Good morning!
We're seeing a relief rally today, as the latest poll last night showed a small lead for the remain side. The last few days have certainly been a wake-up call to those of us who believe that a leave vote is the best thing for the country in the long run (and I fully appreciate that some readers disagree, it's a matter of opinion). There's no doubt that a leave vote would be chaotic for the markets, and would probably put a big hole in our portfolios for a while anyway.
We had another terrific, and courteous discussion about Brexit in the comments section after yesterday's report. Thanks to everyone who is contributing to the debate, which has been the best I've seen anywhere. Maddox in particular, who works in the City, left us in no doubt that a lack of EU passporting would lead to many job losses in the City, as banks, etc, relocate some operations to within the EU. I've heard the same thing from a friend who is Co. Sec. for an overseas bank which has London as its European HQ.
Some other fascinating snippets I picked up - apparently 80% of Dutch people want the UK to leave the EU. The article suggested this is because they are also disillusioned with the EU, and hence want the UK to open the door to them also leaving. Mind you, I did wonder whether they just think we're a pain in the neck, and want us out for that reason? Germans and Poles have apparently been polled, and strongly want the UK to remain in the EU - although it's pretty obvious why - for self-interest.
Probably the most astonishing intervention, was George Osborne basically blackmailing the electorate to vote remain - saying yesterday that he would impose an emergency budget, increasing income tax by 2%, and other punitive measures, if we vote out. He seriously thinks that he will still be Chancellor after an out vote? It's a diabolical tactic too, which to me indicates appalling judgement, plus malice. So he needs to be kicked out, regardless of the outcome of the vote.
In terms of the markets, it's obviously all about Brexit right now. When the polls & betting odds move towards remain, then shares go up. When they move towards leave, then shares go down. Goodness knows what would happen on an actual Brexit vote? Probably a…
