TGISVP: Hot and Not, Mid-Year Review 2013

After resisting the lure of reporting quarterly performance at end-March, I’m now left mulling whether I should even report my semi-annual performance(s). Sigh, I probably will… Which is a little silly really, a public (or even private) review of any six month period/return is basically meaningless! Not that I’m complaining, I think you’ll agree the first half of the year treated us all pretty damn well. Of course, that cozy warm feeling may simply confirm we’re all addicted to ‘monetary heroin’ now.

Anyway, I noted down quarter-end prices, so why don’t I first do a (brief) post giving you a timely snapshot of current rankings for The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. [For reference, here are my first & last posts in the valuation phase of TGISVP this year].

I’ve updated all share prices, plus some underlying variables (primarily FX rates), as of June-28th. I’ve also reflected the recent 1 for 25 consolidation of Petroceltic International (PCI:LN) shares, and eliminated Continental Farmers Group (CFGP:LN) after its successful takeover in June. At this point, I haven’t otherwise updated/revised any individual company valuations, so if a particular stock grabs your attention please check for subsequent news-flow/results. Of course, you may totally disagree with my valuation(s) anyway – so I’ll provide a complete Excel file below, which you’re welcome to amend as you see fit.

By my reckoning, here’s the current Bottom Dozen Most Over-Valued Irish Shares:

Ugh, I threw up in my mouth a little just looking at this chart… But seriously, you might want to avoid these shit-pops this summer, no matter how crazy-hot it gets. Which may be the most pointless advice I’ve offered all year – there’s really no saving the muppets who buy this kind of rubbish!

OK, here’s some pleasant mouth-wash instead – my current Top Dozen Most Under-Valued Irish Shares:

I own Petroneft Resources (PTR:LN) & Donegal Creameries (DCP:ID).

NB: It goes without saying, I wouldn’t necessarily invest in some of the other shares listed – yes, they may offer significant upside potential, but that’s (often) accompanied by far greater risk (perhaps on a v binary basis). But I’m definitely still keen on a few of these stocks as Potential Buys. 

OK, for reference, here’s my complete/updated TGISVP valuation file:

TGISVP Hot & Not Mid-Year 2013     (xlsx file)

TGISVP Hot & Not Mid-Year 2013     (xls file)

Right, here’s to a great H2-2013 for all of us!