Small Cap Value Report (11 Aug 2014) - DGB, CFHL, WSG, PSL, SIV
Good morning from the island of Paxos! My internet connection here is at best very weak, so am hoping this report will find its way to you at all, let alone promptly! I've hired a small motor boat, so once this report is filed, I'll be wandering down to Loggos, to spend the rest of the day whizzing around, bay hopping, slapping on the factor 50 and trying not to get eaten alive by mosquitos.
Digital Barriers (LON:DGB)
This is the first small cap I've observed to blame the Ebola outbreak for a profit warning. It says that contract negotiations are being delayed due to restrictions on staff travel. Some positive noises are made about other potential contracts. An excerpt from this morning's announcement says;
We have invested significant time and effort in developing a strategic sales pipeline in the fast growing economies of West Africa and our hope and expectation is that although we will see inevitable delays, we can work with our local partners to ensure these delays are kept to a minimum. In the interim we are already seeing very significant sales traction with customers across other target regions and expect positive contract news throughout the year.
The company certainly has a mountain to climb just to reach breakeven, after several years of heavy losses. So the £60m market cap rests entirely on hope for considerably improved results this year & next. Too speculative for me at anything near the current price I suspect these shares might lurch a long way lower as one disappointment follows another.
CityFibre Infrastructure Holdings (LON:CFHL)
This is an interesting company, which is building fibre optic networks in British cities. An announcement this morning is for a new network to be built in Kirklees.
These shares are on my watch list, but at the moment financial details are too skant to consider it anything other than blue sky. I need a much more concrete idea about what shareholder return there is likely to be, before considering buying any shares here.
Westminster (LON:WSG)
News is published today of a contract win with an African Govt to operate a ferry service in Africa, with potential revenue of $300m over 25 years. Sounds interesting, although this company has always seemed a bit peculiar to me. Might be worth another look possibly? The company says;
We expect this service to share many of the strong financial dynamics which are already being delivered by our existing managed services business.
Photonstar Led (LON:PSL)
Interim results to 30 Jun 2014 are published this morning, and as expected are not very good. It's an innovative lighting company. The weather is blamed for poor H1 results - it would be interesting to collate comments about the weather from all companies in the market - if you did that, I suspect that the conclusion would point towards a new Ice Age starting - i.e. weather is so often blamed for poor trading.
You very rarely hear companies blame good weather for good results. Instead good results are down to brilliant management, and only bad results are due to the weather!
As always, ther only weather that matters is whether you have the right products at the right price.
This micro cap recently raised £2.2m in a Placing, and talks about new lighting product launches for H2, so let's see what they deliver for the rest of this year. Hopefully the weather we are currently having is conducive to good sales of lighting, From what I can gather, it seems to go dark at approximately the same time & for the same duration each day as it did last year.
ST Ives (LON:SIV)
There's an in line with expectations trading update from this marketing & printing company today;
The board is pleased to report that the results for the financial year ended 1 August 2014 are expected to be in line with current market expectations.
This company looks potentially interesting - it has a StockRank of 99, and looks reasonably priced on a forward PER of 10.8. Also I like the progressive dividend, currently yielding about 3.6%, with a good track record of consistently paying & increasing the dividends in recent year.
Right, got to dash, the family are chomping at the bit here, wanting to get out on the water, so skipper Scott signing off!
Regards, Paul.
(of the companies mentioned today, Paul has a long position in PSL, and no short positions)
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18 comments
Paul,
Thanks for the comprehensive response; it is the very fact that the Google views brought back the essence of the Greece I fell for all those years ago and has slowly been lost; that looked so attractive.
Continue to have a safe holiday.
Hi Funderstruck,
Indeed. I just wrote a long, rambling reply to your comment, including detail about the swordfish I had for lunch today (freshly caught, as we saw one of the family carrying in another swordfish he had just caught!). Then the flipping t'internet here bombed out on me, and it was lost into the ether.
Overall thought, I think Paxos is a wonderful place to visit, where modern tourism must have been kept out by strict planning rules. It's unspoiled fishing villages, and nice villas here. No tourist blocks or high rise at all. Bloody mosquitoes are driving me mad, but I am Mr Citronella now - head to toe coated in the stuff, which is bringing some respite from being seen as lunch by the local insect population every time I move!
