Small Cap Value Report (Mon 30 Nov 2020) - DLAR, CAR, TUNG, MBH, TRMR, VCP

29th Nov '20 by Paul Scott

62 comments 9391 reads

Good morning, it's Paul here with the SCVR for Monday.

I've done some work over the weekend, catching up on some of last week's backlog, as follows;

Agenda -

De La Rue (LON:DLAR) - Half year results

Carclo (LON:CAR) - Interim results

Tungsten (LON:TUNG) - H1 Trading update (profit warning)

Michelmersh Brick Holdings (LON:MBH) - Trading update

Tremor International (LON:TRMR) - Positive trading update

Victoria (LON:VCP) - Interim results

Today's report is now finished.

Mello Monday - today!

Yes, it’s that time again. David Stredder’s interesting & enjoyable Zoom investor evenings are proving very popular. Most of the 500 available places have already been filled, with annual passes selling well.

I’ve been asked to appear on the BASH (Buy, Avoid, Sell, Hold) stock discussion panel tonight. Also I’ll be briefly plugging my sister-in-law Lauren’s Christmas harp concerts on there too (see below). There are some really interesting speakers and companies that will be giving presentations.

3 hours might seem like a long time, but the time flies, and of course being at home, we can wander around with headphones on, doing other things at the same time, if we wish. So a really flexible format.

Details & tickets here. NB. Discount code MMStocko21 will get you half price tickets!

Harpy Christmas

My sister-in-law, Lauren Scott, is a professional harpist. As with most other musicians, literally all her bookings were cancelled this year, due to covid restrictions. Christmas is usually her busiest time, with many live performances of Christmas carols & traditional tunes. So Lauren has decided to play live concerts on Zoom instead, for a modest fee.

Here is an example of Lauren playing Xmas tunes. I can’t tell you how relaxing & fun a Christmas singalong to the harp is, as usually my family enjoy this every year in person, but we've decided it's best not to meet up this year.

The harp has a remarkable calming effect I find, as you can tell from this short video of Lauren playing Xmas tunes;

Please forgive me for plugging a family thing, but I’m sure many of you would really enjoy Lauren's online concerts over the festive season, and it would also help out a self-employed musician who…

Unlock with Email

Unlock with Google

Already have an account?
Login here

Pensions

Generally I probably fit into the category of investors who Paul regards as too blase on the subject. That might be fair, although I would defend myself by saying that I am assessing the risks appropriate to my risk tolerance. I do accept Paul's basic premise however.

If anyone is interested in learning more though; I could suggest 600 (LON:SIXH) as a fantastic case study. They had a huge and growing pensions surplus on an accounting basis. On an actuarial basis the position had been steadily improving and had (if memory serves correctly) moved into surplus on this measure.

However, (because they were seriously strapped for cash, having already sold Grandma) the eventually sold out the scheme on a 'buyout valuation' that gave them fractions of pennies in the pound on the actual surplus.

Personally I am selectively bullish on companies with pension deficits (By way of full disclosure - I should admit that I have been 'wrong' on this point for over a decade!)

It is (in my view) a risk factor, some companies will be smothered by their legacy pension liabilities, others I believe are unduly beaten up on the subject.

I cannot immediately find my notes on 600 (LON:SIXH) , but if I come across them I will share.

andrewdb

30th Nov '20

+1
Something that is little understood. We all stand on the shoulders(?) of other standardised components.
I came across the story of someone who tried (plotspoiler- failed) to make a toaster from scratch.

Thomas Thwaites - Wikipedia

he also has a TED talk on it.

UK_Investor_8888

Elon Musk seems to talk-the-talk - know every part of his rocket business.

Personally, I know everything from crimping an ethernet cable to the SSL/TLS code at the other end several thousand KMs away, and some of every bit of code and software in between.

It would strike me dead with fear to trust this to people I don't know and haven't met, even more so knowing that they might be rivals, foreign operators, or potentially hostile parties in the future.

Anyway, good luck.

J*s*s C****t!!!

@Edward

Are those AWS servers specifically UK hosted, or EU hosted?

Is private data leaking out of The UK?

Can foreign Governments or other third parties get access to, or subpoena, Stockopedia users' Folios?

