Small Cap Value Report (18 Mar 2016) - RBN, HCL, IDEA, LAKE | Paul Scott

18th Mar '16 by Paul Scott

40 comments 23074 reads

Please note that we had some technical problems, and this post disappeared on upgrading of servers. However, the techie guys have very kindly rummaged around for it on the old server, and reinstated it. We might have lost some posts in the comments area, due to this technical glitch, so my apologies if your comments accidentally vanished.

Good morning.

My apologies this report is a day late. I didn't have a very good week last week, so am spending the weekend catching up with the backlog.

Given that my output last week was below par, I've created some interesting additional free content for you today (Saturday), with renowned investor Richard Crow (aka. CockneyRebel). So here is our latest discussion about shares, and the markets. Over 30 stocks are discussed.

Stop Press! David Stredder has just texted me to say that the Directors of Lakehouse (LON:LAKE) are facing the music after recent profit warning at Mello Beckenham on Monday coming (21 Mar 2016). Should be interesting, I'll try to get along to that if I can (I hold a long position in LAKE).

Robinson (LON:RBN)

Share price: 168.5p (down 6.4%)
No. shares: 16.4m
Market cap: £27.6m

Results y/e 31 Dec 2015 - revenue was £29.1m - exactly in line with the last trading update which I reviewed here on 25 Jan 2016.

These accounts need to be read in the context of a major acquisition, of a Polish manufacturer of plastic packaging (called Madrox) which completed in mid-2014. Therefore the calendar 2015 figures include a full year of its (profitable) trading, whereas the 2014 comparatives only include half a year of Madrox's results. The purchase price for Madrox was £13.2m, so almost half the current group market cap.

Therefore group revenue and profit should be substantially up on 2014. So why was turnover only up 3.8%?

Revenues were £29.1m for the year, which represents a 3.8% increase on last year. The full year effect of the…

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The Phoenix

18th Mar '16

Any chance you can have a gander at Softcat when you do it Paul recent ipo looks decent company first half profits come in slightly below forecast.

Cheers

Rusty2

Paul, if you have a chance I would be interested in your view of French Connection (LON:FCCN) results out on 15th March, share price has been up and down quite a bit since, down 12% today.

daveinthelakes

Simon Thompson of IC put it up as a buy earlier in the week with a target price of "60p and beyond"

Hmmm Simon Thompson, infamous tipster of GBO and SGI et al. I also see IC are saying its a sell.

Tips make the prices go up sometimes, cause a spike, Simon has quite a following so could be reason for rise, although there are take over rumours and stake building. Not sure why the big fall today, I picked a few up under 42p with a stop loss, we will see what happens.

FREng

Concurrent Technologies (LON:CNC) posted decent results today. Increased divi. No debt. SR 94 (may be higher when Ed's computers have crunched the results).

Yes I saw that, has been on my watchlist for some time. Last half year figures they were a bit downbeat about the 2nd half "second half performance is not expected to match the first half" - See more at: http://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-2-sep-2015-sal-hfd-jsg-sfr-cnc-105736/#sthash.GLYTYXky.dpuf

Maybe they are conservative management?

Yes looks good company and its fairly local to me. One of Lord Lee's holdings.

Wol

Paul
I really appreciate your daily blog. Your Small Cap Value Report is on my checklist of essential checks before making any trade. If you need to take a few days off to recover, recuperate or just have some fun please don't feel guilty. We get so much from your reports. Maybe a few days off will encourage the rest of us to do more of our own research.
Julian

vik2001

19th Mar '16

Paul be good to get your views on ideagen and good energy who both released trafing statements yesterday.
Thanks

Novice Investor

I told some friends about this blog, and after people started getting emails about his daily blog, it became higher profile. I regret telling them now of course. They are appalled at the inconsistency and unprofessionalism, and some have stopped visiting the site as a result.

Clearly he is a paid by employers to write this blog. It's up to them if they want to tolerate excuse after excuse for the inconsistency. Just as we can vote with our feet.

jonthetourist

There are many "professional" and "consistent" sources of investing information. There are very few honest, unbiased and insightful sources. Feel free to abandon this one and good luck with your investing.

