Small Cap Value Report (Mon 16 Nov 2020) - Paul's recent buys, NCYT
This part written by Paul
Good evening (I'm writing this first section on Sunday evening). I promised to follow Jack's comments last week, on what he's actually been buying recently, so somewhat belatedly (with my apologies), here it is.
EDIT: I've put this up on Sunday early evening (in between binge-watching The Crown) to give subscribers some time to digest things at leisure, rather than trying to combine it with the usual 7am deluge of RNSs on Monday morning.
Also, I have to take one of my dogs to a cancer specialist tomorrow, to see if we can save him, so won't have that much time for writing. Also whether we can justify spending money on an elderly dog, or if it would be better spent on saving the lives of pensioners in Zimbabwe via my favourite charity, ZANE. Lots to think about. It should be a simple, logical choice, but it's not when emotions are involved.
We caused chaos in the De Beauvoir Arms N1 just before lockdown 2, when my dog Paddy kept vigorously trying to climb onto the table. I kept shouting at him to get down and this poor human on the nearby table kept jumping out of his skin! Turns out he was called Paddy too, so we had a good laugh and I bought him a drink by way of an apology for fraying his nerves. He thought it was hilarious in the end, so no harm done. Here's my Paddy
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This section written by Paul
I promised last week to update you on my recent “buying frenzy”, so here goes, and sorry for the delay. In recent months I’ve been building up positions in a number of shares that looked too depressed, and should benefit from a likely gradual recovery from covid in 2021 (better treatments, testing, and vaccines). However, I suffered heavy losses on these shares (the worst being Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) ) as they fell, and fell, and fell. So my portfolio, which had been looking quite healthy earlier this year, was starting to look sickly again recently.
Pleasingly, I’ve recouped all of my losses from Sept & Oct, in one week, last week, and am now back to a more comfortable level that I was at in August, in terms of portfolio performance..
Two pieces of significant news recently led me to start buying heavily. Firstly, the news from Rishi Sunak that he was extending the furlough scheme from end Nov 2020, to Mar 2021, is highly significant for many struggling companies in the worst affected sectors of retailing, hospitality/leisure, and travel. This means that some, many even, could survive through to the other side of covid.
The second piece of news happened a couple of days later - the positive vaccine results from Pfizer. This put an astonishing rocket under the market on 9 Nov. Was this just a spike up? I feel it’s more important than that, and it gave me the confidence to start going through my watchlist and working out which shares to buy. I think we are likely to get more good news generally on treatments & vaccines, so even if shares slip backwards in between news, there should be regular fillips from here onwards, possibly? That has to be set against worsening daily figures on infections & deaths - nearly all of the deaths having underlying health conditions, the data clearly shows.
Moving on to individual shares, NB, as we always emphasise, we do not ever give recommendations here. Why would we? You blame me if they go down, and take the credit yourself if they go up! I know how this works, I’ve been doing it for over 20 years!
These are ideas for subscribers to research and debate. Negative views are just as important as positive ones, I’m not looking for confirmation comments, but actually like it when people throw up bearish comments. Please remember that I get some stock ideas right, and some wrong. In particular, my more speculative ideas tend to go wrong a lot of the time!
I’ve just updated my spreadsheet, and thought it might be helpful to share my top 10 holdings with you, to put things in perspective, as this shows the level of conviction I have, for general interest. Then you can laugh at me in 6-12 months time, and beyond.
You might notice that I’ve moved up the market cap size level a bit, with 4 out of my top 5 being fairly liquid. I’m trying to avoid taking very large positions in micro caps, as then I’m stuck in them, which isn’t great when things go wrong.
As you can see below, I deliberately run a highly concentrated portfolio. That’s just my choice, as I want to back my highest conviction positions heavily. It works great when my picks do well, and can be a nightmare when big ones go wrong! So please bear in mind I see myself as a higher risk investor.
Boohoo (LON:BOO) (by far my largest holding, at 26%) - we’ve debated this one ad nauseam, so to recap my view: an astonishing growth company, now with 9 brands, and there’s really no limit to how many more it can bolt on. Selling globally, growth is actually accelerating. How many companies produce growth like this?
I think the forecasts are possibly too low (the lighter blue blobs), and the PER multiple is also right at the bottom of the 5 year range - currently rated at 27 times forecast EPS for 2021/22, on forecasts that are usually thrashed.
We all know about the supply chain issues, which have had no impact on trading. I think the company’s comprehensive response deserves credit, and it’s really just background noise, now that the issues are being addressed. The press vendetta, and repetition of the same material, must surely hit the law of diminishing returns soon? It's frightened off the auditors but the auditing profession has plenty of reputational issues of its own to deal with.
BOO’s supply chain is arguably far more ethical than its competitors, many of whom are buying from sweatshops in Bangladesh, where workers are paid 50p/hour and live in slums (see recent BBC TV report on this subject). So a massive amount of hypocrisy exists in the sector.
My theory is that many fund managers are subject to quite strict ESG rules, so they have possibly become forced sellers of BOO, due to the adverse publicity. Once those sellers are gone, it opens up the path for a share price recovery, in my view. Beautiful conditions to make money. Thank you for the opportunity, ESG sellers - why did you buy a fast fashion stock in the first place?
As we’ve seen , BOO shareholders need strong nerves, to be able to cope with the share price volatility. But volatility is very different from risk, so I don’t let the volatility bother me too much, indeed I've been buying heavily on every dip.
Intercede (LON:IGP) (11% of my portfolio) - this is a long-term holding, which I bought in mid-2018, because it looked under-valued, and has a very sticky client list of huge organisations, with mainly recurring revenues. It’s now profitable, and has traded fine throughout covid. I’m really backing the CEO here, who I think has a very clear plan, and is executing well. So far so good. There’s a IMC presentation coming up on 26 Nov. It wouldn’t surprise me if someone bids for this cyber-security company.
Saga (LON:SAGA) (10% of my portfolio) - I’ve researched this a lot (see the archive) and reckon it’s valued completely incorrectly at the moment. If you analyse the debt, it’s really not a problem. A £250m loan note is cheap, and doesn’t mature for several years. The company reckons it can pay if off from future cashflows. The cruise ship loans of c.£550m are fine, as the lender has waived covenants until June 2021, and once the ships can start work, then they are forecast to generate £80m EBITDA, more than enough to cover the c.£25m p.a. Loan interest costs, plus capital repayments above that, over c.12 years. Customers are itching to get onto the 2 brand new cruise ships, which have fresh air ventilation, all balcony rooms, and well-planned social distancing procedures. Bookings are high, and SAGA will be fully segregating client funds shortly. So zero risk, a great selling point. Plus its insurance division is a lovely cash cow, worth a lot more than the group market cap, in my view.
The former CEO (founder’s son) has injected £100m of his own cash in recent £150m fundraising, most of it put in at 405p per share! The balance was put in at 180p per share, which was also the open offer price. A takeover bid of 495p was recently rejected. Yet we can buy now at c.190p - it’s crazily cheap IMO.
Once the travel division is working again, then I reckon earnings could bounce back to c.100p per share in 2022 maybe. Put that on a PER of say 12, and you have 1200p per share price target. Hence I reckon this could be a multibagger, if things go well. Not without risk of course, but I don't see the risk as anywhere near as high as the market seems to think. I’m probably more excited about the scale of the upside here than for anything else.
Volex (LON:VLX) (7.6% of my portfolio) - cracking interim results are just out, and broker forecasts seem too low. Hence I reckon the actual PER could be in the low teens, or less even, once the latest acquisition is added into the numbers. Three more acquisitions are in the pipeline, and can be funded from cash, and a new enlarged bank facility. The balance sheet is great, and it’s paying divis still. I agree with SCSW that a sensible price target is 400p, 60% upside from here. Cannacord has just initiated coverage, with a 382p target. I’m not bothered by the recent departure of the CFO, as management indicated this was a planned transition, as he told the Board he wanted to retire 2 years ago. The CEO has plenty of skin in the game - his personal holding is worth £94m!
Redde Northgate (LON:REDD) (5.7%) - many thanks to subscribers who flagged this one up to me. It just seems the wrong price! The white van hire business is in a great place, with the rise of internet & delivery services needed. The accident management business is struggling, but should recover. The balance sheet is fine, with debt under control, and heavily asset backed. We had recent confirmation of broker forecasts, giving a PER of just 7, and a dividend yield of 7%. To me, that just seems the wrong price. Hence 300-400p seems a sensible target price. It’s currently 220p.
Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) (5.4%) - obviously this one has been a disaster, but it’s turning the corner now. It bottomed out at c.8p, and has now doubled to c.17p. The CVA was approved last week, which jettisons the problem sites. I got forced out of some of my spread bet positions in it, when it dropped below the 20p placing price, but managed to grab some of them back at c.11p when the furlough extension was announced.
Once it can trade normally again, I reckon this business could produce maybe £15m p.a. EBITDA/cashflow, which would allow it to reduce debt fairly quickly, which I reckon should peak at c, £22m - not disastrous at all. Pent-up demand to party is likely to be huge in 2021. Not without risk, but nowhere near as risky as the market seems to think, in my view.
Quiz (LON:QUIZ) (4.0%) - this is another special situation, which did a pre-pack admin in June. All the shops are now on turnover rents. Experienced management are rebuilding the business, and still have cash in the bank. Miniscule market cap, so there could be nice upside here, taking a 1-2 year view.
Bigdish (LON:DISH) (3.0%) - not one of my better ideas so far! Hugely speculative, but operating in a very interesting space. It has changed strategy several times. This one is a complete punt, but with money I can afford to lose, if it goes wrong.
Shoe Zone (LON:SHOE) (2.7%) - I’ve been building up a long position here recently. It’s another recovery story. Historically the company has been highly cash generative, and management have big shareholdings. It has incurred heavy losses in 2020, but looks financed adequately to survive, and come out of the other side. Tiny market cap now, which I think looks too low, recovery not yet priced in.
