Good morning, it's Paul here, with Friday's SCVR.

I'll start early, with some catch up sections from yesterday.

Estimated timings today - the lockdown seems to have turned me nocturnal, so I did 4 hours writing overnight, and needed to sleep more recently. I'm writing more now (from 11:57) and am likely to keep going until about 3pm.

Your Covid-19 comments - I read with considerable interest all the different views yesterday (and previously) about the virus, and how it might affect our investments. Can I just make one suggestion though? It seems that most people who are giving their views, and making predictions, phrase it as if their views are incontrovertible fact, and that anyone who disagrees is a fool! E.g. most comments seem to be phrased along the lines of "This or that will happen...", when actually all the comment really is, is educated guesswork. Nobody has any idea how this will pan out. All we can actually say is, "My view is that this or that might, or could possibly happen". Or, "I think the most likely outcome could be ....", etc.

This is a point made in a terrific book I'm reading at the moment, which I've mentioned here before, highly recommended: Super forecasting. This book points out that the media loves commentators (on economics, shares, world affairs, politics, etc) that are strident, emphatically give one point of view, don't change their minds even when they're wrong, and are very frequently wrong yet never called to account for their poor forecasting. It calls commentators like this "hedgehogs". This type of commentator is often strident & refuses to even contemplate alternative views. I think it's fair to say that I often fall into this trap myself. Hence I'm making a greater effort to mention different views on stocks when I remember. I'm also making an effort to change my "this will happen...." into "I think the most likely outcome is .... but there's a fair chance this other outcome could happen". Or this is the upside, and this is the downside case.

My personal view is that I think many of yesterday's reader comments seem way too pessimistic. I'm working on the basis that bars and restaurants could be open again by July. My suggestion would be to initially limit customers to healthy under-50s with no pre-existing health conditions (where the statistics show the risk…

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