lack of fuel swaps. I'm not sure how to read them on the balance sheet it indicates .2m which is well down on 2020 period? Although if no protection is assumed then I'm still only getting 3.5m erosion of ebitda per ship based on 70% increase in fuel and my £10m guess above.
We know one of the ships was effectively sailing for free over the last month which will impact all of the above -£9.5m rev + £4m of operating costs that still need to be paid.
Allowing for that plus the higher ticket prices and guided 86% loadings. I get around £37.6 Ebitda for the first half (assuming all costs incurred in a linear fashion throughout the year)
We also know that Saga were paying for testing, extra cleaning, other covid related refunds transfers etc etc. Food costs are also increasing dramatically so operating costs are bound to have gone up. From memory they've also fixed at at a higher interest rate.
Perhaps we could x operating expenses less fuel x an inflation figure of say 8% = 2.5m per ship in the base scenario. A lot of these costs must be fixed regardless of occupancy of the ship.
So potentially takes ebitda down to 36.35 in the first half.
If you can hold any weight on the above it actually looks better than I was expecting. If SAGA can sail both ships at say £314 per ticket at say 85% loadings in the second half. I think full year ebit could be above 40m - 45m per ship.
PBT is guided at 20m per ship based on 40m ebitda on the same presentation.
I suppose the risks abound with this one & its tour segment: fuel, covid & general inflation are the ones that spring to mind.
However I expect the half year results will be better than the second half of last year and that cruise should revert to at least the base case by the end of the year.
Thanks for this very useful analysis
This share is proving itself to be a complete dog. Always underperforms it's peers on both up days and downdays.
Chart looks dreadful.. There is clearly a massive sell wall at 320p as everytime it gets there it just gets smashed back down again.
my favourite share and largest in my portfolio . Also have a large position in International Consolidated Airlines Sa (LON:IAG) which is an absolute bargain at todays prices
If you are short term trading then you would sell at 320p and buy back around 285p.
If you are holding for the long term don’t worry. So long as the support below isn’t broken then the trend is up.
All of the above is with the Caveat that Russia invading Ukrain is going to drive all stocks down.
doctor dave says: covid has morphed into the endemic equilibrium we expected. Mortality is now just higher than flu. Get your Fluvid vaccine each year and get on that boat! I see SAGA up 300% in two years and I have 5G talking my talk. The undervaluation is fear pure and simple.
Possibly stating the obvious here but Saga has just completed a head and shoulder bottom confirming the bottom of a long term rising channel.
Also of possible interest. The RSI peaks have been falling for over a year. However it may have changed to a rising trend which would bode well for future gains (too early to be sure).
Saga may consolidate in the near future, after strong recent gains, but generally it is still near the bottom of a long term rising channel with plenty of potential in my opinion (I hold).
Have to disagree with this. SAGA has been in a pretty brutal downtrend since June 2021 making a series of lower highs and lower lows. I'm currently struggling to see what the catalyst will be for it to re-rate. Maybe many people are in a position to have money sitting around doing nothing for years hoping this one will turn around. I don't unfortunately. Good Luck
Credit Suisse raises target to 428p
Presuming that the Saga cruise website is accurate (a significant presumption I recognise, but I’m not clear why they would hide cabin availability to prospective customers) then my look at the cruise ship trips is quite encouraging. Every cruise I looked at already had over 80% occupancy, many over 90%. So long as there is no major Covid panic this year…again an assumption, but there appears to be good reason to think that much of the world’s response to Covid is calming, and the significance of the virus is waning, then this already looks set to be a very positive year for the travel business…which will also give a boost to the insurance side through travel insurance. There still must be plenty of older people who are waiting to have more confidence and certainty until they they feel ready to book.
Based on all the oldsters I know they all seem to be as keen if not keener than the youngsters to get on life and make up for lost time during covid ref p a r t y ing
Me ... I don't party much ... and disregard it. I enjoy 'doing stuff'. Anyway, I am just me and, on my own, I don't make much of a market.
I just wanted to register a protest. There are surely easily enough who see the world differently from me for Saga to be able to stay in business.
Hello all, I’ve got a boat load of SAGA averaging about £2 but have been adding more again on the recent indiscriminate sell off to £2.40-50 ish.
Is it just me or does anyone else think that the market just doesn’t seem to know how to value this at the moment?
Does anyone have any opinion on why Saga could be so lowly valued currently and also why it’s also so volatile? Seems very odd to me and there must be a sell wall currently/ institution selling down.
Anyhow, hopefully this comes good over the next year or two. I don’t know wether I have lost the plot but I don’t see why this can’t get to £8-10 a share in the next couple of years.
All the best
I think the market very well knows how to value saga unfortunately. Don’t get me wrong I have recently added here for the first time but I have added on the basis this is a somewhat risky investment.
The facts of the matter are the enterprise value here is over 1 billion and this is a highly indebted company. The company has a shockingly bad recent history with regard to shareholder returns over the last few years.
Based on the above I see the rationale for hoping that if everything goes well the share price could re-rate but equally if the insurance side were to struggle it’s a fact that shareholders could easily be wiped out here. So imho it’s a bit ridiculous to think this somewhat basket case company based on the recent past deliverance has been completely undervalued by the market.
Looking at the year just starting it appears even the company management who have got it miserably wrong ref their hopes for the year just finished appear to expecting the travel side of the business will make zero profits. So whilst I am happy to take the risk of investing here I am well aware I could be wiped out at a stroke and this possibility is at present sensibly holding back any short term shareprice recovery.
Interesting points and always good to hear others points of view.
I’ll take a stab at the reason for the low valuation.
Firstly, part of the rationale for investing last summer was the reopening trade and in the case of Saga the bounce from the opening of the travel business where their demographic were the demographic to get vaccinated early on. As we know that was predicated on no new problematic variants. So, due to new variants that didn’t work out.
But secondly, it’s worse than that. Due to the timing of the booster doses at least part of their demographic will already have lost a significant amount of their protection. That coupled with a much more transmissible variant means that the probability of outbreaks on their ships is increasing significantly. It doesn’t need the outbreak to be life threatening, just holiday wrecking. If that happens then the negative publicity could tank the share price.