Jon

cig

This blog is free to read... your thorough inspection of the gift horse's mouth is very much appreciated.

muckshifter

Novice Investor,
You clearly found Paul’s analysis valuable, or you wouldn’t have “told some friends” about it.
Perhaps you and your friends were expecting a “tip sheet”, which is not what Paul provides here. The value that many, including me, get from these reports is an ex company accountant’s appraisal of balance sheets, pension deficits, “adjusted accounts” etc, done in about a fiftieth of the time it would take me personally, with a clear explanation and lots of little tips about what to watch for in accounts – in other words, lessons on how to “do your own research” which are invaluable to someone who is not an accountant.

You are quite right in saying that it is up to Stockopedia to grumble, or keep quiet, about Paul’s occasional absence, but I think they know the value readers attribute to his posts and you’ll find they tolerate the consequences of illness and / or over indulgence now and again.

If you and your friends want to vote with your feet, please watch out that you don’t get trampled by the hords coming in the opposite direction
Regards.

pka

Novice Investor, nobody is forcing you or your friends to read Paul's blog. Personally I think it is excellent. It doesn't worry me that it doesn't necessarily appear every day. When it does appear, he seems to me to give honest and unbiased opinions, based on his experience as an ex company accountant. He has spotted and warned readers about 'red flags' in the accounts of several companies well ahead of other commentators, and some of those companies have eventually done very badly for their shareholders for various reasons, including fraud. Therefore he has probably saved some of his readers a great deal of money. The comments from Stockopedia readers on Paul's blog are also usually very insightful, even if they don't always agree with Paul's opinions.

swanhunter

20th Mar '16

If this was a paid service then maybe there might be grounds for a grumble. As its free I am very happy to get such excellent input and insight and if we miss the odd report, so be it.

alexdonnelly

Novice

If you don't like Pauls report go elsewhere don't read it.

The guy puts hours of hard work into this report and the interviews and he does it for free.

Kelvin Prescott

A deeply unfair and offensive post. For free, Paul provides higher quality analysis and commentary than every paid for service I've seen in 20 years of investing. Shame on you.

In common with many who subscribe, I have the highest regard for SCVR, which is obviously more a labour of love more than a job.

TMFMayn

Hold on -- I saw Paul's completed SCVR here earlier this morning. I listened to the linked podcast and came back, and now the SCVR write-up and various comments from Sat pm have disappeared.

Brackendale

Paul takes his analysis very seriously but doesn't take himself too seriously - which one of the reasons he is so highly regarded and makes him pretty unique among the usual egomaniacs giving investment opinion.
And I don't want his view on every company. The low grade commentators are the ones that try and sound intelligent about every company. As active investors surely we are all trying to be selective? We want quality not quantity - which Paul delivers. Whether he posts everyday is completely irrelevant.
Paul - please continue as you are.

GrindertraderUK

Where I find Paul's SCVR are most valuable isn't so much his comments of interest on results day; but when he has covered the same stock a number of times over the years. I like to see the build up from when Paul has spotted an easy warning flag, to see his concerns that mature over a number of reporting periods.

Pauls discussion history is invaluable, his opinion changes over time if facts change on the ground. I find he is unbiased, selfless and it is once again a shame that someone feels the need to be critical when above all else we get his SCVR for free.

I am too busy doing my own research on results day that I often find myself turning to Paul's SCVP a few days later, so if he takes a duvet day off who cares! His well being is more important than issuing timely SCVR almost every trading day of the year!

I would find if I waited for Paul's comments on results day first.. then my own opinion may be biased towards his comments. That's something neither I (and i assume Paul) would want.

It like his opinions but i do not need to rely on them. They can help me at times, however if i did rely on them, then I would have to ask serious questions about my own ability to do research.

best wishes Ian

janebolacha

I posted, at about 05.30 UK time, a quite separate comment on a different thread, relating to Laura Ashley Holdings (LON:ALY), which has also disappeared, for no obvious reason.

Very strange.

Small Cap Value Report (18 Mar 2016) - RBN, HCL, IDEA, LAKE

Robinson (LON:RBN)

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Paul Scott

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