French Connection (LON:FCCN) (2.4%) - another special situation, which is funded to survive covid, with a recent £15m asset backed facility provided by turnaround specialist Hilco. Valuable brand licensing revenue, should give a profitable exit at some point. Loss-making shops being gradually closed. Miniscule market cap seems far too low to me.
Other things I’ve been buying, and why
On a smaller scale, I also like these;
Portmeirion (LON:PMP) - good strategy under new management. Focusing on growth, in particular online, which appeals to me. I’ve done very well on a few other businesses that successfully transitioned online, e.g. Best Of The Best (LON:BOTB) (only a very small position for me now). So as soon as I hear of turnaround plans based on growing online, then I sit up and take note.
Walker Greenbank (LON:WGB) - I’ve topped up after the recent news of a collaboration with Next (LON:NXT) . Looks cheap I think.
Marks And Spencer (LON:MKS) - I like the major efforts underway to turn it around. This seems much more decisive than previous half-hearted turnarounds. See the webinar on its website. Recent interims were OK in the circumstances, and it has tons of liquidity.
Watkin Jones (LON:WJG) - I decided to take the plunge here, even though the valuation is still too high on a balance sheet multiple basis. But, this niche property developer has a great track record, and a good pipeline. It’s not a big position, but I wanted to dip my toe in the water.
Loopup (LON:LOOP) - the price got whacked recently, when the Pfizer vaccine news came through, unfairly I thought. Most recent trading news was fantastic, and I think some of that could stick, even if people do gradually go back to working in offices.
Finally, a few tiddlers, which are very illiquid, so probably best ignored;
United Carpets (LON:UCG) - tiny, but cheap
Pci- Pal (LON:PCIP) - looks awful on historic numbers, but could have breakeven in sight, due to strong growth
Gattaca (LON:GATC) - quite surprising recent results, and balance sheet strength.
I’ve written about all the above shares in recent SCVRs, so please just search the archive if you want more detail. It would take me too long to put in all the links.
I hope you find some of the above interesting, to have a delve into yourselves.
A word of warning though, a lot have risen quite a bit recently, so the danger is that, if we chase them up in price further, we could end up buying disadvantageously, into a short term spike. Hence why I generally try to wait for a red day, and then nibble away at the ones that fall.
In particular, Saga had a couple of big spikes in price last week, but fell back each time, so it looks like there are willing sellers around.
Things I’ve sold
I churn my spread bet accounts quite a lot, as volatile prices & gearing can force me into trimming positions when I’m on margin call. Not ideal, but as mentioned before, I’m really not very good at managing my own portfolio, because my personality is too excitable to make rational decisions consistently.
These are the things that I had to sell on down days;
Hollywood Bowl (LON:BOWL) - really annoying, as I had to sell near the recent lows, to free up margin to hold on to my higher conviction positions. It shot up last week, so much that I feel it’s not worth chasing it higher by buying back in.
Newriver Reit (LON:NRR) - I still like this one, but feel that landlords are suffering carnage from all the CVAs, that I don’t really want any exposure to retail or hospitality landlords. I know all the arguments about the upside case, but would rather steer clear for now.
Purplebricks (LON:PURP) - talk about legal action re tax did spook me a bit, so decided that this made it too uncertain, so I exited a small, recently acquired position.
Somero Enterprises Inc (LON:SOM) - again, more a forced disposal, due to margin calls. I’d like to buy back in at some stage, but feel there could be more % upside on other things for now.
Works Co Uk (LON:WRKS) - it does look cheap, and liquidity looks OK for now. But is that good enough reason to hold? I decided not. If it does a CVA to thin out & reduce the cost of its >500 shops, then I would look at buying back in, possibly.
Best Of The Best (LON:BOTB) - I still hold some, but have reduced it from a large, to a small position. That might have been a mistake though, as the company seems to have really cracked digital marketing, with great results & growth. If bid talks fall through (likely I think), then I’d be looking to buy back on any downwards spike, possibly. Very illiquid. Terrific, honest management.
Short positions - none. I find that shorting is so risky, and your timing has to be near-perfect, that I’ve decided to run a long-only portfolio at the moment. I made big profits from shorting the indices in Feb-Mar, but gave it all back over the summer. Probably best to stick to what I have some kind of edge in (small caps).
I hope you found that interesting, and welcome all discussion on the stocks mentioned (positive or negative) - preferably rational views, backed up with facts & figures, rather than how you “feel” about something, which doesn’t really matter! Over-riding our feelings is a good skill for investors to learn, in some cases anyway.
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Jack’s section
Novacyt (LON:NCYT)
Share price: 844.11p (-5.9%)
Shares in issue: 70,626,248
Market cap: £596m
(I hold)
It’s been another remarkable week for many of the Covid testing stocks, with last Monday seeing many of them plummet by almost 50% in value in a single day.
You can get a sense of the news-driven volatility from the Novacyt Sa (LON:NCYT) Heiken Ashi chart below - see that the body of Monday’s ‘stick’ shows a reasonable open and close - but the long shadows of the intraday high and low tell the real story.
That’s a lot of volatility to handle and it’s not for everyone.
That said, Novacyt’s share price has subsequently rebounded. It can be differentiated from its listed peers by its considerable government contracts and the manufacturing base it has rapidly acquired and scaled up.
Last week, following the drop on Monday, directors bought more than half a million pounds’ worth of Novacyt stock. To recap, we had:
- Edwin Snape, NED, buying 1,080 shares at a price of £7.15 per share for £7,712 on 11 November,
- Graham Mullis, CEO, buying 60,875 shares at a price of £8.17 per share for £497,349 on 12 November,
- Jean-Pierre Crinelli, NED, buying 1,541 shares at a price of €9.70 per share for around £13,453 on 13 November, and
- James McCarthy, corporate consultant, buying 10,000 shares at an average price of £8.953 per share for £89,530 on 13 November.
So an RNS from Novacyt almost every day of last week and we have another one to dig into today.
This announcement should be encouraging to holders but I wonder if more guidance on actual trading is required in order to actively convert neutral onlookers to the investment case.
That said, Novacity has certainly been busy. Highlights include:
- Encouraging interim data from the ongoing care homes trial,
- Launch of PROmate™, a new product to improve the workflow efficiency of Novacyt's NPT system for COVID-19 testing,
- Development of a loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) test for COVID-19,
- Development of an antibody lateral flow test (LFT) for COVID-19,
- Development of a research-use-only (RUO) test for a new strain of COVID-19.
Of the above, perhaps PROmate is the most significant in the near-term.
Care home trial
Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) has completed an interim review of Novacyt’s near-patient testing (NPT) system in the ongoing care home study.
Over 4,000 samples have been analysed with ‘>99% clinical sensitivity and specificity when compared to a standard central laboratory system.’ The clinical trial is being expanded and Novacyt’s NPT systems are being deployed into additional settings.
PROmate™
This is a new CE Mark approved product ‘designed to further improve the workflow efficiency of COVID-19 testing when used in combination with the Company's q16 and q32 instruments’ - a move possibly in response to reports that some hospitals were struggling to operate the company’s testing products. Novacyt says:
The reagents involved in its COVID-19 RNA extraction and PCR test products have been repackaged to reduce operator complexity and improve cycle times. In addition, PROmate™ uses a viral inactivation methodology validated by Public Health England for potential use outside of laboratory environments.
LAMP COVID-19 test
Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) technology is a low-cost alternative to detect COVID-19 (and other diseases).
Novacyt is currently developing a LAMP test for COVID-19 that is designed to be compatible with its q16 and q32 instruments and ‘is also in active discussions with several potential partners who are seeking support to develop, manufacture and supply LAMP tests for their instrument platforms.’
Antibody lateral flow test for COVID-19
The Company is also working on developing an IgG antibody lateral flow test (LFT) for use as a rapid antibody test for professional use, which is expected to launch during Q1 2021 and is expected to take approximately 20 minutes or less to give a result.
RUO test for a new strain of COVID-19
Novacyt is developing a research-use-only (ROU) PCR test for a specific new strain of the virus found in mink. It expects to launch this novel test in December 2020 should clinical demand arise.
Graham Mullis, Group CEO of Novacyt, commented:
Not only do the additions to the portfolio broaden the Company's ability to support clinicians and laboratories through the pandemic, they also strengthen our position in infectious disease diagnostics as we continue to redefine our R&D pipeline for the next three years, in line with our long-term growth strategy.
Conclusion
The R&D work significantly broadens the Covid testing portfolio. Importantly, Novacyt is already trusted by the government and embedded into the NHS with proven ability to manufacture at scale.
Priority number one must be to deliver strong organic revenue growth in its core business though, and the market is likely waiting to hear a confirmation of the revenue trend hinted at in the group’s half-year results. On this point, directors believe demand for its products will continue to grow well into 2021 and Novacyt has submitted 15 new patents to protect its Covid portfolio.
This is a volatile part of the market and I imagine a lot of investors have had their hands burnt recently, so these stocks should come with a health warning. There’s a risk that Pfizer’s vaccine announcement could lead to some delayed selling pressure and shareholder churn.
What’s more, we will hear more news on vaccines in the coming weeks. How will Novacyt’s share price hold up?
And then there is the longer term ambition to use Covid cash to build a sustainable £1bn+ diagnostics company. It’s promising but there is execution risk in my opinion, and that should be considered by potential investors and reflected in the share price.
This is an experienced management team but rapidly assembling a diagnostics company of substantial scale via M&A is no small feat. It will be a tricky task to accomplish this at the same time as scaling up and testing for Covid.
That said, I continue to hold and believe that of all of these listed companies, Novacyt is the one that is already profiting and enacting significant transformation.
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133 comments
Thanks Ken,
Hopefully Stocko will fix this now. I cannot however help thinking that LSE could do SO much more to clarify what "instruments" they are listing - of course if they did this there might be a more level playing field and that is not so good for those living at the top of the hill.