Hopefully, that doesn’t happen and it’s hard to estimate the risk. But this elevated level of risk is the principle reason that I think they are best avoided for now.
G
I feel a little let down by Saga. I’ve waited years to get to the 50’s and now they no longer give away a free Parker pen.
LOL
My thoughts would probably get removed
Is anyone else frustrated with Saga's marketing efforts? I'm a shareholder and marketing professional, so was keen to see their new strategy, tv ads and data marketing promises. So far I can't tell whether they've launched their new brand or not, I've seen their TV ad twice and think it's aimed at a niche market in the over 50's (not where the biggest opportunity lies) and they spend a fortune sending the previous owner of my house a heavy brochure every couple of weeks when they moved out almost six years ago. Total incompetence ... any thoughts?
" it's aimed at a niche market in the over 50's (not where the biggest opportunity lies)"
That's what SAGA does, provide services to the over 50's market.
Imagine being a shareholder and not knowing that this business has been solely focused on the over 50's for the last 70 years
Hardly a niche market either. Probably the biggest market for cruises.
Well that may be true…but I suspect that the guarantee of a cruise without younger adults or children will be a significant attraction for many older people…
I suspect that the guarantee of a cruise without younger adults or children will be a significant attraction for many older people
Jeez ... I am achingly old ... seriously so ... I think it could be fatal. I've no idea how it happened, really. Just crept up on me, unawares.
But absence of younger adults (and their dubious behaviour), let alone children, is certainly not something that I would see as a benefit in any activity. I prefer to spend my time among the vital and the energetic, even if in somewhat sedentary mode. I'm absolutely sure that I would utterly detest the Saga experience. The idea of it fills me with horror.
Are we expecting a trading update this week?
Maiden purchase here last week as travel looking brighter now. Price has moved nicely above 50d MA. P/E and PEG are miserly. Still 35% below 52wk high so a lot of catching up to do.
Jan 16 (Reuters) - The United Kingdom is drawing up plans under which people will not be legally bound to self-isolate after catching COVID-19, The Telegraph reported on Sunday.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to permanently revoke emergency coronavirus laws as Britain's COVID-19 cases continue to fall, the report said, adding official guidance would remain but would not result in fines or legal punishment if ignored.
The plans will be worked up over the coming weeks, with an announcement expected as early as the spring, the report said.
Last week, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said COVID-19 self-isolation in England will be cut to five days from seven if someone tests negative twice.
Johnson is also set to lift Plan B COVID-19 restrictions, introduced last month to slow the spread of the Omicron variant, according to an earlier Telegraph report.
Desperate to divert attention from his parties! Cases are thankfully falling, but they still remain at about twice the previous peak over Christmas 2020/21, when restrictions were far stricter than now.
"but they still remain at about twice the previous peak over Christmas 2020/21, when restrictions were far stricter than now."
Just type covid cases south africa and covid cases uk into google - look at the graphs - its reasonably clear to me that the uk is heading down quickly in a simailr manner to what has already happened in south africa as they are 2-3 weeks ahead of us. As with any prediction i do run the risk of ending up with egg on my face if the numbers dont come back down pronto
The update at the end of the month will be interesting. I do wonder if the market will remain cautious even if the update is very positive.
The update from Boris today that we will push on without restrictions is reassuring.
New variants remain a risk.
Saga (LON:SAGA) is one of my larger positions but looking at the reopening trade over the holidays I struggled to find a better punt than £SAGA.
Looking at their website for cruises to leave in the next few moths i was surprised at the small number of cabins left for sale. The Spirit of Adventure and Discovery have 554 cabins each and for the 7 cruises i looked at the cabin availability varied between 37 and 149 . I thought this was more than acceptable and would expect these spaces to fill up if/when we get more good news re Covid and Omicron. I didnt think it worth looking in more detail at potential revenue per cabin etc yet as hopefully this will improve fairly quickly. Also i only had a quick scan of the River Cruise ships and the occupancy position again looked pretty good.
I would be interested to hear of anyone crunching any numbers in more detail.
Richard
I’m adding to my position on Saga (LON:SAGA) I’d now call it a mid sized position. Like you I can’t find a better reopening travel sector investment.
Short term I think it will break through £4.50 Longer term £6 to £7 is on the cards.
I’m adding to my position on Saga (LON:SAGA) I’d now call it a mid sized position. Like you I can’t find a better reopening travel sector investment.
Short term I think it will break through £4.50 Longer term £6 to £7 is on the cards.
Paul still seems optimistic that we could be looking at longer term £1 eps with a PE of 12.
So fingers crossed on £12.00 ! and if we are that fortunate, I will find it impossible to run it all the way up without top slicing after what we have been through recently.
I also added just before Christmas.
Recent statement on Saga website. I'd have thought any cruises touching France will be impacted also if this kerfuffle lasts much longer. Also, Saga's booking page talks of discounts of 20-35% on almost all departures throughout 2022 but I lack the resources to gauge how these headline figures translate to real-world discounts or whether they claim this every year.
And a tip to who copied a post from another board: be very vary of a random poster who slips into the we/us/our-speak! They tend to have fallen hopelessly in love with a stock and see no downside (or, far worse, are an employee breaking compliance rules).
Up-to-date travel information
Spirit of the Rhine Cruises
20th December Christmas on the Rhine
20th December Christmas and New Year on the Rhine
27th December New Year on the Rhine
The FCDO have confirmed that leisure travel to Germany is not permitted from the UK with effect from 11.01pm on Sunday 19th December.
Sadly this means that our Christmas and New year River cruises can no longer go ahead.
I hold, and was thinking of buying more but the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did tell all Americans yesterday to avoid cruises regardless of their vaccination status. Long term, like most on here I don't see a problem and wont be selling, but if other health organisations followed their lead, it might cause a blip in sentiment.
CDC and Cruise Ship Travel
I thought this may interest some. It is a view on Saga from another site. Just a copy and paste from me:
First half accounts to 31st July 2021 showed a £1m profit - £69m of insurance profits subsumed by travel losses, finance charges and central overhead. Cruise reported loss for first half year was £35m.
