The Final Countdown

With just six trading weeks to go until the year end (remember, my trading year will close on 20^thDecember so that I can enjoy the holiday season), the 2013 virtual growth portfolio has not quite performed at the level I had anticipated. It is still comfortably in profit year to date with a current gain of around 32%. However, I had hoped to beat last year’s 80% gain and as things stand, that now looks a little optimistic. So, what are the chances of further gains over the next 6 weeks?

Fastnet Oil & Gas (LON:FAST)  – I don’t see any obvious prospects of significant gains before the end of the year and suspect this will end up as a loser over the full year.

Gemfields (LON:GEM)  – this was always going to be a pick for the second half of the year and so it has proved. There is one more auction at the end of November which could have a material impact and my sense is that GEM is likely to end the year as a marginal winner. I am thinking that 2014 could prove to be an excellent year for GEM though.

Iofina (LON:IOF)  – With the weighting factor I introduced this year, IOF has been a great performer, nearly doubling year to date. However, at one point in the year the shares touched 250p so the current share price doesn’t feel great. This said, there are several possible events that could drive the share price higher over the next six weeks; a production update, completion of up to three additional plant builds and further progress on the water permit application. I remain confident that further upside is possible here and expect IOF to finish the year as a significant winner.

Proteome Sciences (LON:PRM)  – There is no disguising the fact that this has been a terribly disappointing investment performance year-to-date, down around 30% at the time of writing. There remains some hope that things could improve before the year end via licensing deals but it is certainly more hope than expectation as things stand.

Software Radio Technology (LON:SRT)  – As anticipated, 2013 has been the year when the SRT story has got back on track and this has been reflected by a 40% gain year-to-date. There are pluses and minuses at this juncture. The full year forecasts are heavily weighted towards the second half (year ends 31^st March 2014). Any early indications that those full year forecasts will be met should see the shares rise further and prior to the year end such indications could come from contract or project wins or news of significant mandates. Based on current newsflow, I believe the shares are priced about right but there is certainly a chance of further newsflow pushing these shares higher over the next six weeks.

So in summary, I anticipate IOF and SRT rising further, GEM maybe creeping a little higher, FAST proving to be a disappointment and PRM frankly, in the lap of the gods and as unpredictable as ever.

The final countdown has begun and it should be an interesting six weeks.     

Disclosure – I own shares in IOF. I do NOT currently own shares in FAST, GEM, PRM or SRT.