Gromley
Oliver from Stockopedia helpdesk has now looked further in to this. It seems the figures for GPSS are for the share, and the reason the figures for GPSS are different is because of the different share prices for GPM and GPSS. He is finding out how to deal with it. The obvious and quick way would be to remove the GPSS figures pronto. It’s caused me to ponder the reliability of their figures in general. e.g their 2 lists of highest dividend paying shares are also hopelessly wrong.
yes ken, that chimes with the earlier example I recall seeing.
The issue comes down I believe to the fact that the fundamentals related to the company or "issuer" in LSE parlance, whereas the ticker/epic/stock code is the "instrument" (or instruments) issued by the issuer.
It should all work fine for 'ordinary' shares, but when you've got other odd instruments that may have different rights to company assets, dividends etc it all gets a bit messy.
The solution I think is (1) differentiate between the ordinary shares and other instruments and then (2) for the other instruments either (a) display no fundamentals or (b) go through an unpicking calculation to understand what the specifics are.
Personally I would go for option (a) both because it is simpler and it reduces the potential for misunderstanding - it is probably misleading to include a warrant or 'B Share' in a screener as (for one thing) the downside protection is probably not the same as for the actual equity.
I'll link Oliver into my reply here.
I won't be correcting you on that Timarr as far as I can see there has been (inexplicably in my view) very little proper research into the subject - the "challenge group" refer to some (essentially suggestive) evidence on the point but do point out that this would have to be finessed in order to structure challenger trials correctly. This is probably redundant now as imv challenger trials have been pretty much squeezed out of the landscape (at least for now) by the last two weeks announcements,
Probably entirely scurrilous of me to consider, but I cannot help at least speculating as to whether fields of research were somewhat filter on the basis of which may have been easier to monetise.
On Saga, there's an investor presentation on their website from November 2019. Page 18 steps through the net operating cashflow per ship which they give in the range £2-7m per annum based on load factor of 85%. They give sensitivities on this on page 19. Profitability is highly sensitive to load factor +/-1% load factor impacts EBITDA +/- £1M.
Based on above, cruise side of business has a lot to do to stay profitable and add modestly to bottom line cashflow.
Interested in views
£NYCT. Outstanding Jack.
As with £ARM if has 'legs' then will be swallowed up eventually as our broke government and sceptical investors don't 'step up to the plate'.
For me the growth was when the 'big boys' starting to pile in. Watch for non-exec directors.
Saga (LON:SAGA) I managed to get in at around 130p which I thought was an absolute steal. I hadn't expected to see it so low given the placing was 180p and the rejected takeover was 475p. I agree with your comments Paul that this could be a real bargain driven by fear and has the potential to multi-bag, especially if vaccines change the travel dynamic quickly. Anyway time will tell but I'm pleased with the performance so far. It's not often I catch something bang on the lows!
intraday - i watched it go as low as 122p when Saga (LON:SAGA) had negative sentiment. There I was sitting on the sidelines waiting for an even lower price before entry. SP went upwards thereafter. Oops!
Hi Jack,
If you have posted it, where's should I look for your holdings list please?
I suspect your attitude to risk is a bit racier than mine but less racey than Paul's, and am aware we have some holdings in common.
Thank you & Kind Regards, Martin
P.S. Not that I am suggesting anyone should buy anything on the back of this but, in a spirit of openness, my SIPP holdings in size order, largest first are, Games Workshop (LON:GAW), Jarvis Securities (LON:JIM), Spectra Systems (LON:SPSY), Premier Foods (LON:PFD), Volex (LON:VLX), Capital (LON:CAPD), Goodwin (LON:GDWN), Team17 (LON:TM17), Tandem (LON:TND), Mpac (LON:MPAC), Venture Life (LON:VLG), Computacenter (LON:CCC), Ixico (LON:IXI), Sigmaroc (LON:SRC), Frontier Developments (LON:FDEV), Up Global Sourcing Holdings (LON:UPGS)
I noticed Tracsis (LON:TRCS) SP has not moved much.
Vaccines got to be good news for them. I hold.
Previous TU's have been extremely positive given covid. Now that events / crowd control could be back on the horizon soon, I would imagine their Traffic & Data division will prosper. Prior to covid, appear to be going strong. Made a few acquisition in 2018/2019 .
Super prudent with their cash. SP fallen circa 50% from Jan 20 high but has not picked up much from its lowest offer price 510p.
"Tracsis has a blue-chip client base which includes all major UK transport owning Groups. The business also works extensively with Network Rail, the Department of Transport, TfL, multiple local authorities, major outdoor music and sporting event organisers, and a wide variety of large engineering and infrastructure companies."
Finncap have excellent broker notes on them - from Aug 20. https://researchlibrary.finnca...
Target price of Finncap is 900p. Sounds like a company that was temporarily stopped in its tracs (get it!) but with potential vaccine news, can tremendous upside. DYOR.
Thank you, Paul, for Saga (LON:SAGA) - it was on my list, but your analysis helped me commit. It could yet backfire but so far so GOOD.
I had noticed that generally £Boo had managed to keep a low profile for a few weeks now, A wise move on their part; better to wait to be able to report a raft of achievements re their ESG agenda rather than talk about what they are going to do. If that can be linked with stonking results, so much the better!
HI All
Apologies if I have missed everything, but has anyone any idea what has happened on Dx (group) (LON:DX.) today?
Smallish Director purchase but otherwise no news showing.
Or is this just part of the market madness and kind of balances out the other holdings which have gone downwards by a similar percentage?
Cheers
Tommy
@Tommy H - DX Group was tipped in the Momentum Investor tipsheet... along with De La Rue.
the Momentum Investor tipsheet...
is that something you need to sign up for, or is there a link
https://www.momentuminvestor.co.uk/
Thank you Ed
I do not get why this was not announced as an RNS but Mitchells & Butlers (LON:MAB) are set to close 20 sites.
https://www.cityam.com/all-bar...
Judging by the share price chart, it was announced just before noon - as that is when the share price shot up 7%. If the BoD do not consider it to be market sensitive news, the market seems to disagree.
Edit : Actually according to the Stocko news feed , the Telegraph actually ran the story yesterday, so perhaps I am mis-reading what caused the rise.
Hi Gromley
I would have thought with one of the broadsheets running the story there should have been some sort of statement at 07:00 even if confirming the rumor. Or maybe their press team get in at 09:00 and catch up with the weekend news at that point and favor a different politically leaning paper for their own personal read.
Cheers
Tommy
Paul.
Very interesting to read about your holdings. Lke you, i like stocks where something is broken but can be fixed if the company has runway.
On NewRiver you highlight the risk of CVAs which as a general comment is true but is noit so relevant for NewRiver. NewRiver has actually had a very low level of CVAs over last two years. The management claims that they have low exposure to types of retail where the incidence of CVAs is high such as department stores, high fashion and casual dining. Instead, NewRiver property is let largely to discounters such as B&M who have been doing well during Covid and have a more resilient model to withstand the structural shift to online.
I would agree that there is an indirect effect of CVAs in that they affect retail property valuations in general. This may affect NRR valuations when valuers mark them to market. But as long as rentals are paid the company would have runway.
Vaccine madness again in market. I hope it works perfect, but it doesn't make sense to me to see growth stocks to rush into buying junk insolvent companies such as Cineworld just because of FOMO (fear of missing out). Wisdom!
Hi Paul
Your dog looks a cutie. Hope it goes OK.
No mention of Sosandar (LON:SOS) (Sosandar) in your list. Did you sell these in the end?
As a matter of interest my top holdings are:-
Belvoir (LON:BLV) Belvoir lettings
Boohoo (LON:BOO) BooHoo
De La Rue (LON:DLAR) De La Rue
£G4m Gear4Music
Sosandar (LON:SOS) Sosandar
Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) Sylvania Platinum
Venture Life (LON:VLG) Venture life
Volex (LON:VLX) Volex
Xaar (LON:XAR) Xaar holdings
Thanks
Lloyd
many thanks as always Paul for your thoughts. Very pleased that I hold 6 of the shares you have listed and Boohoo is about 25% of my portfolio and I am also buying on dips. Another favourite of mine is Polar Capital Holdings and like Boohoo and Redde it’s a share I will happily hold onto for the long term
Intercede (LON:IGP) up 16.7% at the moment. In another place (as they say in Parliament) it is attributed to "Paul Scott highlighting this morning on Stockopedia that its his second highest holding".
!!!!!
"I think we are likely to get more good news generally on treatments & vaccines, so even if shares slip backwards in between news, there should be regular fillips from here onwards, possibly?"
Good timing Paul.
There has been another jump in shareprices just now as another company announces it's vaccine is 94% effective.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/1...
A warning about Stockopedia stock page figures.
Hopefully this is just a one off, and doesn’t apply to many other shares or Investment Trusts, but ALL the figures on the Golden Prospect Subscription shares stock page are fiction!
Here’s that page:-
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/golden-prospect-precious-metals-LON:GPSS/
There are figures going back to 2014. GPSS was issued in 2017 and didn’t even exist then!
GPSS is just like a Tesco voucher that gives holders the right to buy a certain product at a certain price by a fixed date. GPSS is the same, and gives holders the right to buy Golden Prospect investment Trust shares at 46.14p by November 30th expiry date.
GPSS has NO revenues, no casflow. Nothing. Yet look at the page to see a mass of greens, positive cash flow, an extraordinarily low PE ratio and a green for lack of bankruptcy risk. OK a voucher can’t go bust, but GPSS could expire worthless at the end of this month. So “safe” for bankruptcy risk is misleading. And aren’t the fictional quality graphics impressive too.
I questioned Stockopedia about this, but apart from one reply saying that they got these figures from the London Stock Exchange they did not respond to points like the ones made in this post.
I use stock pages a LOT including for Investment Trusts but now have doubts about how reliable their figures really are.
For investment trusts you're much better off using the AIC - excellent website and very good data. Stockopedia is great but clearly ITs involve completely different criteria - most of the traditional metrics (PE multiples, ROCE) are irrelevant for ITs.
Bouden54.