Second half all other numbers remaining equal and cruise will move from £35m loss to a £40m profit - £20m per ship for the half year. The company has said ships need to operate at 80% capacity and £234 ticket sale per day for £40m PBT for each ship. We know from their numbers that capacity is 80% + and ticket sales £302. So, the company will make conservatively a £76m profit in the second half (this is merely replacing a £35m cruise loss in HI with a profit of £40m in H2). This is an annual £150m whilst providing £30m of support losses to keep Tour going. This an Price to earnings ratio of 2.5 !!!
With no ship repayment until 30th June 2022. Cash flow will be excellent
• Available cash at 31st July £175m
• Insurance as HI +£50m
• Tour injection as HI -£20m
• Cruise income £85m (very conservative and confirmed in Sept 21 – plenty of sales since)
• Cruise margin from ship presentation - £45m
• Finance charges - £15m
• Buffer and cap ex - £15m
• Available cash 31st Jan 2022 - £215m
Forward sales on cruise for 2022 are exceptional and my calculations suggest the £40m per annum per ship PBT could be circa £59m per ship in 2022.
- Capacity closer to 90% not 80% adds £10m per ship
- Average revenue per day £306 model says £245 and each £1 = 300k. But lots of inflation /covid costs so take half of the £61 or £30 to profit = £9m per ship
Assuming Tour still shut this suggests PBT could be £190m in 2022. Price earnings on 2
I have reviewed latest bookings at Xmas eve.
First three quarters Nine months to September 22 overall bookings 84% (split 94% single cabins 83% doubles). Quarter 2 to June is standout with 96% occupancy (98% single 92% double). Therefore, I am comfortable on exceeding cruise earnings.
Quarter 4 lags Oct – Dec and is currently 53% booked (60% single 46 double) – but this has not hit peak booking season.
Overall, for the whole year we are at 76% of all capacity booked at Xmas eve to give context
- 22nd Sept 21 RNS – 59% and £306 per passenger (now 76%)
- Pre pandemic 28th Jan 20 RNS forward booking 60.8% and £259 per capita. 30 days of peak booking to go and we are far in excess for this. 76% and £306
I have absolutely no doubt in mid-February the price of Saga will be significantly higher than now, and the market has missed the incremental contribution of Cruise which results from sailing very busy ships with customers paying a premium.
Thanks for this information CamRaid
I’ve been looking for a reopening (end of Covid restrictions) travel stock and I can’t fault the arguments for £SAGA. It’s clearly popular with PI’s on Stockopedia. This latest information has made up my mind. HNY.
There's certainly value in Saga, but I can't see the short term as being so clear cut as you suggest. The CDC warning that cruises should be avoided regardless of vaccination status may have a direct effect on occupancy over the next half year. But it's also a reflection of just how infectious Omicron is, and others may be forced to issue similar advice or regulation. This may all play out over the next few months and let things move back towards normal. But that had to a large extent been the assumption prior to Omicorn emerging, and while the majority of the world's population remain unvaccinated there remains a real risk of futher variants emerging.
I continue to hold Saga, we will almost certainly see a significant price recovery at some point, but I'd be wary of predicting a full restoration of expected cruise profits in the near future. Which is not to say it can't happen, but it may not.
The thing about Saga (LON:SAGA) is patience. (Not the card game the over 50's play)
There is an insurance business that generates £140m of profits each year - relatively stable, with a multi-year product that is actually quite a high %age of sales. They are much less affected by new renewal rules according to management. If anything it probably serves to retain customers rather than the other way around.
So even if they keep travel at breakeven whilst the pandemic takes its course this is a business now on a 3* multiple with plenty of headroom on the balance sheet.
If travel takes a turn for the worst then they have shown they are still capable of profitability so broadly the risks to the business appear minimal. The main area for any concern being the debt secured against the cruise ships, but in reality the business and the lenders are well synchronised with each other so I would suggest even a prolonged travel downturn is unlikely to unravel the balance sheet - it would make no sense to lender or borrower.
I seem to remember from a management presentation (but could be wrong) that the cruises were expected to be 70% capacity for a while because of the social distancing measures but that the business was still highly profitable at these levels. It won't be the £80m p/a for the 2 ships at capacity but I'd say likely to be £20-30m p/a.
The market is highly illiquid and highly uncertain at the moment. Retail investors are capitulating / withdrawing money as they see stocks drift and get frightened by government mantra on new variants etc. (a policy designed to invoke maximum vaccine update btw - it works as we've seen from the queues). So patience will be required until markets normalise.
Historically looking back, Saga plunged around 60% during the advent (haha not intended pun for this time of year) of covid March 2020, and then drifted even lower subsequently for another 5/6 months. Then with the advent (haha) of vacine recovered ti over 400p , and now with Omicron the sell off has been overdone (and yes it may fall further - you can never predict the where it will bottom) , I've doubled my holding to 40K shares. In for the long hall , as I expect/predict life will return to normal (as possible) within 24 months or so.
If your in for a quick buck you are likely to be burnt, long term a multi bag - I've put my money where my mouth is - let's see that the future holds.
Someone on another BB says Spirit of Adventure on its 30-day West Indies cruise is just 70% full, which makes the trip uneconomic. Presumably not a portent for any SP recovery anytime soon, with the latest bat flu scare likely making potential bookers even more wary. Does anyone here monitor booking availability, discounts etc? I imagine there's limited scope to trim costs to match low occupancy unless many of the customer-facing crew are effectively freelance.
Will be interesting to see if the 220-260p support band from Dec 2020 holds.
Most cruise ships are running at around this capacity due to social distancing required for COVID.
Probably running at less of a loss then sitting empty.
Royal Caribbean have claimed breakeven at between 35% and 50%, modern vessels at 35% older vessels at 50%, presumably due to fuel efficiency/capacity ?
Suspect Saga is towards the lower end, not sure it they've ever reported a breakeven figure to the market. At 70% I suspect they are in profit for that particular cruise.
Just found the quote....
What occupancy does Royal Caribbean Group need on its ships to be at a break even point for cashflow?
Somewhere between 35 and 50 percent, depending on the ship, according to Jason Liberty, executive vice president and CFO.
“The ships are accretive to us around that 35% to 50% mark,” he said, on the company’s second quarter earnings call.
