The Week Ahead: 18th-22nd August 2025
Hello and welcome to this week’s edition of the Week Ahead!
It feels like we are in the dog days of summer, with consistently high temperatures and financial news flow becoming thinner in advance of the heavy flood of news that we expect to see in September.
There won't be any interest rate decision from the ECB until September 11th. The US Fed will be quiet until September 17th. And the Bank of England will make its next interest rate decision the day after that. Even central bankers need summer holidays.
So where does that leave us when it comes to the week ahead? We can look forward to a sprinkling of regular economic announcements, including CPI inflation and retail sales from a UK perspective.
Year-on-year inflation is expected to tick up slightly 3.7% from the 3.6% current rate. I recently discussed the inflation rate and how it interacts with the Bank of England’s rate decisions here (and got some amazing reader comments in response - well worth checking out!).
Company news might be rather light, at least in terms of scheduled results. But the US will have some activity, particularly for retailers - the likes of TJX (owner of TK Maxx), Home Depot, Lowe’s and Walmart are all reporting.
The business software group Intuit ($INTU) is reporting, too - they own Quickbooks, Mailchimp, and other valuable software assets.
So it won’t be completely quiet, and we’ll be here to investigate all the stories as they arise. But overall, it should be a period of relative calm. Enjoy it while it lasts - September might be manic! Ed has studied the frequency of company announcements by month, and September stands out. So this period of relative quiet is not going to last for long.
Economic Calendar
| Date | Time (BST) | Country | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
18 August | 10:00 AM | EU | Balance of Trade |
18 August | 03:00 PM | US | NAHB Housing Market Index |
19 August | 09:00 PM | EU | Current Account |
19 August | 01:30 PM | US | Housing Starts |
20 August | 07:00 AM | UK | Consumer Price Index |
20 August | 12:00 PM | US | MBA Mortgage Applications |
21 August | 01:30 PM | US | Initial Jobless Claims |
22 August | 07:00 AM | UK | Retail Sales |
Companies Reporting
| UK Trading Updates and AGMS | UK Financial Results | International Financial Results | |
|---|---|---|---|
Monday 18 August | Batm Advanced Communications (BVC) |
| |
Tuesday 19 August | Eurasia Mining (EUA) | Tribal (TRB) | Home Depot (HD) Medtronic (MDT) |
Wednesday 20 August | James Latham (LTHM) Celebrus Technologies (CLBS) NextEnergy Solar Fund (NESF) Oryx International Growth Fund (OIG) | Kenmare Resources (KMR) Standard Chartered (STAN) Lion Finance (BGEO) | TJX (TJX) Lowe’s (LOW) Analog Devices (ADI) |
Thursday 21 August | Cyanconnode (CYAN) | Walmart (WMT) Intuit (INTU) | |
Friday 22 August |
|
Disclaimer
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5 comments
Mobico half year results: Tuesday 19 August.
No, they are on 9th September. Check out the Mobico (LON:MCG) website.
Hi Graham, "The US Fed will be quiet until September 17th"
JP is giving a speech next week. This may move markets depending upon what he says but "any hint that he might resist a rate cut could spark a market sell-off—and another White House social media tirade" (credit to Ramin Nakisa of Pensioncraft and his Weekly Market Roundup email - always an entertaining and informative read)
https://www.reuters.com/world/...
AI tells me (so could be way off):
Expected Themes in Powell’s Speech
• Interest Rate Outlook: Markets are pricing in a potential quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting. This is driven by signs of a slowing job market and tariff-driven inflation, which together suggest weakening demand despite elevated prices.
• Tariffs and Inflation: Recent data show that tariffs are contributing to hotter CPI and PPI readings, complicating the Fed’s inflation fight. Powell is expected to address how these supply-side pressures differ from demand-driven inflation and whether they warrant a policy shift.
• Policy Framework Review: Powell will also discuss the Fed’s broader policy framework, likely touching on how it balances inflation control with employment goals amid external shocks like tariffs.
• Political Pressure: President Trump is reportedly pushing for lower rates and considering replacing Powell when his term ends in May 2026. This adds a layer of political tension to the Fed’s decision-making environment.
Tariffs and Inflation: Recent data show that tariffs are contributing to hotter CPI and PPI readings, complicating the Fed’s inflation fight. Powell is expected to address how these supply-side pressures differ from demand-driven inflation and whether they warrant a policy shift.
I simply dont understand trump - does he want lower interest rates or not ? - i understand high tariffs might be decent revenue they collect that can be passed on as tax savings.
But i cant think of anything thats going to negatively impact inflation and stop rates coming down than more than tariffs. Ok thats perhaps "one off hit" - but surely the next 12 moths is pretty important for trump - if its clear tariffs are stoking inflation i would expect Powell would happily throw Trump under the bus.
whether that should matter to us or not i know that - but i suspect if will filter back across the pond in some manner. No doubt google/facebook and Maccy D's will make uk consumers bear the cost of us traiffs rather than their us customers if they have a choice :)
Add Costain (LON:COST) Interims Wed. 20th with IMC on 21st.