I agree that AIC are far better for Investment Trusts. The point of my post though was to show that ALL the figures for GPSS (Golden Prospect Subscription Shares) are fiction, and that raises doubts about the reliability of their figures across the board. I
I would like an answer to this. How is possible to have figures going back to 2014 for a company that has only traded since 2017? I use stocko for everything (although always doublecheck with another provider). I’m happy to accept the excuse “bad at ITs” or “slow to update changes” but this seems more like a fiction. Sorry if I’m off base here (I haven’t checked it myself) but you can’t have someone posting a complaint like this 9 hours ago and no reply from anyone at stocko - it’s too important...
I have never even heard of these before but took up the challenge and found the answer blindingly simple : Golden Prospect Precious Metals Limited has two classes of shares - ordinary shares and subscription shares. This is far too complex for Stocko - it is the same company so must share the same figures. Open these two in adjacent tabs and flick between them - you will see most of the figures are identical:
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/golden-prospect-precious-metals-LON:GPM/
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/golden-prospect-precious-metals-LON:GPSS/
Aha - two classes of shares Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LON:GPM) and Golden Prospect Precious Metals (LON:GPSS) - there was a similar issue raised a couple of months ago about another "stock", but I cannot now recall the details.
From the LSE :
GPM is "ORD SHS 0.1P" - essentially shares in the company.
GPSS is "SUB SHS NPV" - I don't profess to know what that means,
When it comes to what LSE market these trade on, the description is "ADMISSION TO TRADING ONLY" - I can't remember the precise distinction now, but I seem to think it means they are tradeable on the LSE, but not formally listed there, When I looked before, I concluded that it was something I did not need to understand!
Gromley.
GPSS is a Subscription share. In other words it is a warrant. But call them warrants and they are not allowed in ISAs but call them Subscription Shares and they are! There used to be a lot of Subscription Shares and warrants on the UK market, but now there are very few left.
Stockopedia are now aware that the GPSS figures are farcical and I’m hoping they will do the obvious thing and simply remove them all, as errors like this don’t inspire confidence in their figures generally.
bought into Saga this morning @196 , so got some of this morning tick up. apart from the financials the deciding factor was from a cruise point of view - people of a certain age have not been affected financially by Covid, will be higher in the queue for any available vaccine and most i have spoken to cannot wait to get on with their lives, whats not to like? . i did meet Roger De Hann's brother years ago on holiday, he had worked for the business but wasnt any more. one of the most pleasant people you could ask to meet
There is an interesting market signal coming from Investment Trust discounts which are coming right in this month, particularly on small company ITs like Jpmorgan Smaller Companies Investment Trust (LON:JMI), Blackrock Smaller Companies Trust (LON:BRSC), Herald Investment Trust (LON:HRI) and £AAT. Not being as brave as some of you I use ITs a lot and since April have been able to buy into these at discounts of up to 20%. In some cases these have now all but disappeared. This can be a bullish signal but I don't like owning ITs with a premium.
Here are my heat maps for today (prices as at 9:45am).
Overall state of the market by ICB Industry classification:
Key to the Industry heat map contents:
SVCR filtered to 'interesting' instruments (reporting soon or recently, trending, breaking out, or moving more than the 20d EMA of ATR):
Big movers today (moving more than 20d ATR EMA against either yesterdays close, or today's open - not limited to small caps):
And finally the key to the heat map contents:
The heatmaps are ordered by Stock Rank™, and are limited to the top 80 instruments.
The heatmaps are images and will be resized by your browser to fit your screen. If the heatmaps images are too small to read on your screen, right-click on the image and select 'Open image in new tab'. This will open the heatmap in a new tab in your browser where they can be zoomed as necessary.
I use heatmaps a lot and generate many as part of my research. I use them to help me quickly find instruments which pass my basic 'tradeable' criteria ('T': profitable, low-debt, reasonable liquidity), have a high Stock Rank™ and Quality Rank, and are trending (Tr+ or Tr++) or breaking out (Br+ or Br++) ideally on increased volume (V+). I then research the individual instruments further using the Stockopedia Stock Report.
How (or indeed if) you use the heatmaps is up to you, I contribute them here in the hope that others may also find them interesting or useful.
greensiax
#IGP (Intercede)
Hi Paul.
You first alerted to me to IGP when you spoke at Mello so thank you. After further research I started buying just under 30p. It also happens to be about 11% of my invested funds.
I had a telephone call a month ago with the CEO Andrew Walker which was very reassuring and I bought more in the recent dip. He says the momentum is with them, costs are covered, 99% margin and they are now working on executing the final part of the plan which is to increase revenue.
I did ask if there might be a buy-out. Andrew seemed rather taken aback by this thought and then said that it would have to be at a very high premium. I hope they are not bought out as the potential is the reason I own shares. Andrew owns 1,5million shares in IGP which is good to see from a CFO.
Michael
Hi Paul, I thoroughly enjoyed reading your section about your Buys & Sells, it made for very interesting reading. I only hold one share in common with you and that is Volex (LON:VLX), having already multi bagged I believe it will continue to multi bag.
Would it be possible for you & Jack to provide your current Buys & Sells on a monthly/quarterly basis so that subscribers can keep up to date on your progress?
Just taken a look at Volex - it does look interesting. The one thing I don't like is the margin (Net profit margin is 3.76%). Is this always going to be a low margin business (so growth comes from scale) or is there potential to increase margin?
Hi Robert, there was an good presentation recently on Invester Meet Me
https://www.investormeetcompan...
I cannot remember the slide numbers but the margin is currently >8% from memory and getting closer to 10% depending on the division in question.
Tommy.
ps. I Hold
Many thanks
I don't think we have a right to know Paul/Jack's buys and sells - this isn't a tipsheet and knowing their trades just tempts people to follow them blindly. I personally welcome the random nature of these updates - you never know what to expect on any one day.
While I'm writing, thanks to all on this site. In recent years, whenever I've been tempted to have a punt after reading some heady nonsense somewhere I check on what's been written on that company here - and nine times out of ten it chucks a bucket of cold water over me and I save my money!
I understand your point fishcake but I for one really appreciate their portfolio update post and I would certainly like to see this as a regular monthly feature. IMHO this is less about our 'right to know' and more about their willingness to share. I am pretty confident that the vast majority of those on here don't 'follow blindly' and having paid to view the stock reports actually study them, as well as other intelligence before investing. Stockopedia has never been a tips site and I don't think this useful feature makes it any more so.
Chriskay, yes I agree with you and I also believe the vast majority of subscribers don't 'follow blindly' what Paul's view happens to be regarding shares. If I was to 'follow blindly' then I would hold every single share which Paul owns but I don't. He has his own criteria for buying shares which he likes and I have my own search criteria which has served me very well for decades. Hence, the reason why we only hold one share in common Volex (LON:VLX) which I bought last summer.
What I liked today regards Paul kindly producing his list of shares which he has bought and sold is, rather than just itemise them, he has also given his reasons behind each purchase and sale. This helps to educate investors on what to look for when investing in the stock market so that hopefully they make fewer mistakes.
I also don't think we have a right to hear Paul's holdings, but if Paul is happy to periodically share details as he has done today, then that's good to see.
Clearly others think so as well, since today's article is one of the most popular articles on this board.
So thank you for writing it Paul & Jack.
I generally learn much more reading from authors who have "skin in the game" with some of the stocks they review.
Brilliant comment fishcake.
Hi Fishcake,
It's fine, I'm happy to share my positions with people. It's just that generally I hold the same things for a long time, several years typically. So portfolio updates from me would generally just be repetition.
The main reason I did an update here, was that I've found some (I think!) cracking new stocks lately, and thought it would be fun to share them.
I should add that my big positions are long term holds, and for the avoidance of doubt, I NEVER sell into short term price fluctuations which may or may not have been assisted by positive comments from me. To my mind, that is crossing a line, and it's not something I ever do. I'll leave the short term trading to others.
The only exception to that, is if I'm forced out of something because of a margin call, which does happen with depressing regularity, due to my lack of discipline.
Regards, Paul.
With regards to Novacyt, a poster called Sharedealer2019 on LSE today made what I think is a good point:
"Huge increase in machines Q16 and Q32 let’s not forget the small amount of machines the UK Gov took were worth £400 million, they now have capacity to produce 5x that!!"
The relevant paragraph for this in today's RNS from Novacyt is:
"Further to the announcement on 15 October 2020 when Novacyt acquired IT-IS International, the Company has significantly increased the manufacturing capability of IT-IS to manage the growing demand for its q16 and q32 instruments. From November 2020, the Company has scaled-up manufacturing capacity for instrument production more than five-fold, with further expansion planned, depending on continued demand."
Today's RNS can be found here:
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/novacyt-sa-LON:NCYT/news/novacyt-sa-rampd-update-urn:newsml:reuters.com:20201116:nRSP3501Fa/
Hi Paul, i am a big admirer of your write ups. they sound very straight forward,honest and out of your heart.
I am a beginner in investing and your insights of a stock looks to me as a touch bearer and provides a strong base to evaluate other stocks in that similar business stream.Thanks a lot , you have been my virtual guru these days.
BTW , I keep seeing some folks in Stockopedia throwing virulent comments for your views, to those , apply common sense , if you like it "take it" , if you do not like it "simply ignore it". No one is forcing anyone here to commit on his or her views.
Paul thanks for sharing and good luck with the dog.
I thought I would share some of my holdings.
Motorpoint (LON:MOTR) - they don't have the huge costs that traditional dealerships have as they occupy large out of town locations. Supplying nearly new low mileage vehicles.
Naked Wines (LON:WINE) - I harp on about this a bit too much but a good business with successful expansion into the US. 4 X return on customer acquisition costs. Covid has been a catalyst but this will deliver continued growth. They launched their Christmas hampers last week and sold £7.4m in a day. I won't waffle on but I think there is serious upside in this.
Saga (LON:SAGA) - enough has been said. But a defined demographic. Travel will return so plenty of upside. Little downside as the insurance business covers the cash burn of travel. Beyond the return of travel there is also a turnaround story and a refocus of the brand in terms of messaging.