“And obviously, the newer, larger ships are closer to 35%. And older, smaller ships are closer to that 50%.
Just a small point re customer service. I cancelled my SAGA Rhine cruise in Nov 2021, at the last minute (literally - about 1 hour before I was about to set off on Eurostar), for a variety of reasons. I rang up SAGA, and they said no problem, we have to charge a £100 cancellation fee, and I said I'd be happy to re-book. So that left about £2.2k of my cash, on my account at SAGA.
Anyway, times are hard and friends are few, so I rang SAGA yesterday, saying I needed the money back for Christmas. Sure no problem, said the polite young man. Would you like the money back on the same debit card you paid it to us? Yes please. Sure, that's done - it should be with you by the end of the week. It arrived today - next day.
How about that for customer service?!! Fantastic.
Regards, Paul.
Hi Paul, glad you had such a sympathetic and sensible long term business experience with £SAGA
More good news on their people friendly policies in various publications his morning. They are introducing a week's paid leave to employees when a grandchild is born. Very ESG
It is great to hear about the quality of service.
In terms of capacity and occupancy I have seen a lot of discussion elsewhere. When someone says cruises are running at 70% is that 70% of full capacity or 70% of the reduced capacity.
I have also seen it suggested that cruise ships need to be 35-50% full to break even. Modern ships like Saga's ships closer to 35%. This is good news and their efficiency was always part of the strategy to increase profits.
I guess the big question remains will cruises continue? Given we have removed all countries from the red list I think as a country we will support continued cruises. Destination countries may have other ideas. However, stay aboard cruises also seem popular.
Amazed SAGA has fallen back so far.
Surprised no one has come in with a bid of £4-5 quid. Seems crazy cheap at these levels unless I've lost the plot and am missing some huge negatives somewhere about this stock?!
Stocko says "Value Trap"
Roger De Haan bought into Saga at 4.50 per share so I expect lots of investors jumped in and chased the share price up,. Roger De Haan owns 26% of Saga and might not want to sell.
well that’s worth taking note on. Nearly £100k bought by a BOD.
Its better than that Jim, a few pennies of a million quid I make it
Yep missed a zero. £1m buy. I’ll be adding on this news and holding a few years. Even if it just gets back to 1500 level it’s still a 5 bagger from here.
As a holder, I'd love to see that but the no. of shares in issue and the short dated debt have both significantly increased since the share price was at that level.
This RNS from November 2020, the last time any equity was issued so far as I can tell shows the share count was 140,102,227. Not sure where/when the 101 million figure was applicable.
https://www.stockopedia.com/sh...
Gus.
Does anyone know why the current number of shares in issue is 140m? The last Accounts (per Stockopedia) has 101m as at 31 Jan 2021. I know they had a share issue in 2020, but can't recall anything this year. That's quite a dilution - 101m to 140m.
I think you might be looking at the average for the year - this is the number in the tables. If you look down below, to the company info, there is a line for shares in issue and this shows the exact latest number - 140m. This will have been the number after the share-split and equity issue last year, but the table shows the average across the year.
Saga going the extra miles, well upto 500 for round trips. Just in case investors have not seen this:
Seem to be thousands of mostly algorithm trades at the moment. The one thing that surprises me about SAGA is that Sir Roger is the only person with a notifiable interest in this company now and the few institutions that are invested are in for around1%. It doesn't over concern me because there are only 140 million share in issue so any move now by an institution is likely to cause a bit of jump up.
The announcement of the appointment of Tesco's ex insurance chief is hugely important and much needed after Euan's recent comments on the need for a complete overhaul.
I guess that may have got the market a bit jittery as its the insurance arm that we are heavily reliant on at the moment.
I think its been widely acknowledged that we are the most efficient country at testing for COVID. We are at the forefront of the development of medicines and vaccines too. I hope it is Kate Bingham they have brought back to organise booster jabs. Its what Johnson does best, delegate. Just need someone to sort out the fishing row Boris and probably the rest of Brexit.
The rising number of people testing positive is a real worry. The government will do what they need to do to secure votes and protect them from the opposition. Travel restrictions may be implemented.
However, the numbers need analysis.
For every 1m of population we have done over 4m of tests. That is more than 4 tests per person. This is twice as much as countries such as America and France who are first world economies. Morocco has banned us from travelling there yet have only done 400,000 tests for every 1m of their population. We have done 10 times more testing than Morocco.
In view of this of course we will detect more cases.
The average age of those testing positive with Covid is 22. The young, even when not vaccinated, do not suffer dreadful symptoms in the main.
Of the 1.4m active cases in the UK only 850 are considered serious. Most of these will be suffering another serious underlying condition. This condition is likely to kill them but they will be recorded as dying ‘with COVID’.
I fear the government will impose further restrictions. However, the long term investment case for Saga (LON:SAGA) remains.
While test rates vary considerably, it's also true that so do positivity rates of those tested. The UK tests far more than France, but a much higher proportion of those tested are also positive - suggesting that the apparent higher covid rates here are very real.
That's not true everywhere, Germany recently has high positivity rates, and it looks as though their covid infection rates are rising fast, and nearly as high as the UK ones. Spain in contrast which has kept to requiring masks in public has much lower infection rates.
It's misleading to say that most who have serious covid illness have a serious underlying condition. Many do not. And those that do, and who die, are in the great majority of cases unlikely to have died anytime soon. Many/most with serious underlying conditions live for decades.
In addition it's not just about death. Older, vaccinated people are now much less likely to die than they were, but infection rates are much higher amongst school aged children and their parents (and school staff), meaning many schools have to shut and there is ongoing and serious interuption of education.
Relatively simple measures, such as keeping masks in schools and other indoor spaces can have a large impact, and it's refusal to maintain measures such as that that not only cause disruption, but may well lead to a need for much more severe measures later in the winter.
Saga (LON:SAGA) has launched it's rebrand campaign today for anyone that wants to take a look at the first ad. They're running the media spend till end Feb next year: https://travelweekly.co.uk/new...
Sutherland also admitted how the brand had fallen behind and that it had suffered from "different ownership structures " : https://www.morningstar.co.uk/...
