Small Cap Value Report (24 Jan 2017) - SPRP, FEVR, EMR, PZC | Graham Neary

24th Jan '17 by Graham Neary

23 comments 19319 reads

Hi there,

Today brings with it too many interesting updates for me to cover them all, but I'm planning to start with:

Sprue Aegis (LON:SPRP)
Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR)
Empresaria (LON:EMR)
PZ Cussons (LON:PZC)

Sprue Aegis (LON:SPRP)

Share price: 172.5p (-2%)
No. shares: 45.9m
Market cap: £79m

Trading Update (for the year ended 31 December 2016)

(this section written by Graham Neary)

As most readers will be aware, this company had a shocker in 2016, driven by a battery problem, weaker demand, and supply chain issues.

This is a mixed update which describes the company working through various challenges, as it tries to get back to normal performance levels:

Sales are expected to be approximately £57.1m (2015: £88.3m) and the operating profit* (post a £0.2m restructuring charge) is expected to be approximately £2.1m (2015: £12.8m). The Group delivered an improved performance in the second half with an estimated H2 2016 operating profit* of £3.0m (H1 2016: operating loss of £0.9m before share based payments charge).

That sounds like a reasonable H2 result, in the circumstances, but note that it is before share based payments of £0.6m (which increased slightly, compared to 2015).

If paying out share awards was irrelevant to the operating performance of a company, it wouldn't pay them, I think - so share awards should always be included in operating numbers like this. There is nothing special about these annual payments which means that external shareholders can simply ignore them.

So I would argue that a more meaningful operating profit figure would be £2.4 million in H2, up from a £1.4 million loss in H1.

My opinion

Looking forward, I'd like to be bullish on the company's recovery prospects. What I really need to understand is how overstocking in France led to such a large sales collapse there - was management at fault? Were lessons learned? Perhaps the annual report will help to explain.

Cash is now £14 million, leaving the enterprise value (market cap minus cash) at £65 million. Further business recovery is due, and will be needed to justify this valuation.

Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR)

Share price: 1190p (+5%)
No.…

Unlock with Email

Unlock with Google

Already have an account?
Login here

Steve Hill

24th Jan '17

I would also really appreciate your comments on XLM, looks like the RNS tried to hide the fact that revenues fell in the second half of the year after growing by 39% in the first half, which seems very strange.

Glaws2

Graham

SPRP - the overstocking in France was by the retail distributors - the collapse in sales is due to the distributors clearing their own inventory and not placing orders to SPRP.

Regarding the share based payments I was led to believe that (in this case) these were notional charges required by accounting regulations and that company was not planning on making any such payments this year. I would be upset if they were rewarding performance in 2016.

I was more concerned over the comments on exchange rates - pretty much all their costs are incurred in USD and have thus gone up but only a percentage of sales are in Euros. Suggests margins are going to thin along with profits.

Graham Neary

Thanks Glaws. That sounds very dysfunctional, do you think SPRP could have done anything to prepare for or deal with the actions of their distributors?

If it's true that the share based payments aren't happening, I'll be glad to amend the article. I've just checked the interim results, and they had a share-based payment charge of £0.3 million in that period, too. It may relate to payments for prior service, but it still needs to be deducted from operating profit either in the current period or in the previous period to which it relates, in my view.

Thanks

Graham

It is indeed odd that the French distributors overstocked so much - but obviously SPRP were happy to supply them.

bestace

On Sprue Aegis (LON:SPRP), yes the cash balances are healthy but I note they have declined every six months since June 2015, including in this latest 6 month period where they declined by a further £0.4m.

Part of the reason for the decline in cash was explained at the last interims as being due to a purchase of £7m "buffer stock", which they claimed they were confident of being able to sell over a 12-month period. Given that stock balances are still much higher than they were before this purchase and now represent nearly a quarter of last year's revenue, some further clarity on the stock balances and on their recoverability would have been welcomed.

Inepttrader

Hey tabhair,

I saw the announcement (£LAKE) and there was one thing I didn't get: a fairly heavy loss, in debt, but still declaring a dividend? Isn't that a terrible time for any sort of div? Are there good reasons for the management to do that?

Disclosure: I owned shares until this morning's RNS.

Tortoise investor

There's a lot to digest in the Lakehouse (LON:LAKE) announcement and I plan to read over it more thoroughly in the coming days. I note they say Property Services, which is around a third of revenues (I haven't seen whether it says how much profit it makes), will comprise a far smaller part of the Group in the future. So I'd be interested to know whether this is a potential bottom or whether profits could fall further - I'd be interested in others' thoughts. I agree with Inepttrader that paying a dividend is probably not a smart move even if it would be quite nice to receive. I don't currently own Lakehouse (LON:LAKE) but it's on my watchlist. I'd be v interested in others' thoughts including Graham if he has time though I appreciate there's a lot to report on at the moment!

tabhair

Lakehouse (LON:LAKE) were originally floated as an income stock. I believe Slater invesments have it in their income fund and given the pressure they put on changing management, they are naturally quite keen to retain the dividend.