Legal & General (LON:LGEN) - dividends will return and this is a good profitable business with a focus on the elderly.
Marlowe (LON:MRL) - Lord Ashcroft of ADT fame is a major shareholder. It provides compliance type services that are not optional to businesses. Growing by acquisition. Figures are distorted by integration costs and goodwill.
Rightmove (LON:RMV) - I have done well on this and they seem to have integrated themselves into our lives. When we talk about buying houses most people look on Rightmove. However, estate agents don't like them as they are so dominant. I may look to take profits.
Strix (LON:KETL) - this looks like a steady long term hold for me. A simple product that is specified for most manufacturers of kettles, etc.. Dominant in it's market. New products being launched.
Jet2 (LON:JET2) - purely a punt that they will survive the C19 panic and that both revenue and profits will return in 2021.
Ally Financial in the US - a digital bank focussed on attracting deposits which gives them cheap funds to lend out on simple products such as car finance. Profitable, low overheads with the ability to roll out further products.
Boohoo (LON:BOO) - bought in the recent dip.
Sdi (LON:SDI) - I like this a lot. They buy up good profitable businesses and help them to grow. The P/E multiple of the listed business adds value immediately from the acquired multiple. The P/E will go up towards that of Judges Scientific.
Re broker issues, I just failed to get through to Hargreaves Lansdown to place a phone order for a German stock that can’t be traded online (SFC Energy).
That’s never happened to me before, I’ve always been answered immediately. I’m not sure why they would be “exceptionally busy” today.
I am able to buy it online through ii.
i am getting increasingly frustrated with HL. they dont answer the phone and they totally ignore any emails pointing out flaws in their platform. very rude and very short sighted to keep your head in the sand whilst your customers go elsewhere !!!
send them a secure message..I did headed as complaint and got a response
We have had 3 Yorkshire Terriers at different times and I am well aware of how traumatic it is when the end comes. After all they become part of your family. If the vet can do anything why not sell a few shares, have the operation done and still make the contribution to Zane. It is only money. Provided you can pay your way what does it matter if you have a few pound less.
Brilliant report.
Paul’s reports are the main reason why I subscribe to Stockopedia.
A great way to start the working day.
Thank you, all very much appreciated (as the hundreds of upticks show !)
Hi Paul, thanks for a great write-up as always. Does this mean you've exited Sosandar (LON:SOS) and, if so, why?
Hi Paul
Thank you so much for the portfolio review. Very interesting to see the specifics on position sizing, which I dont think I have seen before. Thank you.
I have the same confidence in Boohoo (LON:BOO) as you but having got caught with 22% in Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) and 20% in Rockrose Energy (LON:RRE) back in mid-March I have decided that I am going to be much more disciplined in position sizing and I have just shy of 10% of my pf in Boohoo (LON:BOO) though my emotional side keeps telling me to buy more, I am going to resist. As the share price increases at, I believe, a faster rate than other members of my pf, will see me top slice over that time frame to control the position size.
Regards
Michael.
Hi Paul,
Really surprising SOS (sosandar) not seen your portfolio. Is it exit your position ?
Bigdish (LON:DISH) "Moving development to India from Philippines to cut costs". Afraid I don't believe this Bigdish (LON:DISH) statement to be accurate (what are they not telling us?). I worked for a civil engineering firm that wanted to offshore part of its IT function around 2010. The salary differences ranged between 50% - 100% cheaper to recruit in the Philippines, compared to India. Admittedly this was quite a while ago, but I would be very surprised if this has changed much. Back then, India was far more established in IT and offered a wider range of skills across technology. This would be a better reason to move to India. It really seams they have gone back to the drawing board as there has been little mention of the app improvements etc. I sold my holding towards the end of Sept, when my position reached parity and lost all gains. Still, I watch out of interest and am considering a small punt if the price stabilises after today's news :)
I wouldn't have thought the middle of a pandemic was a very good time for £DISH to be moving their IT development activities unless they really have to. I've heard of significant challenges for people working from home in India because there isn't as developed a broadband structure in people's houses.
For anyone interested into some insights into the housebuilding and construction sectors and more specifically an update on the performance of Brickability (LON:BRCK) there is a webinar at 12 today with Chair John Richards. https://us02web.zoom.us/webina...
The Company has managed the Covid pandemic well and showed its confidence in a V shaped recovery by raising the dividend at last weeks interim results.
Paul, fantastic update and thanks for sharing your thoughts on these holdings.
On Saga (LON:SAGA) there was an interesting Sunday Times travel article yesterday where a writer joined a cruise ship, which sailed with 50% capability. Testing was undertaken multiple times before boarding, luggage was fogged, social distancing on-board was applied, no buffets, no contact with locals on stops, hand-sanitiser was everywhere & germ-busting UV light was applied in each cabin every night, yet still Covid got on-board with one passenger falling ill and 4 others were infected.
It does seem that until a vaccine is firmly in place, and that the vaccine prevents infection, rather than reduces symptoms, then cruising will be very hard to re-start safely, although there does seem to be a huge number of people who are waiting to be able to sail again, indicating significant pent-up demand.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/pas...
The think with Saga is that without the non cash item which is a £60m write off of goodwill the business posted a £15m profit. It has a focussed demographic as a target market and can own that space. I am a big believer in this share as a long term hold.
The thing with Saga is that their cruises are just a part of their business as Paul’s latest update reminds. They have a successful insurance business and a big general travel business too. Sometimes with Saga posts, the focus is just on the cruises.
The same happens with BOO with a big International online business, yet posts and the share price sometimes focus on and react just to events in the UK.
I agree with Paul that Saga looks far too cheap so hope he is right! Even after the recent strong bounce the share is still only just above the 12p (180p after consolidation) Open Offer price, and that 12p was a reduction from the original 15p/225p.
Also forgotten sometimes is the large stake bought by the son of Saga founder Roger De Haan and he paid a very big premium over the price then and the current price too for a good chunk of that stake.
interesting read Paul, thanks. good luck with your dog, been through that so i know how you must be feeling. i hold three of your holdings and would add (LON:MAB) as a bounce back winner. they have lots of very strong brands especially in the eating out trade, financials look OK. keep up the good work.
#VLG.
Very good news.
https://www.stockopedia.com/co...
Michael
7.45am and I have just read your 'recent buys' post Paul. It has made my day already! Some I hold and others I will definitely study further. You are top man Mr Scott and Stockopedia is an essential part of my investing! Thank you.
My morning smallcap tweet: DISH now into Indian
Venture Life (LON:VLG) Remote Monitored Systems (LON:RMS) DP Poland (LON:DPP) Iconic Labs (LON:ICON) BigDish (LON:DISH) Sensyne Health (LON:SENS) Novacyt SA (LON:NCYT) Proton Motor Power Systems (LON:PPS) Tricorn (LON:TCN) Rotala (LON:ROL) Brickability (LON:BRCK) Stobart (LON:STOB) Camellia (LON:CAM) Provexis (LON:PXS)
Venture Life (VLG) study concluded that co's two CPC based mouthwashes eradicated COVID completely within a 30 second exposure, in vitro. "Our clinical study of CPC-containing mouthwashes continues." [SP=86.9 Cap=73m]
Remote Monitored Systems (RMS) future demand for its anti-virus mask may outstrip the production line capacity of five million viricidal face masks per month. Co expects to supply its patented filter material to partner mask manufacturers until co has additional production lines. [SP=5 Cap=77m]
DP Poland (DPP) in connection with the possible acquisition of Dominium the CEO resigns, immediate effect.. She is thanked. [SP=7.25 Cap=18m]
Iconic Labs (ICON) management contract of Greencastle transferred to new owner Lovin' Media. Fee of £10k pcm + 25% of all profits if certain revenue and profit targets are met. [SP=0.01 Cap=4m]
BigDish (DISH) moving dev to India from Philippines to cut costs. CEO resigns, he is thanked. A new CEO, experienced in technology-led sales in international markets will be sought. [SP=1.62 Cap=6m]
Sensyne Health (SENS) 5 year research agreement with Somerset NHS Foundation Trust to enable the ethical application of clinical AI research to improve patient care and accelerate research into new medicines. The Somerset dataset covers 1.1m patients bringing total to co of 5.6m. Somerset gets 1.11% of co + an investment of up to £250k PA. [SP=92.5 Cap=119m]
Novacyt (NCYT) R&D Update. "Interim data from ongoing clinical trial in care homes confirms accuracy of Novacyt's near-patient testing (NCYT) system compared to central laboratory testing of COVID...Launch of PROmate™, a new product to improve the workflow efficiency of Novacyt's NPT system for COVID." And some other develepments. [SP=467.5 Cap=364m]. I hold.
Proton Motor Power (PPS) Sells one of its newly released product PM Frame. Initial unit is the first of a potential of 300 units for use as an uninterruptible power supply in road tunnels. [SP=29 Cap=195m]
Tricorn (TCN) new FD finds suspect accounting with a balance sheet exposure risk c. £3.6m plus an inter-company imbalance of c. £1m which is still being investigated. Mainly stock wrie-downs and debt recovery. "Trading has been extremely challenging over the last 9 months and whilst the outlook still remains uncertain, demand levels from a number of customers is increasing." [SP=8.1 Cap=4m]
Rolata (ROL) trading. Co continues to 'realign its operations to likely future requirements'. Won't renew lease on one depot serving Heathrow. Leases on a small number of coaches no renewed. Due to non-profit terms of Gon't support FY profit likely to be broadly the same at the normalised level as H1. [SP=34.5 Cap=17m]
Brickability (BRCK) CFO off sick. [SP=49.6 Cap=114m]
Stobart (STOB) Aer Lingus not to make Stobart Air preferred supplier for new commercial agreement from 2023. STOB "can exercise its right to an early break clause for the lease agreement of eight ATR aircraft in April 2023 at a cost to the Group of $21.2m (plus finance and maintenance costs). Doing so would allow Stobart Group to exit its pre-existing parent company guarantees." [SP=25 Cap=156m]
Camellia (CAM) $31m sales of Horizon Farm completes. [SP=6850 Cap=187m]
Provexis (PXS) distribution agreement for Fruitflow+ Omega-3 in China. More than 290m people in China are now thought to have cardiovascular disease, the target mkt. Tobacco mfrs must be gutted that this huge pool of customers are killing themselves. [SP=0.45 Cap=9m]
Great news from Venture Life (LON:VLG) this morning regarding their CPC based mouthwashes.