Hopefully the campaign and cognisant leadership will help to improve perceptions of SAGA moving forward.
The above is largely positive IMO (I hold) but am aware there are still risk factors worth considering. Unfortunately we never know how Covid will unfold over winter and how it will impact Government decisions re travel restrictions.
In balance however, I feel the cash flow from the insurance division is well equipped to support any further travel disruption and believe that the company as a whole will benefit from the increased visibility over the next 4 months.
thanks for sharing, i actually think its a really good brand campaign, eager to see where they go with it as there is lots of opportunity
Just seen opening of the new Saga TV campaign "Experience is everything". It is on air and viewable anytime on YouTube. Personally, I think it is strategically very smart and not bad executionally (ex FMCG Mkt Dir).
A better brand image is the critical magic factor X the business needs to be re-invigorated and be "cool" again after the alleged years of mis-management under PE.
If successful, I think that only will the Saga travel/cruise side do well but they can easily move the brand into age appropriate adjacent categories via licencing - clothing, appliances, even vehicles (Saga motorability scooters anyone?).
I hold and have been topping up as price has fallen back - there may be further restrictions on cruises over winter but should be flat out by spring.
Cases rising sharply, Morocco bans UK flights, getting ugly now. We're too relaxed in the UK. Why aren't masks required here whereas in most of Europe they are?
What seems like common sense to me, most folk just dont seem to agree. Nobody wears masks anymore except the elderly. All types of venues are full to the brim even on weekdays and no social distancing measures are followed anymore.
I get the feeling that the majority of people just dont give a crap anymore and just want to get back to normality. The government wont impose any further restrictions until hospitals start seeing high levels of admissions. There's just too much pushback from the general public and business leaders.
I'm also seeing a huge rise in anti-vax / anti-lockdown compaigners on my social media feeds. Dont know if they had these views from the outset or not but they're absolutely much more vocal about it now.
Its good to buy when things are quiet , so thats what Ive done today as Ive bought into SAGA. Perhaps it goes lower but to try to be so precise is not to understand what investing is all about. Leave some for the other person as my Grandad would say.
Here's a few observations, in no particlaur order, as I spent some time going through their website as if I were a potential client. Just to say I won't be a client as while Im at the right age this just isn't for me. I hate cruises for enviromental and other reasons but have given this the ok as the ships are all new and eco friendly compared to the competition and saga ones perviously.
Ok the first thing that strikes you is the website is fairly plain. Obviously thats intentional as they are targeting a higher age bracket and so its likley they want less clutter than the youngsters. Boxed ticked.
I have tried quite hard to figure out an annual "potential" turnover of the 2 new cruise ships . As while they have the river cruises and the insurance etc the excess profit I reckon will be delivered, or not , from there 2 main cruise ships. The brochure price isn't what people really pay. The striking figure for me is just HOW MUCH one pays and its all PER PERSON. Obviously the cabins are all different price tiers and for various trips so its pretty well impossible for me to figure out an annual turnover of each ship. But all I can say is you get an impression that at anywhere near the max capaicity of 1000 these ships carry it will be rolling in one heck of alot of money. Yes they have the all inclusive price to contend with, the fuel , the high staff ratio and life at sea with its added costs plus the cost of repaying the ship purchase price but I can only say it feels to me these ships could really make money given high demand.
I think that high demand is going to come too. Its easy to look at the negatives. But compared to a land based resturant, bar or hotel they actually know exactly how many people will be having lunch and dinner for say the entire trip. Their staff are based on capaicity too which they know in advance. Even the age group its ideal for an all inclusive deal , much better than a family holiday say in Spain.
Don't underestimate just how high the prices go . Can the over 50s pay this having been told they can't go on holiday for 2 years. You bet they can. Price for the next couple of years is not a problem I reckon.
Cruise ships at the beginning of the pandemic were viewed as death traps. Loads of people all cramp together. Now its the other way around. Loads of people , all double vaccinated , away from soicety at sea and safe. Its the go to holiday at a certain age!
Thanks to Paul for going through the balance sheet and making it clear to us what the debt situation is. As he says the insurance division is keeping it washing its face and its now just about waiting for the holidays to pick up.
In the UK we're 85% vaccinated , other countries will follow that. Boosters now will help further. If your old and wanting a holiday a saga cruise could just be the thing and with their high and flexible prices per person this could be a money roller. I wouldnt be surprised if they record a record profit in a couple of years.
Note there is less competition in the travel sector. For example Thomas Cook went out of business in 2019 and am sure there has been others during Covid.
Fill your boots, once you've DYOR! :)
Read a balanced review of Saga by Edmund Jackson on the Interactive Investor site that supported my scepticism of the Saga Insurance business. My car was insured by Saga last year(from August) but they were more expensive by far than other offers on comparison sites even though I fit their target market. The three year fixed was pushed hard in their mailings, a product I am not interested in. The business has strong competitors like Admiral and has challenges building scale.
Borrowing from Edmund:
* Total retail broking earned fell 10% to £37.9 million, significantly offset by an 11% rise in underwriting revenue to £31.1 million. Total insurance therefore eased 1.4% to £69.0 million.
* The three-year fixed has competition and in any case, a Saga target customer is nimble enough with a computer mouse and a comparison site to search for the best deals annually. It kind of blunts the story about a captive customer base and ability to sell insurance directly.
* Release of reserves on the underwriting side - £18m in the first half for Saga- has saved the insurance business across the industry. This will not last as Saga confirmed in the Q&A to the Investor Meet Company presentation.
So, questions remain as to the retention of insurance undewriting at Saga .Dont get me wrong, I still hold the shares on the basis that cash flow from insurance gives the company time to build up cash from Cruise but the enthusiasm for more than £5 or 6 may be curbed.
Today's Times :-
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/art...
Analysts’ views from FT: The 4 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Saga PLC have a median target of 514.50, with a high estimate of 690.00 and a low estimate of 400.00. The median estimate represents a 46.50% increase from the last price of 351.20.
I am not invested yet, for two reasons, covid and the balance sheet.
