Good morning!

Bonmarche Holdings (LON:BON)

Share price: 126p (down 1.2% today)
No. shares: 50.0m
Market cap: £63.0m

(At the time of writing, I hold a long position in this share)

Results, 52 wks ended 26 Mar 2016 - here are the highlights:


Given how bombed out the share price has been of late, these figures don't look too bad at all. Note that LFL sales growth of only 0.7% isn't enough to maintain profits - because I suppose their costs are increasing faster than that.

The PER is only 6.9 times, based on the underlying EPS of 18.3p. This seems to have come in above forecast EPS of 16.9p.

Dividend yield is 5.7%

Outlook - the company today says:

The market niche in which we compete continues to represent an opportunity to gain market share from less focused competitors. I believe in our strategy to deliver successfully our five pillars of growth (described further in the CEO report), and in the ability of our colleagues to execute it. The beginning of FY17 has continued to be tough due to poor weather, however our full year expectation is unchanged provided trading conditions normalise.

The way I read that, it's almost a profit warning, but not quite. So there has to be a heightened risk that there could be another profit warning, given that the new year has started badly. For this reason, I would take say 10% off current year forecasts, to be on the safe side.

Broker consensus is currently for 20.0p EPS this new year. So if we reduce that to 18p to be prudent, then the current year PER is 7.

I've just found some more outlook comments, which say:

Looking ahead, there will continue to be external factors that affect consumer confidence and the cost of doing business - the EU referendum, rising costs driven by the Living Wage, forex rates, and business rates are all unhelpful macro headwinds. Consumers are also spending a greater proportion of their disposable income on technology and leisure - however we are focused on continuing to provide customers with a compelling reason to shop at Bonmarché. We firmly believe that as a niche retailer, focused on catering for the mature female demographic, Bonmarché is well positioned to continue to grow.

The brand development work we are conducting through the early summer will serve to focus…

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