"In their published in-vitro[2] study, scientists at Cardiff University concluded that Venture Life's two CPC based mouthwashes eradicated the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) virus completely (>5log reduction, equivalent to 99.999%) within a 30 second exposure. The virus was supplied by Public Health England, unlike other similar studies reported in the media, which have not used the relevant COVID-19 virus, but a related strain of it."
RNS link
Unless Venture Life are proposing to spray the mouthwash into people's lungs and into their sinus cavity (or maybe pivot into a surface cleaner), I'm not sure what the benefit is apart from 'positive COVID new release'.
It's a big positive for dentists - get the punters to gargle for 30 secs and they are then less prone to spray infected saliva around. No one's saying that this is a cure, but I can see it increasing sales of their mouthwash (not all those tested worked) on the grounds that it can't do any harm.
Its mainly driving viral load. The higher the viral load the worse patients are in terms of the illness. If there's a possibility that using some sort of mouthwash on regular basis could stop people getting higher viral loads then its worth investigating.
This news is a complete non-entity. Alcohol, or CPC (the active ingredient in mouthwash) etc kill viruses. WOW. That fact is already known for decades. I hold VLG but not for any reason related to Covid. I wont complain about the 20% rise off the back of it though ;-)
Maybe Diageo could release a statement suggesting their entire top-shelf range kills Covid.
But this is not correct. Other mouthwashes containing alcohol were less or not at all effective according to this study. It is specifically the VLG products - Dentyl and I think Ultradex which are unique formulations and were used in this clinical trial.
I am already using Dentyl mouthwash before leaving the house as it gives a level of viral protection for some time after leaving home. Why wouldn't I?
Like you I am not in VLG for a Covid related reason but this is starting to look like it might be a rather nice cherry on the top of the cake. We are lucky! When bad things happen, we receive them with full force so when I get good luck, I will receive it accordingly, as it is mine - oh and yours!
Venture LIfe: Dentyl/Ultradex.
Agree a swig of mouthwash before going out or coming back home to reduce the 'load' sounds good to me. Don't believe you can get industrial strength alcohol to do the same job - and that has other downsides - hic!.
There are many benefits such as at the dentist. Dentistry has suffered a lot. The use of mouthwash at the start of the appointment would kill the virus and make it safe for the dentist.
The use of mouthwash prior to going out gives may well give protection for a period of time. The 2nd trial which will provide results early 2021 is looking at this.
I discussed this with the CFO last week - this is much more to this than you think.
It may give protection against flu and other similar viruses.
hi Paul, could you have a look at £mwe results please
My personal feeling is steady as she goes for £MWE.
The company plays in three different divisions all which are potentially expanding and all of which MWE seem to have a level of expertise in. The potential on water , 5G in particular are exciting and the company are winning contracts and expanding their reach.
I have held this one for a few years now and have seen some nice appreciation (think I am up about 150% so far) and I expect it to continue to make steady progress and might even be an acquisition target at some point.
Thanks for your detailed comments on your portfolio Paul.
I agree with you on Volex (LON:VLX) and Intercede (LON:IGP) (I hold both). I have been looking at LoopUp (LON:LOOP) recently. One thing that attracts me, which you didn't mention, is their sound system. It is separate (not voip) and hence secure (a lot of law firms are their customers) and also good quality (over the past months their has been some very bad sound (presumably via zoom or similar) which has detracted from some company presentations and even Tamzin interviews). The tie-up with Microsoft teams also has potential.
After last Monday when the market was frantic and people had difficulty getting online dealing to work a number on here said that they wanted to move brokers and there was discussion about exit fees. I mentioned that the FCA was about to abolish these (it was July 18 when they proposed to ban exit fees but the consultation dragged on ad nauseam ).
I have now had a Victor Meldrew "I don't believe it" moment on reading that the FCA have now dropped it:
https://www.financialplanningtoday.co.uk/news/item/12356-fca-drops-move-to-ban-platform-exit-fees
haha - I see what you did there - quoting Richard Wilson, boss of II - well played :-)
Even if they had dropped exit fees they would probably have captured the revenue another way sharw. As per my recent posts, I am in the process of exiting AJB for the super functionality of IG but through trading out and in again. I am really scratching my head on how to do this with minimum loss and wondered if the clever people on here might have some thoughts?
Paul, thanks for your write up, most enjoyable and ultra thanks for highlighting Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) some time ago, been in and out 3 times and back in, and made every time, also up with Saga (LON:SAGA) and potentially get some more.
Best wishes for tomorrow, and if something can be done, I am sure the people at Zane will understand, you have hooked a few of us in to commit once a month to their cause. I used to be "its only a dog", until I got one, would now spend the contents of my ISA if required.
Hi GloucesterBob,
That's marvellous news you and others are supporting ZANE with its humanitarian aid in Zimbabwe. I have no connection at all to Zimbabwe, but when Tom Benyon, the founder of ZANE, invited me to join the trustees on a visit there in 2019, it was something so special.
I see it as due diligence. I saw for myself, hundreds of pensioners, plus all the other ZANE schemes, like club foot, womens refuge, etc. Its as vivid in my mind now as it was then.
In a simple way, I got type 2 diabetes from covid, and years of being a greedy pig re sugar and wine, and all things fine, but my pain from diabetes is slowly reducing from medication - a cheap generic drug called Metformin.
Yet when I visited many care homes in Harare and Bulawayo, and several hundred old people, who needed that medication, they often couldn;t get it. They didnt once complain. But I know, if I stop taking the tablets, then within a few days, pain in my feet sets in that I cannot sleep. Then it leads to amputation apparently.
Hence for £15 per month, we can help someone in desperate need in Zimbabwe. I met those people, and I;ll never forget it. All of them grateful, educated, and decent. People from all backgrounds. MAny of them who fought for the UK Crown in long forgotten wars. I met them! Hundreds of them. White, black, whatever, I'm colour-blind. They're just people who need help. Let down by a terrible system.
Anyone else who can pay a few quid a month to ZANE, thank you from the bottom of my heart if you do. It literally keeps some very vulnerable people alive.
Best wishes, Paul.
Great report, thanks! What astounds me is how Paul, on top of all the work that goes into the daily reports, is able to allocate enough time to manage a potentially stressful high-commitment portfolio effectively. Plus research new ideas and engage in calls with management, on top of the increasingly common investor webinars from companies. Truly epic!
Great write up Paul, many thanks for this and your's (and Jack's) great output over the last few weeks. And as a commentator said last week, I love when you are able to bring all of yourself to these posts, warts 'n' all, when not riled by the idiotic minority of readers here.
Personally, I found myself in a very deep hole on the 18th March (36% down) and unlike some savvy investors, panicked and sold things when I shouldn't have done, near their lows. I managed to reduce this deficit to -10% by end of September by trading heavily but was frustrated by my performance as I am a full time investor and live off my returns.
However, I was very lucky to sell some shares in a private tech company in September (an 18 bagger which, incidentally, I read yesterday, is going to IPO in the next 18 months in the US).
With these fresh funds, I started investing heavily in mid October which as it turns out was great (lucky) timing. Big positions, apart from my stalwart Marlowe (LON:MRL), are now Boohoo (LON:BOO), Anglo Asian Mining (LON:AAZ) and £LOOP; medium positions are Barclays (LON:BARC), Legal & General (LON:LGEN), Glaxosmithkline (LON:GSK), Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSB), £BT, Games Workshop (LON:GAW), Vodafone (LON:VOD), Spectra Systems (LON:SPSY), Marks And Spencer (LON:MKS) and £FOXT. Smaller positions include Volex (LON:VLX), Saga (LON:SAGA), Goodwin (LON:GDWN), £ITM and £RPS.
Luckily these have worked out very well and I'm delighted to now be in positive territory with high expectations for significant growth in my big positions in the next few weeks.
I reckon we will hear more advances in COVID vaccines in the next few weeks which should settle the market's nerves even more about the pandemic. However Brexit is still a great uncertainty for UK markets but I'm banking on a deal being done so cash is now only 18% of my holdings and I feel (you said not to discuss feelings but ultimately, sleeping at night does not boil simply down to numbers) really happy about the holdings I have.
Onwards and upwards
Cheers
Francis
I recently bought Marlowe. In my opinion a great share. They are buying up small businesses in fragmented markets. An immediate value add as their earnings multiple within the plc is valued higher than they pay. Lord Ashcroft of ADT fame is a major shareholder. The services they offer are often a service that businesses have to have. I am planning to hold in the long term.
Welcome to £MRL CamRaid. Not a very popular share here but one I've been in since the second placing at £1 and the third at £1.7. I've added more last week as I reckon this will get to £10 within three years. Not sexy but as you say, a long term business that their customers have to buy to fulfil their statutory obligations. A very long-term hold for me.
cheers
Francis
My post from last night has been reported for moderation. Reasons might be:
All I can surmise is that the idiots who abuse others don't like it when someone calls them out. Just like the bully's we encountered at school all those years ago; underneath it all, you're simply cowards, in this case, hiding behind your online anonymity.
Cheers
Francis
I reported both of your abusive, unpleasant posts. The only idiotic posts I've seen on this board have come from a toxic minority of Paul Scott fans.
Bravo dodge1664....clearly you are not a coward
This is rather idiotic and provocative post that refers back to a provocative early post. The indignant post (how dare some report me!) then goes on to call other users cowards. I have openly disagreed with Francis here and used similar language to him in the process....I wonder if I get both reported and deleted for daring to do so....I mean he did call people out as coward for not openly disagreeing with his comments so I have been non cowardly...but then a lot of people do like to vote me down and even flag me for not being agreeable enough.