I am not trying to troll anyone here. This share is going to be volatile for the simple fact that the EV to Mkt cap is high... it has net debt of £740m vs a current mkt cap of £476m. The company backs out the cruise ship debt since it isn't included in covenants. However since the repayment plan on the cruise debt has been deferred to 31.3.22 .... the company cannot pay dividends.
I already have a significant investment in BT, which also has a stretched balance sheet and pays no dividend. I also take the view that on the other side it will be a cheap share but for now it will be volatile.
I am not worried about the liquidity in Saga. The going concern statement in the interims and last report and accounts are worth a read though. At present the reasonable worst case includes a two month suspension of cruising over the winter and delay to travel to March 22 for a deterioration in Covid.
I presume we do get on top of Covid eventually but can't rule out a worse outcome which could cause further delays. I think this is the main reason for the current share price and its volatility.
At present the first repayments on ships are planned for June 22 2022 and September 22 2022, £15m and £16m. These should be manageable. The rate on the loans are 4.3% and 3.3% which are a good indication that the lenders aren't too worried about their collateral. £635m assets Vs £515m debt gives headroom too. The impairment test in 2021 may be tight but again in itself, probably ok.
As everyone agrees, once travel recovers and the ships are running at near capacity the additional EBITDA leaves the ship repayment schedule manageable. However £515m of debt Vs £80m EBITDA = 6.4x. Quite high by any standard. Whilst it isn't incorrect to exclude the ship debt since it is ring fenced from group lending covenants, there remains equity gearing.
So net net, until we have confidence that virus variants will not disrupt operations the shares will likely be volatile. You can adjust your position size to cope with this.
Anyone know why SAGA is so insanely volatile? Seems to swing up and down 4% on a daily basis at the moment.
On Saga (LON:SAGA) (I hold), anyone have experience of being a customer?
I like the financial potential of the company and it is a decent part of my portfolio. Recently my car insurance was up for renewal, so I thought it would be good to move to Saga (yes, I'm old enough), but couldn't get an answer to my phone call within a few minutes on a couple of occasions. My concern is if this is how they treat their new paying customers, what does a claim look like?
So I rang Admiral, got straight through to a person and sorted it all out at a 25% saving to LV=. I know this an anecdote of one (well actually two calls), so interested in other experience.
Somewhat naughty cut and paste. This is from Numis the house brokers. A small downgrade and "uncertain" outlook though it would be weird to just dismiss covid completely so I'm not sure why its a big deal.
Solid insurance, encouraging travel bookings – A small pre-tax operating loss of -£3m is a beat versus consensus of -£9m, driven by motor underwriting. Results for all other parts of the business are broadly in line with forecasts, which we consider to be a good outcome given the challenging insurance market in the period. Operating cash flow of £42m is ahead of expectations, resulting in net debt of £227m at Jul-21 (ex-ships) being £39m better than consensus of £266m. Consequently ND/EBITDA of 2.4x is also better than consensus of 3.0x and is a reduction from 2.7x at Jan-21. Insurance underwriting benefitted from a more pronounced reduction in claims costs than modelled, resulting in a current year combined ratio of 88%. Reserve releases of £18m were also £2m ahead of consensus. The launch of new pricing models has driven underwriting footprint expansion, resulting in policy growth for the first time in 9 years in Q2. Boking margins for motor and home insurance have remained stable despite price softening in H1, demonstrating continued resilience of Saga’s revitalised insurance strategy. Customer retention remains high at 81% and overall motor/home customer numbers increased slightly (+0.5% yoy). There is no change to guidance that the FCA pricing rules will likely cause some short-term financial impact (already estimated in our forecasts). Cruise bookings data is encouraging, with Saga describing demand as very strong for next year. Load factors for this year have been suppressed by government capacity restrictions. Booked load factors are 70% for this year and 59% for next year, which is said to be ahead of pre-pandemic levels. Perhaps more significantly, per diem revenues are materially ahead of forecasts at £302 per passenger day for this year and £306m for next year, versus the previous budget/guidance of around £285. In the short-term, at least all of the per diem outperformance will be consumed by additional Covid-related costs (eg single-occupancy transfers and testing costs), but we think the higher achieved rate bodes well for medium/long-term cruise EBITDA outperformance versus original guidance of £40m/ship. Tours has had a slow restart due to ongoing travel restrictions uncertainty (£18m bookings for the current year) but encouragingly next year bookings of £109m is 18% ahead of pre-pandemic levels. However, Saga sounds a note of caution that there is still scope for Covid-related volatility. On first read we think consensus PBT for the current year might come down a bit (slower tours restart offsetting underwriting beat). Future forecasts look well supported, albeit there may be the need for added prudence on travel PBT if Covid disruptions persist. Overall, we think today’s results demonstrate Saga’s business is on a solid footing with a positive outlook, which supports are BUY thesis (Jan-24 P/E 6.0x). (Analysts call 9.30am)
Interims out today, look pretty much as expected? Not the best SP reaction so far.
I thought there would have been more discussion on this. The outlook is perhaps not as positive as I had hoped. Realistic I guess.
I've tracked down the Spirit of Discovery. It's docked in the Three Cities area of Malta, which is across the Grand Harbour from Valletta. As you can see from the photo I took yesterday below, the SAGA ship is considerably smaller than full-sized cruise ships. As you can see in the foreground, the larger ships dock in the centre of Valletta.
This is an interesting website, and shows that Spirit of Discovery left Malta yesterday afternoon. What a pity I missed that, as my new airbnb apartment has a great view of the harbour.
Still, it's great to know SAGA's 2 owned cruise ships are earning their keep again, albeit at reduced capacity due to covid restrictions. At this stage, with travel only tentatively waking up, I'd be perfectly happy for SAGA's travel division to just be operating at cashflow breakeven. Anything better than that is a bonus for now.
Other travel operators have lost a lot of summer business now the schools have gone back. But of course serving us oldies, Saga usually does well on travel throughout autumn/winter.
Maybe the £1.2bn Rights Issue at Easyjet (LON:EZJ) might have spooked investors about the difficulties travel companies still face? Saga is in the enviable position of being a hybrid company, part travel, but the main business is insurance, which should be doing fine.