I think there maybe a few users who'd be most uncomfortable if they knew The US or French government or tax authorities could coerce data discovery, not to mention the feminist "family law" divorce lawyers. *

* I've been done, and don't intend to go around again.

Its unnerving knowing my data might now be in The US, Singapore, Germany and Japan simultaneously.

MiserableJacktPotato

Hahaha. Funniest thing I read all day.

I look forward to reading how you set up a several thousand km long proprietary data transfer solution. How did you do it, did you launch your own satellite or go the deep sea cable route?

Glad you are amused.

Try a TraceRoute Mr IGotPoesJacket .

It will explain to you all the different parties involved.

Gromley

Err, no it won't. But whatever lets you sleep at night.

I'm a business owner higher-risk Investor... I sleep with one eye open and screen by the bed. :-)

Paul Scott

Good questions! What's your view?

Thanks Mark. It's been an incredibly difficult year for almost everyone in the arts. So earning a few bob from doing online concerts, is a lifeline for professional musicians.

Best wishes, Paul.

Hi kenobi,

I could be wrong, but my impression is there's close to zero chance of Boohoo (LON:BOO) (I hold) wanting to operate physical stores. Why would they?? They're crushing physical stores by selling online. Just wait for the competitors to go bust, and buy the brand name & email customers list, for tuppence ha'penny. Then keep its design team, hugely expand the product range, put it all through the BooHoo marketing & logistics machine, and within say 2- 3 years, they have another highly successful online brand, making loads of profit.

As for Arcadia brands - I'd like to see BOO pick them up for a low price, esp TopShop/TopMan, but even those two (the best Arcadia brands) are old hat now. What are they worth? Probably not that much.

Mike Ashley's ego is probably the most likely buyer - prepared to pay a higher price to vanquish & totally humiliate his big rival Philip Green, above any commercial value of those brands.

I could be wrong of course, who knows what negotiations go on behind the scenes?

Lots more High Street competitors gone. Arcadia is very important to Debenhams, so that's likely to disappear too. High Streets & shopping centres become wastelands for fashion - BooHoo thrives.

It's so obvious the way things are going, and we can buy the big winner for 26 times 2021 earnings! It's crazy. Such a brilliant opportunity, to pick up BOO shares c.300p. A total no-brainer in my view.

Regards, Paul.

Harry Hindsight

Do we get free 'prime' with our subscription :)

Thanks Housemartin2! :-)

It has not been first class at all.

There have been issues for a month or two, including time lags on both systems and a few outages.

However Stockopedia has helped add to my personal wealth this year - considerably.

For that, Stocko, and Mr Scott and Co., gets my sincere gratitude and lattitude.

GrahamF

1st Dec '20

Don’t worry UK Investor, the Russians and Chinese have already hacked into your Folio, the other countries are a long way behind.

Don't say that. Not even joking.

I watch IP addresses and they are always running penetration attempts and sending weird web packets.

kenobi

Hi Paul, sure I agree that this is the conventional logic, however if clothes shops disappear, and particularly women like shopping in physical stores, it does make you wonder if at some point there'll be so little competition on the highstreet, and they'll have such scale, that going up against primark, and using the stores to physically showcase their products might be a good idea, and of course perhaps sell more premium items. Or there has been talk for years that as shops die out, you'll get places where you can view and try on product, perhaps show rooms if you like. and perhaps you try on and order from there, and it gets delivered to your home. There fore many less returns as you've seen and tried the stuff on, no need to order double what you want. I wonder if there's milage in this approach. Of course you don't have to buy arcadia to try this. Interesting your views on Mike Ashley.

As an aside it seems incredible to me that a billionaire with a 300 M yacht, should let his retail empire go bust because he couldn't secure a 30M loan. It seems to me that this is a convenient out for him, and that he's long since lost interest.

thanks for your thoughts,

Do you have a hardware firewall?

Wilbraham

Lauren Scott got a plug on Mark Forest's show around 17.22 this afternoon on Scala. Clearly she has a reputation!

Small Cap Value Report (Mon 30 Nov 2020) - DLAR, CAR, TUNG, MBH, TRMR, VCP

Mello Monday - today!

Harpy Christmas

Unlock the rest of this article with a 14 day trial

About the Author

Paul Scott

62 comments

Pensions

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...

Unlock the metrics for all these stocks and more...