Does Stockopedia wish to empower sanctimonious holier than thou posters to virtual bully people?
If the first rule of fight club is that there are no rules...then we don't need a referee.
But if there is a referee that keeps the rules and so the peace...then the referee must not be biased.
Seems likely that there will always be outliers. Both sycophants and haters. As for the referee, an unenviable task.
At times I find the sycophants very irritating - holier than thou, self-appointed thought police. At times I find the deliberately disingenuous, haters equally frustrating (No reference to any specific person implied or intended!). But then I try to remember that I probably annoy the hell out of other people too, and so try to lighten up a bit.
Old saying, that I recall being repeated to me as a child, which later turned up as a pop song (for those of us slightly longer in the tooth).......It ain’t what you say, it’s the way that you say it....that’s what gets results!
For those not averse to remembering that they’re getting on a bit, a trip down memory lane
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%27Tain%27t_What_You_Do_(It%27s_the_Way_That_You_Do_It)
And just in case anyone is wondering, it’s the 1982 version that I can recall, not the first recording of 1939!
There really should be an additional Stockopedia medal - for posts managing to reference Bananarama on an investment forum. (I have probably grossly offended all of Fun Boy Three fans out there now . I hope they'll both accept my humble apologies.)
I see there was no article about Boohoo (LON:BOO) in the Sunday Times today. They seem to have got their claws into Philip Green instead. Good news, presumably.
Love it! :-D
I hear that Mahmud (founder of BOO) has been deeply upset by the press vendetta, but is getting his mojo back. As I always say, let the numbers do the talking. When the Guardian or Sunday Times ring you, just hang up!
Regards, Paul.
The last Sunday Times story about Boohoo that I read had no substance to it at all. They were just filling up space by writing about them.
HI Paul, thank you for such insight into your holdings and the decisions you arrive at to earn your crust in such a mad world we currently live in.
I wish you well for tomorrow with your beautiful dog and I'm hoping that science and your love and dedication can save your beautiful companion. Dogs are one of the most beautiful and fulfilling joys we have in our lives and most certainly the most loyal creatures on this earth.
Iv'e never posted before but I enjoy your candid and honest appraisal each day on SCVR and I have learnt a great deal from many others and yourself.
Many Thanks for all you do and fingers crossed for you tomorrow good Sir!
Thanks Nigel!
that's a lot of churn
I know, too much churn, but a lot of it is forced due to gearing.
There again, my core positions are long term, and I hold for years. Also, when I find things like Saga (LON:SAGA) and Volex (LON:VLX) and Boohoo (LON:BOO) where I see fantastic risk:reward, then selling lower conviction things to concentrate money into the best stuff, seems an obvious, and beneficial thing to do.
Anyway, everyone has their own approach. Lots of different approaches have merit. I'm not promoting mine, just explaining it.
Regards, Paul.
thanks Paul, I enjoy reading your approach, contrasting opinions can help shape a better view
I think Saga is a great opportunity and have been buying. I really like their strong brand, growing market place and the fact that the elderly will be getting the vaccine first, so the first to travel in 2021, maybe taking a second cruise using their unspent holiday money from this year.
Have been monitoring Saga (LON:SAGA) recently with a view to buying but was not aware until just now that they have extended their cruise suspension for a further 2 months
https://travel.saga.co.uk/trav...
Not what I was expecting and probably not what those invested would like to hear (unless already known) so shall continue to wait and see how things develop.
Thanks, but that Saga (LON:SAGA) news release is dated 3 Nov so surely in the price by now? Might explain some of the drift down last week?
Yeah, that's in the price already. Most people seem to be working on the basis that holidays may resume possibly from April, May, or June 2021.
You can easily price up the delays anyway. SAGA's travel division is burning £6-8m per month. The insurance division should cover that, so actually it doesn't really matter exactly when they re-start.
I think if you wait and see, you could miss out on explosive upside, because markets anticipate these things, rather than wait for things to become obvious.
Think about it clearly - once SAGA gets to say £200m p.a. profit (similar to previous levels, before it owned ships) then the market cap is likely to be £1bn+ (compared with c.£250m now)
So why does it matter if resumption of travel is April 2021, or July 2021, when the difference only costs Saga £18-24m, which it can easily afford?
Regards, pAul.
Probably worth mentioning that the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) has ordered all insurance companies to review their products in light of the Covid crisis - if any product's value has been significantly diminished, insurers are expected to provide refunds. Decisions on this have to be made by Dec 3rd 2020. Travel and Motor insurance are probably the two which may well fall into that poor value bracket this year. Difficult to say how much this will cost but nonetheless it could be a one-off dent.
I sold Ten Entertainment (LON:TEG) down near the lows, similar to you Paul with £BOWL. Was trying to be clever predicting a spike down which didn't really happen....obviously too many people were waiting for lockdown news to buy in, then vaccine news took it up 50%
I got lucky buying Revolution Bars (LON:RBG) as a punt for 9p when it seemed to have bottomed. Sold on Friday, happy to bank profits.
I managed to get stopped out of Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSB) right at the bottom, then watch it rally.
Taylor Wimpey (LON:TW.) Trade at 100p worked out well tho.
Win some, lose some.
I trimmed my portfolio from 20 shares down to 12 in the weeks leading up to lockdown. All I'm happy to hold until at least spring next year. I've added Loopup (LON:LOOP) and Concurrent Technologies (LON:CNC) since.
Boohoo (LON:BOO) was the one I thought would likely prosper lockdown or not, vaccine or not. Its my largest holding by far for this reason.
Im loving the market swings tho, it's offering some good entry points and the chance to trade a portion of my portfolio. I suspect we'll see plenty more wild movements either way this year and into next.
Fantastic effort again Paul. Wonderful honest insights. Kudos always..
Wow Paul, thank u so much for time + effort for this. Your dedication to us, SCVR readers - a mega thumbs up!
Hi Paul
I'm truly amazed by your ability to keep churning out good posts full of detail, nearly every day. It's an extraordinary effort.
Personally most of the things you invest in I wouldn't ever go near - which proves, I suppose, that there are many ways of making a turn on the markets. But as such I can't comment much on most of the stocks you mention.
What I do think is worth mentioning are the comments by Ugur Sahin, the brains behind the Pfizer vaccine. He's saying that the delivery of the vaccine will really only kick in from the spring and the target must be to get a vaccination program done before next winter. Which means, I'm afraid, that the next few months are going to be very tough indeed.
I'm sure we'll see more vaccine good news in the coming weeks, and it really does signal the end of the beginning. But between that and what will probably be a rolling series of lockdowns, either regional or national, there's every chance the next few months will be a bit of a rollercoaster. As we know, markets look ahead, so anything that can survive the next six months and which hasn't lost market share permanently should do really well.
On that latter note I was looking at some of the travel sector analysis coming out of Morgan Stanley today. They think that business travel budgets in 2021 will be 50% below those in 2019 and that 1 in 5 business hotel room nights have been permanently lost. Obviously those are "lost" either through recession or through video calls substitution.
From which I take the point that it will be critical to choose the recovery sectors wisely. Not all will recover equally. Simplistically I think business travel, commercial property and mid-market fashion retail look particularly vulnerable. It's really hard to see how Boohoo (LON:BOO) can't do well in these circumstances, ESG or no ESG.
Enough rambling. Keep up the good work!
timarr
Hi timarr,
Thanks for your feedback, In particular;
Personally most of the things you invest in I wouldn't ever go near - which proves, I suppose, that there are many ways of making a turn on the markets.
Interesting point! That got me thinking, most of my stock picks are turnarounds, or contrarian. So they probably wouldn't appeal to most people. But when the odd one pays off, it pays for all the mistakes, and plenty more on top! Sometimes anyway.
Everyone has their own approach, and a less risky, slow but sure approach, works very well, probably better actually, than my higher risk approach.
As regulars know, there is a clear mismatch between my cautious writing style, and what I actually do with my own money. But that's my perogative!
Best wishes, Paul.
Hi Timaar, I'm hoping that if the 5% most at risk people are vaccinated by the end of the year, then the argument for further lockdowns becomes much harder than it already is.
Hi Timaar, I'm hoping that if the 5% most at risk people are vaccinated by the end of the year, then the argument for further lockdowns becomes much harder than it already is.
Yep, I get the argument, but there are about 25% of the population technically at risk and in any case the real problem isn't deaths - which the UK has never tried to minimise, merely to contain - but overload of the NHS, which vaccinating only 5% won't prevent.
I suspect further lockdowns would be politically very difficult for the government but if we ended up running out of hospital beds - or staff - they'd be forced to. Let's hope we don't come to that. More likely we'll have local restrictions and continued travel bans.
In investing terms I'm assuming - as I've done since last April - that we'll have restrictions until next April and then gradual loosening as a vaccination program rolls out. What happens beyond that depends on what protection the vaccines give and how many people take them up. Investing the worst effected sectors requires analysis of cashflows through until probably July - as Paul has done with Saga (LON:SAGA) for instance.
Beyond that it's hard to foresee - presumably some parts of the population will permanently change their behaviour. We can roughly predict that for the corporate sector - travel budgets are already being set - but it's more difficult for the leisure sector. Historically when there's been a major shock it takes to 3 to 4 years for behaviour to go back to norms, which feels about right.
timarr
Good point on corporate budgets - my wife and I both work for ftse100 companies. Travel budgets for both have just been set about 70% down on last year so even with less covid there will be less corporate travel - be interesting to do more calcs on which airlines will be most impacted by this or where personal travel will pick up the slack?
For what it's worth i'd be doubtful of any further lockdown post 2 Dec especially if cases and deaths fail to materialise anything like the 1000 level (let alone the 4000 daily ridiculous model presented!!!). Not sure I agree timarr on NHS risk... the most at risk people are the NHS burden and if you can vaccinate those guys first then even 5% of population could be 90%+ of the NHS risk i suspect. There realy is no risk to younger people (0.02% death rate in 40-50 age group even including those will have underlying conditions who would get a vaccine so reducing the real death rate to 0.002% to the rest.... far far far less than walking out on the road and being hit by a car), and not many of those would burden the NHS.