The debt itself is actually not so bad. From the last trading update, it's actually reduced from £30m to £20m, so I don't think there is any risk of a covenant breach. When you strip out the accounting losses from intangible write-off's, there is actually decent cash flow in the business, especially when you consider that 2016 was a nightmare year. I could actually see this one doing very well in 2017 (assuming some other part of the business doesn't blow up).

Thanks for the info tabhair.

If Lakehouse (LON:LAKE) are under heavy institutional pressure to give dividends even when it might hurt the long-term business (or at least not help it), then I don't mind sitting this one out. But I do hope they do well in 2017, and as you say there is at least potential for a quite big turn around.

Aislabie

I too am trying to tease out what XL Media XLM is saying. I am not sure where your numbers are derived from. It appears to me that with $103mm of Revenue for the year, and $51mm in the first half,the second half has grown - very slightly.
Could you be mixing $ and £ ?
That said, for a professed growth company, these numbers do not show any in the second half and the company does not appear to address this at all. In fact this makes a third straight quarter of revenue at just over the $50mm level. It is making me uneasy

Sorry - third straight half year - not quarter

Housemartin2

Re XLM. I read it as no growth in Q2 from gambling but some from other sectors (which are v small ) Pretty significant but no explanation so not a good communication.

I leave aside using EBITDA and excluding share based payments which is not new and for which XLM is not alone.

Re XLM, if you compare H2 2015 with H2 2016 revenues have fallen by approx 2%.
No wonder their FO was a seller late last year.
What can possibly have happened for revenue growth to fall from 39% to -2% in 6 months ?

MichaelFBS

Not that odd. I live and run a small business here in France and the whole need for smoke detectors was incredible hyped/well publicized and I suspect that stockists just got the numbers wrong because a large number of households and landlords simply did not bother installing them and simply ignored the regs.

PS I have fitted them but not Sprue Aegis (LON:SPRP). £AMZN offers a huge choice!!

Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR) I like them very much and hold. I am intrigued why Evil Knievil has taken agin them so much.

Master Investor 23/12/15
"I wish I knew how to monitor sales at Fevertree (FEVR), now 595p. This is surely staggeringly overrated. But it’s a bold bunny that shorts it here. After all, lunacy has taken the price up here. Who’s to say the lunatics will not continue hard at it?"
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/evil-diaries/the-evil-diaries-you-could-knock-me-over-with-a-feather/

Master Investor 08/06/16
"I shorted Fevertree (FEVR) at 730p. This is surely ridiculously overvalued. The problem is that it might become even more ridiculously overvalued. I had to pay 2% p.a. to borrow stock."
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/evil-diaries/evil-diaries-2-4/

Master Investor 24/01/17
"Fevertree (LON:FVR) continues to defy gravity and looks like a short nap for 2017 at 1,120p."
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/evil-diaries/magic-can-hang-around-for-longer-than-is-convenient/

That said he wrote today "This enabled me to sell again." So I dont quite understand his perspective.

I happy to hear the bear case but I just can't see it.

Anybody have any thoughts?

Regards
Michael

Laughton

purpleski - apparently he also shorted Boohoo.Com (LON:BOO) some time ago and is still short. I guess he can't be right all of the time??

arfournier

@Laughton shorting a growth stock solely due to valuations metrics is a good way to get smoked.

monzo

Hi Purpleski. Well done again here. I remember having a similar conversation with you when they were pushing £10 a share and I said I'd rather be short at that price / valuation. It it a bonkers valuation but everyones in love with growth stocks at the moment so while the markets remain irrational I'll sit on the sidelines. I can see them getting taken out by a bigger player so a short is dangerous but on a general market sell off I'd expect the growth stocks to take a battering.

As a side note, I was in a bar the other day and ordered a G&T and they asked me which tonic I'd like. I opted for the schweppes out of spite :-) and said I don't like fevertree. I didn't tell the barman it was because I didn't buy the shares at £5 though.

Andrew niven

25th Jan '17

We tried to become distributors for fever tree in barbados and could not get anywhere with them even though my hotel clients are all screaming out to stock their product
Very weird as nobody else stocking,

Simon Cannell

16th Feb '17

On the latest REC series there's an interview with the CEO of Empresaria https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/rec-scale-up-r...if anyones interested

Small Cap Value Report (24 Jan 2017) - SPRP, FEVR, EMR, PZC

Sprue Aegis (LON:SPRP)

Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR)

Unlock the rest of this article with a 14 day trial

About the Author

Graham Neary

23 comments

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...