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Archived articleThis is an archived article from 2016 - please note that any content within the article may be out of date.

Small Cap Value Report (25 Jul 2016) - no report today, sorry

Hi,

Sorry there's no report today, am taking a day off.

Apologies for the inconvenience.

Regards, Paul.

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15 comments


Avatar for Paul Scott

Hi,

Thanks for holding the fort whilst I had a day off!

Publishing a "Sorry, no report today" post seems to have worked very well, as it gave regulars a chance to post your own comments on shares relevant for the day. So I'll do that in future too, when I have occasional days off.

Regards, Paul.

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Avatar for back2value

It's strangely fun for readers to be able to comment here when the Landlord's having a well-earned day off!

XPP - very much steady as she goes, and nothing to worry about from what I can see. A share which is happily unconnected to anything Brexit-related. I don't expect this share to motor upwards from here, but if they can keep growing the dividends reliably, I expect to be holding for the long term, too.

Separately, after careful research, including watching the video of their impressive Mello presentation, I recently bought a few Watkin Jones (WJG). If they can stick to their plans of scaling up their student accommodation development model, I think the prospects are quite exciting there.

Taking this opportunity to wish Paul and all readers the very best,

B2V

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Avatar for Ramridge

The 'no report today' also gives us an opportunity to comment on the BHS report published today.
Having just finished reading the report, I have to say that I always thought Maxwell's looting of MGN was the lowest point in corporate UK. Well we have a new rogue in this gallery, Phillip Green. The systematic plunder of BHS since he took ownership makes Cap'n Bob look like a rank amateur.

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Avatar for Roy Edwards

Good man, well done. You work very hard so it just has to be Pimms O Clock. It would be rude not to.

0
Avatar for bench2

Well deserved , time for some vitamin D in the East Sussex sunshine

0
Avatar for andrewdb

Paul, entering a 'this day intentionally blank' post is v.v. useful, it means
- I know I am not missing something
- You know it has not gone missing
- Others can post the small cap results that they are interested in (like they do normally)


19
Avatar for rmillaree

XPP interims out today, As is the case normally for them, very steady but slow progress being made. P/e as ever aint particularly cheap say 100p EPS and 1640p shareprice. I quite like the cut of their gib so will continue to hold.



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Avatar for MichaelFBS

Personally I like XP Power (LON:XPP) a lot. I have held since Feb 2012 buying more May 2012, Jan 2013 and Oct 2013. On the initial purchase I am up 52% (10.9% compound give or take plus a divi of I think around 4%). It is my 5th/6th largest holding and I am very content to hold.

Last,y as I have said before my Wife worked with the CEO when she was at Dell (EMEA) and rates him.

Have a good day of Paul. I am writing this from the beach!

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Avatar for LongbeardRanger

Hi purpleski,

I too hold, and like, XP Power (LON:XPP) - it seems to be a no nonsense company with a sensible strategy that it is executing well.

This morning's update was quite satisfactory and I am content to continue holding. It's not "cheap" but in these low interest rate days, hardly expensive either.

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Avatar for MichaelFBS

It seems reasonably priced for a good quality share and I would be more than happy if it hits 2,500 in 2020

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Avatar for PJ0077

No doubt you would purpleski (!) but mathematically a £25 share price in 2020 appears unlikely,  in the absence of a stock re-rating. The reason is simple - profit growth is a function of either:

  • higher ROCE
  • higher capital employed

XPP already earns a magnificent 24.2% ROCE (20% post-tax). Higher ROCE would hence appear unlikely.

So it's key source of profit growth will be via higher capital employed, the natural source of which is retained earnings. Note however that the company has a 60% payout ratio. Hence it's likely organic profit growth if it can sustain it's ROCE will be:

  • profit growth = 20% * (1 - 60%) = 8% per annum

Compounded over four years, this equates to a 2020 share price of £22, assuming no re-rating of the share price in this period. 

Your best option in the above scenario will be to reinvest your dividends.


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Avatar for MichaelFBS

Thanks for your comment PJ0077. Enlightening. My comment was slightly tongue in cheek though I can see no reason to sell this stock as it ticks all the boxes for me. It will be interesting to see where it is in 2020 and what dividends I have received.

As an aside I do wish I had reinvested my divis but TD Direct has a very limited offering on reinvesting divis (FTSE 100 from memory) and I have toyed with the idea of switching broker to HL or Barclays. Inertia is the only reason I haven't.

Second aside is my divis have been £1,671 (gross) since initial purchase. So my total return has been 48.6% which I am more than happy with.

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Avatar for truegent

enjoy the day off Paul im taking one too !

the only stock reporting today in my portfolio is Michelmersh Brick Holdings (LON:MBH), i just sold half and letting the other half run. the accounts are actually great here, they've paid of all debt so just dividends to come out of FCF, yield is pretty poor though at under 2% i think but this should surely rise soon now theyve got no debt. only reason i sold half is there are question marks over the growth, they say it themselves today that their market is challenging.

the other stock i hold in this area is Breedon Aggregates (LON:BREE) who reported last week and again top-line growth wasnt great at 2% but this did translate to a nice hike in EPS due to improved margins. no div here at all though ! but again great set of accounts with negligible debt and real profits.

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Avatar for Chrisfarrell21

Hi Paul,

Considering you work when you're on holiday, you deserve a proper day off. I hope you're enjoying yourself.

Ta

Chris

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Avatar for Laughton

Ha - funny how the company info that appears on this page should be BOO HOO.

Probably sums up how most of your regular followers are feeling at news there is no report today.

Nice day to be beside the seaside though.

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