There realy is no risk to younger people (0.02% death rate in 40-50 age group even including those will have underlying conditions who would get a vaccine so reducing the real death rate to 0.002% to the rest.... far far far less than walking out on the road and being hit by a car), and not many of those would burden the NHS.
The evidence suggests that even younger people are at risk of hospitalisation from CV-19 if they don't take their safety seriously. A study of 6 million people in August showed that 15% of those in hospital were aged 15-24, which was a consequence of a huge uplift in the number of cases in that age group. Another, much smaller, study showed that the majority of people in that age group were female and working in the hospitality and service industries.
https://www.thelancet.com/jour...
Basically none of us are safe until all of us are safe. Some of the research coming out about organ damage in people with long Covid is quite concerning but it's way too early to know how permanent that is. But why take the risk, especially with a vaccine on the way?
In any case, even if vaccinating the most at risk 5% would reduce the NHS burden it will take a while to do that. You're looking at February at the earliest and probably March. Frankly I don't have much faith in the government to roll out a mass vaccination program quickly, especially one as complex as this.
timarr
timarr
A study of 6 million people in August showed that 15% of those in hospital were aged 15-24,
Is that stat correct??? the linked article seems to suggest the stat you have quoted is % of infected people from sample - not % of hospitalised people. We know there is a high % of young infected people as many universities have been reporting cases by the bucketload. I would guess level of hospital admisisons from covid for those under 25 is much less than 15%
Note per most recent stats i can see % deaths for thoise under 45 is 1% of total deaths - Ie 99% of deaths are 45 and over - not nice if you are part of the 1% but those stats are very stark in how much more at risk of death older people are compared to younger people.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest#deaths-registered-by-age-group
Is that stat correct??? the linked article seems to suggest the stat you have quoted is % of infected people from sample - not % of hospitalised people.
Yep, you're right. It was actually about 12% of female patients. Their survival rates are far, far better - but the issue isn't mortality, it's NHS bed capacity.
The main point is that even though only a small proportion of younger people end up in hospital if enough of them get it that adds up to a lot. So if we just lift the restrictions because the most vulnerable 5% have been vaccinated (as suggested by the OP on this thread) we could still end up with a problem.
The Moderna vaccine news is great though, hopefully we'll get more of this in the coming weeks.
timarr
Someone please correct me if I am wrong, but I think the current vaccines in the headlines are "live" vaccines. If so most of those with impaired immune systems (a significant cause for someone to be classed as clinically extremely vulnerable) won't be offered the vaccine as this group are unable to have live vaccines. Therefore to reduce the risk to the NHS burden will still require vaccinating most of everyone else to achieve herd immunity.
This of course has an impact on the recovery for travel, hospitality, etc sectors & delay the recovery for these sectors longer than some currently believe.
Disclosure: I'm clinically extremely vulnerable, although otherwise very fit and not old. I'm doing my bit for the NHS by staying out of harm's way (and I'm a bit envious of those who can get out without risking the NHS).
Someone please correct me if I am wrong, but I think the current vaccines in the headlines are "live" vaccines.
Hi Lion Tamer
I'm glad to say you're wrong.
The Pfizer vaccine isn't a live one, don't know about Moderna although I'd assume the same as it uses similar technology. By contast the Oxford vaccine is live so it points up the importance of the Pfizer vaccine and the combination of programs underway.
I imagine this has been a difficult time - hopefully this week's news has been cheering.
timarr
Indeed timarr - both Pfizer & Moderna are using messenger RNA - which if I understand it correctly (dubious) are essentially using a passive facsimile of the SARS-COV-2 "spike".
It is really not my area of expertise, but I don't think any of the main vaccines being worked on are "live".
Very much off-topic but I did have a discussion related to the challenger trials (which AFAIK are not going to happen anywhere) observing the apparent correlation between initial viral load & severity of symptoms - did make me wonder if the answer to herd immunity was to expose the least vulnerable to a low load of the actual virus, AFAIK no-one is acting on my genius insight!
correlation between initial viral load & severity of symptoms
Hi Gromley
I believe - but am happy to be corrected - that the evidence for this correlation is uncertain.
A lot of the received truths around the virus seem to be either mediated by "commonsense" - i.e. obviously a higher viral load means you're likely to get a nasty dose - or by wishful thinking- i.e. T-cell immunity means if you've had the disease then you're safe. Broadly, if you look you can find the evidence for whatever you want to prove, and there'll be some scientist concurring with it. Scientists are human too, and prone to all the normal biases - that's why we have peer review.
All I've really learned by doing lots of reading around the topic is that the immune system is really, really complicated and the only way of figuring out how it'll behave under any given condition is to do the research. And, sadly, the research takes far longer than most people have patience.
timarr
That's about it - the mRNA vaccines enable the production of a protein which mimics the coronavirus spike, thus encouraging the production of natural antibodies which will attack it.
Tim Harford's programme today contained a lot of thought-provoking information about the new vaccines and the practicalities of administering them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/p...
Not so very different from the route by which vaccination originally came about.
People used to "innoculate" children with smallpox scabs (variolation) to allow them to get a mild form of smallpox while still very young and able to fight it off more easily. Later on, Jenner noticed that cowpox protected you against smallpox and invented vaccination - which is basically innoculation with cowpox to avoid catching smallpox.
I have wondered myself whether certain groups could be innoculated with a low dose of COVID. Rather famously, Jenner decided to do a "challenger" trial with a young boy and didn't need to get any permissions from any overseeing health bodies! It was a lot easier to do this sort of what-if experiment back in those days!
Thanks Timarr and Gromley, very good news (potentially)
Hi Timarr & Gromley
I thought I'd seen something somewhere, and finally found it:
"There will also be some people - such as those with a weak immune system - who will not be able to have the vaccine. "
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/exp...
Strangely it is under the heading "Will it offer lasting protection?" However this is the only place I've found it so far, so hopefully it's not true, or at least not as simple as it seems.
Sorry, because I know many are fed up with continuing discussions re Covid, but I think you're right about restrictions continuing for many months to come. Now disclosed that Boris has gone into hiding again (they call it self-isolation) even though he's had Covid already and, as he says, is "bursting with antibodies".
So given that he's 99.999recurring% immune he's "got to interrupt the spread of the disease and one of the ways we can do that now is by self-isolating for 14 days when contacted by Test and Trace.".
The vaccination is likely to give the same immunity as having had and recovered from Covid so, going by "their" logic, people who get the vaccination will still have to self-isolate should they later come into contact with someone testing positive. That doesn't sound like much progress to me - are we going to have to wait until the whole population is vaccinated before returning to normality? If so, forget Spring 2011 - it's going to be a lot later than that.
Hard hat at the ready for all the incoming thumbs downs.
I think you are right Laughton that there only very limited reductions in Covid restrictions over the next few months. At the time of the Pfizer vaccine announcement I thought the scientists were at pains to point this out - but nobody seemed to want to listen.
That is what (wrongly so far) has kept me out of the recent hospitality rally - I think there is a penny still to drop here that Christmas is still cancelled.
I do disagree however that isolation for those "immune" or vaccinated removes the benefit. It may well be an unnecessary belt and braces approach and as such it may well be relaxed in the future. However the key benefit of the vaccine if as successful as led, will be the relatively rapid reduction of prevalence and reproduction; which in turn will lead to reduction of isolations (whether necessary or not),
We are looking though at the spring at earliest for that however in my view, we still have the hurdles of approval and building logistics capability before we even get the first people on to the one month treatment cycle.
There are three key factors that are going to hold back reducing restrictions in the next 6 months:
1) logistics in validating, producing and administrating vaccines (totally understandable)
2) continued risk of overwhelming the NHS (fine but much better dealt with a regionalized response)
3) government inability to admit they may have been wrong/ overreacted or to change course based on new information (totally unacceptable).
The reality is though that our job as investors is to accept the reality of the world the way it is rather than how we would like it to be. Government is simply not set up to deal with a crisis like CV19 (as I think has been amply proven).
While walking the dog this morning I listened to ‘State of the Markets’ a podcast I had almost unsubscribed to as they have interviewed more and more extreme nut jobs over the past few months. However I have to recommend their interview with George Cooper published yesterday - a great interview with a clear thinker detailing the very human issues we are going to have changing course now.
The ship of state turns exceedingly slowly...
Yes I do find this quite bizarre! Wasn't it reported only last month that only around half a dozen cases of re-infection had been documented? That's over the whole wide world. Possibly one of the many reasons for low compliance with the T&T advice. Conspiracist theories will have a field day!
Anyway, stunning news from Moderna pre-market open is giving a boost to the post-covid trades, even though UK reportedly has none on order.
Agree it's going to be a lot later than spring 2011! ! :-)
5% of the population is 3m+ people. The Pfizer vaccine requires two doses, weeks apart. I will be astonished if 300,000 people have had two doses by the end of the year.
I expect restrictions and shielding to continue until the weather improves significantly in the Spring at the earliest.
Probably until seasonal flu dies off as you say. Even though more and more of us must have antibodies (must be at least 250k+ people per week given c25k daily infections known about and probably as many not known about) and all this 'you may be reinfected' or 'antibodies only last 4 months' malarky. T-cells also give a level of immunity and there are about a dozen cases of reinfection out of the entire world population. At some point govt must see sense and less/no need of self-isolation of proven people with positive infection, antibodies or vaccine (or ideally all under 50 not with underlying conditions) should get us up and running by spring when funnily enough the seasonal flu would die off anyway and we realise half the current cases were just substituted for that
Great reading! I loved the content.
I’m with you investing in Boohoo (LON:BOO) and Shoe Zone (LON:SHOE), I see great potential in both but a higher reward in Shoe Zone (LON:SHOE) in the mid-long term.