Good morning!
Graham here.
Viral thoughts
As you've probably noticed, markets are looking much more perky now, compared to three weeks ago.
Versus the recent lows:
- The S&P 500 is up about 25%.
- The FTSE-100 is up about 21%.
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up about 24%.
(All indices measured in their own currencies.)
(Source:Stockopedia.)
Anecdotally, I am still seeing a lot of scepticism about these gains from commentators on Twitter and elsewhere.
As I said last week, the duration of "lockdown" measures is the most important unknown in the short-term, since many companies are closed for business until these lockdown measures are removed.
This is a truly unknowable variable - lockdown will only be ended when the combined weight of medical evidence and public opinion convinces national governments that it is feasible to make a change.
The data
I continue to check Worldometer for daily charts of coronavirus progression. The underlying data quality remains extremely poor, but these are the headline numbers which influence public opinion, so I think they're important.
Itay has seen a steady decline in numbers dying with the virus in recent weeks:
New cases are falling too:
In Italy, "bookshops, stationers and children's clothes shops" are open from today. Factories might open again on May 3rd (I expect that they will since I think the peak of the coronavirus has been seen for Italy).
Deaths in Spain are on the decline too:
And new cases in Spain have plunged:
In Spain, construction and factory workers went back to work yesterday.
Elsewhere:
- Austria is reopening schools and some shops.
- Denmark is reopening primary schools and creches.
- Czech Republic has reopened hardware stores and a range of others, and is rumoured to publish its exit strategy today.
The UK figures show deaths still rising, though not at an "exponential" rate:
Barring the occasional daily spike, new cases in the UK suggest that exponential growth is now very weak:
We can see this on a logarithmic chart:
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