It's mainly Greek (mainland) and English tourists here in Paxos from what I can see. But the English here are largely the only type of English people I'm happy to be on holiday around - i.e. middle class, and non-shouty types, mostly couples without kids, and just chilled out with nothing to prove.
Cheers, Paul.
Hi Paul
Any view on Vislink weakness atm?
Hi boothybym,
Any view on Vislink weakness atm?
No, I don't normally comment on share price movements, unless there is some news that has triggered it.
In the case of Vislink (LON:VLK), I am just assuming that it's the general (short-term) market malaise which is affecting many, or possibly most small caps at the moment. So as far as I'm concerned, the price weakness is just background noise. All that will matter is how the company performs on profit & outlook over the next couple of years, which is my intended holding period. We'll have to see what happens.
As a general point, in my view if a share price is constantly going down, but so are most other similar companies (which is what's happening now), then it's not usually a cause for concern. It's only when one particular share keeps going down, in an otherwise good market that you have to wonder why.
This is a bear market for small caps - so it's time to be greedy & hoover up the bargains, in my view. People do daft things when sentiment is bad - selling good companies at prices that are too low. So I'm more in buy mode than sell mode at the moment.
Regards, Paul.
WSG. No thanks.
50.50 JV so revenues are $150mn over 25 years assuming projected growth. Knock off 10% for safety and its $135mn. = $5.4mn a year at sector average margins of 15% = $0.8mn per year = £0.5mn per year
Wont even get them out of a loss making position. Complete hype
Paul;
Nothing so mundane as a query re company reports; We are planning a late vacation at end September and considering Greece. We have over 40yrs been to most Islands of Greece but not Paxos . The Google views are lovely , just what we would look for.
Would you please give me a quick tip as to the best method of travelling there.
Have a great Vacation & Thanks.
Hi Funderstruck,
In answer to your query, I highly recommend Paxos - it's pretty much unspoiled in my opinion.
I flew from Gatwick on Easyjet, to Corfu. Then you get a cab (10 min ride) from Corfu Airport to "New Port". Then catch a hydrofoil (takes about an hour) to Paxos. In my view it's well worth the extra little bit of travel from Corfu, to go from horrible mass tourism, to unspoiled old fashioned Greece.
The best way to see the island is to hire a boat, which we did today. Cost about £100 to hire a small speedboat, which took 6 people, and we hopped from bay to bay. I almost drowned trying to swim to shore, which was a bit silly, so am being a bit more careful now & using a buoyancy aid when swimming. Makes me feel a bit of a wuss, but I'd rather be an alive wuss, than a dead hero!
Downside here is that the beaches are stony, but personally I'm used to that from Brighton, and sand is over-rated anyway. The food is fabulous, and reasonably priced. I'll definitely be coming back to Paxos next year. The locals are easy on the eye too!!
Cheers, Paul.
P.S. The other negative is mosquitos - we've all been bitten a lot, and it's obviously unpleasant. So good anti-mozzie sprays, etc, are vital. Mine were thrown away at Gatwick unfortunately, as I only took hand luggage & wasn't allowed to take liquids onto the plane.
Make sure you nip over to Anti-Paxos while you are there!
Paul, holidays shouldn't be about work. do yourself a favour and enjoy a work free holiday.I'm astounded that you continue to write this on holiday. great write up as usual, but enjoy a well earned rest.
Hi pyemckay,
Thanks, but honestly I enjoy writing these reports, and I'm perfectly happy writing a somewhat abbreviated report each morning whilst on holiday!
Regards, Paul.
Anyone seen a RNS or any other reason for Ilika (LON:IKA) to be up 10% and rising!
Enjoy your holiday!!
" I like this time of year because so many market participants are on a beach somewhere (I can't think of anything more boring!) "
Thank you Paul - I enjoy reading the reports so keep them coming.
I'm very bullish for 2015 (years ending in 5 have been weirdly amazing for the stock market over the last 100 years)..
Westminster Group's main managed services contract is in Sierra Leone, so they are impacted by Ebola. What is with the world at the moment? West Africa, Russia Ukraine, Iraq all have LSE quoted companies focused on them. Even giants like GSK coming to grief in China and BP in Russia.
I think you mean shopping.. Or is hopping a sport on Paxos! Enjoy your holiday.
....or maybe Paul just means that delightful activity of hopping from bay to bay seeking the one with steep cliffs that no-one can walk down to...perfect for swimming and sunbathing, and wine sipping
Oh stupid me! This was before coffee and on the train!