In terms of liquidity, Saga is swimming in it, after the recent bond issue, which repaid riskier bank borrowings. So no issues there. The only potential problem which I can see, which could trigger an equity fundraising, would be if the ship loans were called in. But why on earth would that happen? The ship lender has been extremely accommodating so far, and is probably delighted that the ships are sailing again.
We should do very well with this share, longer term, but it's certainly a rollercoaster ride. No idea why this share is so ridiculously volatile? Maybe day traders like playing around with it, who knows?
Regards, Paul.
For anyone interested, this map shows where I took the photo from (Upper Barrakka Gardens) to where the Spirit of Discovery was berthed in Malta on 9 Sept 2021.
Sorry, forgot to include this link, which tracks exactly where specific ships are.
Thanks for the link, and the photo, Paul. I see the Spirit of Discovery is headed back to Malta from Italy and due in tomorrow morning (5am) if you are still there.
Anyway, I'm very envious of your trip down to Malta, which is somewhere I visit 2/3 times per year to visit colleagues in our Malta office (across in Sliema, the other side of Valletta from where you are staying). It is such a beautiful island and full of lovely people, I've missed just wandering down the tight streets and alleys and soaking in the history of the place, with the sea almost always in sight. Thankfully I'll be down there again next month or early-November to fix my Malta-craving!! Enjoy the rest of your trip.
Sorry, I misread that! The SoD is on it's way to Croatia - nevermind.
I'm not sure that the Lloyd's rates hardening applies to UK personal lines such as Motor and Home. Both of those haven't seen the same increases as some of the Lloyd's lines - particularly Cyber, US Property, D&O. Cyber particularly has seen some big increases across the Lloyd's and London market as insurers grapple with exposure, aggregation and risk - both systemic and entity specific. Nonetheless the personal lines sector looks relatively stable and I don't anticipate problems in this part of Saga's business. Much more stable than insuring what the average Lloyd's insurer insures - e.g. US Hurricane, California Wildfire, the big freeze etc and all that brings with it. Covid and Natural Cats act together to have significant inflationary impact when they happen together!
The announcement today from Lloyds indicates a hardening of rates and improved premium/loss ratios. https://uk.investing.com/news/...
In addition, there is a Swiss Re story about non-life rates hardening. https://uk.investing.com/news/...
Both are positive for Saga (LON:SAGA) in my opinion.
Cheers
Francis
SAGA's ship Spirit of Discovery is currently between its last stop in Gibraltar and Malta (Valletta) - it's due in 05:00 tomorrow, 9 Sept 2021. As it happens, I'm on holiday in Valletta, so I'll see if I can spot it, and take some pictures for you, to post here!
I dusted down my copy of The Gibraltar Chronicle and found this interesting article (free registration required. What?! You're not already a subscriber?!!)
It says that SAGA customers are only allowed to disembark at ports of call in "bubble" excursions - i.e. no wandering around exploring on their own. Seems a sensible compromise for the time being.
Henry Catania, Calypso Tours Director, told the Chronicle there were some 600 UK nationals on board the vessel, of whom 400 decided to disembark.
I think the capacity is about 1,000 passengers, so this suggests 60% occupancy. Also interesting that a third of passengers opted to just stay on the ship, instead of going on an excursion.
It's interesting to see the cruise sector coming alive again, in stages. So far it's encouraging I think - requiring everyone to be double vaxxed, and various other restrictions, seems to be working - i.e. no mass outbreaks, no panic, and demand seems good.
It will be interesting to hear SAGA's next update. For me this is a 2-3 year recovery stock, so am not expecting fireworks overnight. It's a bizarrely volatile share though, no idea why.
Regards, Paul (I hold)
Hope you’re continuing to enjoy your time in Malta. Don’t know how you manage to absorb so much so quickly and then write in such detail even while on holiday!
Looking forward to seeing any photos you can take of Spirit of Discovery, though surely you won’t get any photos inside what looks to be a luxurious ship?
Yes. Maximum capacity is 1000.
It’s surprising how such a large number who cruise like the ships and ship life so much that they choose not to get off the ship in ports even in normal times. No way could we go to such interesting places and then not get off! Also we want to be independent in ports and free to travel on public transport and not to pay the often extortionate prices all cruise Companies charge for excursions. So no more cruises for us and the many like us until return to normal.
But the fact that cruise Companies can still attract plenty of customers even with current restrictions shows the potential for SAGA and their 2 new state of the art ships if/when things eventually return to normal.
Thanks for all your excellent Saga (and many other) updates. Like you I’ve held SAGA from the extreme oversold lows and see it as a long term lock away share.
There's been a death from covid on a US cruise ship, and an outbreak amongst staff. The covid problems on this, and other cruise ships, seem to be contained, and handled quite well. It seems to be a moderate to low risk for vaccinated people, and something that people going on cruise ships seem to accept.
Well worth a read:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/0...
EDIT: I think there are both positives and negatives in that article, which will help people reinforce their existing views, whatever they are! To me though, it tells me that the cruise sector seems to be managing covid quite well. We're not seeing mass outbreaks of people getting sick - the article says that most cases in the crew were asymptomatic. Extensive testing seems to nip things in the bud, rather than seeing a repeat of that awful incident of a mass outbreak (pre-vaccines of course) in c.March 2020. I think it's encouraging. Many people want to get out there, and see cruising as safe, if everyone is double-vacced. I certainly do, and am looking forward to my SAGA Rhine cruise in Nov 2021.
Hi Paul
I hope your Saga river cruise is on their new ship Spirit of the Rhine and not on one of their not so good rented ships. Though the previous Saga Ocean Cruise ships were old, standards overall were high, and service superb.
I haven’t been on a river cruise but Which Saga review is negative on their previous ships. So as with their ocean cruises it’s a real bonus that they’ve invested in a quality ship giving them a chance of picking up new customers who previously river cruised with Viking or Riviera who both get superb reviews.
From Berkshire Hatahaway results yesterday:
Geico, the insurer that is among Berkshire’s crown jewels, was among the few weak points. Pre-tax profits fell 70 per cent from the year prior as more Americans returned to the open road, resulting in a rise in insurance claims.
Saga and other motor insurers in the UK have had lower claims during the pandemic which has put a lid on premiums. They could suffer higher claims like GEICO as Brits start driving.
What are your thoughts on Euan Sutherland Paul? I find Saga interesting but is he the real deal? He was at the Co Op and that didn't seem to go well and then he was at Superdry which seemed to go even worse. Is he the man to run this show? He talks the talk but has he ever managed to walk the walk? Not like it is an industry where he knows the ropes imo. You can look at all the financials but sometimes there's a dial flashing in the cockpit that the crew are ignoring and just when you aren't expecting it you're in an episode of Air Crash Investigates - it is always so bleedin' obvious then imo
Have traded Saga a few times but Sutherland prevents me becoming a comitted holder.
Cockney Rebel
Hi Richard,
Re Euan Sutherland - I don't have a strong opinion of him either way. I'm probably placing more emphasis on Sir Roger de Haan's return to the company (founder's son, and former long-serving CEO) and substantial injection of new equity - he even overpaid for a large chunk of his investment, putting in some at the placing price, and the rest at a much higher valuation. If Sir Roger is happy with the CEO, then so am I.
The strategy, of putting the customer first again, and investment into digital, etc, is all music to my ears. So I'm putting more emphasis on that, than the personality or track record of the CEO.
It's a long-term investment for me, so I'm looking several years ahead, at what I think is the potential for a substantial re-rating. With destructive private equity owners, and previous poor management now gone, I think the current strategy is spot-on, and could cause a serious re-rating of this group, but that takes time.
Regards, Paul.
My understanding of Euan Sutherlands time at the Co Op is that the board, which was made up of Co Op members and the body that is incharge, wouldn't let him do anything. This is just my recollection and l may be remembering incorrectly.
Met some folks on a Fred O cruise... They were all happy to be cruising again and felt very safe... Covid testing done before they initially embarqued and quick tests done before they were allowed to go ashore for any local excursions... So every precaution taken.... No doubt all cruise lines are working up to these high standards.... Sounds great.... I hold saga and carnival
My question is what will happen if (or more likely, when) a bat flu case is confirmed on a Saga cruise? A few small outbreaks have occurred in recent weeks on other cruises. These appear to have been handled discretely, with the offending cruisers confined to quarters or despatched as quickly as possible at the next port. Does this mean everyone else can carry on as normal, or does the fun stop for all? Would more stringent action be taken if a passenger-facing crew member goes down (I assume crew still live in fairly confined conditions)? Presumably Saga tells people before booking what the typical response would be. The SP reactions to news of these outbreaks suggests it's not all plain sailing yet.....
https://fortune.com/2021/07/30...
https://www.reuters.com/world/...
https://www.washingtonpost.com...
I spotted Spirit of Discovery when I was in Falmouth last week and hung around chatting with whoever I could! Crew and passengers.
Without exception, they were all really happy and excited to be back out there.
A few of the passengers were booking a second cruise later this year as they were enjoying it so much. A common comment was having so much air and space having been cooped up for so long. Another comment was that they were determined to spend the money they’d not spent recently and I heard the phrase “you can’t take it with you” a few times.
The crew said it was very busy and they seemed to be really enjoying themselves. For many of them, they love the job and had really missed seeing people who they have got to know well over the years.
Paul
I just read the Saga thread (I am also an investor in Saga). Setting up these threads is a great idea and hope that people will respect it and not allow them to degenerate.
Best of Luck
Direct Line Insurance (LON:DLG) reporting very strong interim results today as a result of less motor claims due to lower miles driven as we all spend more time at home with less commuting. Remember that Saga (LON:SAGA) is primarily an insurance business (I don’t know why people think it is just a travel business) and will also benefit from this effect (as other insurers like Admiral (LON:ADM) have benefited). With cruise ships now back in the water (I enjoyed a wonderful Disney cruise this past weekend in the Irish Sea), I see Saga (LON:SAGA) making good progress in coming periods in paying down its net debt levels and as that happens the equity value (share price) of the company is highly likely to rise.
Surprised to read in the latest SAGA Magazine that Chief Executive Euan Sutherland has just been on his first ever cruise! So the CE of a cruise Company had never been on a cruise or a cruise ship, himself!
Anyway he thoroughly enjoyed his time on Saga’s Spirit of Discovery, and he said as he sat there on his balcony he was finally discovering for himself the enormous appeal of holidays at sea, and what an incredibly relaxing way to travel it is. He noted that his many happy customers were delighted to be cruising with Saga again, and was amazed at how many crew members and passengers knew each other from previous cruises and were like old friends.
btw...he was on Spirit of Discovery. Their other new cruise ship, Spirit of Adventure inaugural cruise was on July 26th.
Not a cruise company! Saga (LON:SAGA) is an insurance company with side businesses in Travel and Cruise.
Maybe so but when cruising contributes 80m to the EBITDA then we have a game changer in terms of price.
Thanks Paul, for setting this separate thread up. I often have to search all discussion threads, (when the price moves) and then look elsewhere on the internet. And then find myself on the dreaded ADVFN chat. Which is so difficult to find useful information, as it is usually buried under petty arguments!
Do you think it is worth pulling the information from your last Small Cap report on SAGA. and adding it to the header text?
Hi marcus,
Do you think it is worth pulling the information from your last Small Cap report on SAGA. and adding it to the header text?
I'm trying to make the headers zero maintenance, because I could end up having to create these for hundreds of companies! Although I encourage readers to create similar threads for companies you find interesting, to save me the work. Readers could then put anything you like in the headers.
When companies come up on the SCVR, I'll definitely post a link here to the individual company thread.
Regards, Paul.
That makes total sense. Low maintenance is key :). Thanks again for all your hard work. I enjoy reading your SCVR every morning with a my morning cup of coffee (preferably in the sunshine).
Nice to see some positive headlines. Does anybody think the DM SAGA article might have been paid for? Either way, good idea...
One of my favourite holdings currently and i expect very stable gradual growth once we are fully back travelling and travel lists are out of the headlines on a daily basis.
International restrictions on cruising from England were lifted today (2 August 2021) - information here on Saga's website.
Good recent article here, with pictures, showing SAGA's flagship cruise ship. Looks very pleasant inside. Also covers covid-related measures being taken.