The Week Ahead (3 – 7 Aug): US Jobs, UK House Prices, US Pharma, 4imprint, S4 Capital

The major tech company reporting this week received a mixed reception. While Microsoft investors were reassured by the strong financial results and strategic capital expenditure restraint, Meta fell roughly 8% post-earnings as massive multi-billion-dollar future AI lease and compute obligations spooked traders.

This has led to a volatile week for US investors. However, as has usually been the case recently, the dip has been bought, and the S&P 500 has returned to where it started the week:

[Source: IG]

The lack of tech exposure helped the FTSE 100, which made new highs this week:

Here's what we can look forward to next week:

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Economic Calendar

Monday 3 Aug
07:00	Germany	Retail Sales
15:00	United States	PMI Manufacturing
Tuesday 4 Aug
15:00	United States	Balance of Trade Factory Orders
Wednesday 5 Aug
15:00	United States	ISM Services PMI
15:30	United States	Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday 6 Aug
10:00	Euro Area	Retail Sales
13:30	United States	Continuing Claims Initial Jobless Claims
Friday 7 Aug
07:00	Germany	Balance of Trade Industrial Production
07:00	UK	Halifax/Lloyds House Price Index
13:30	United States	Non-Farm Payrolls Unemployment Rate

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US Employment

A quiet week for economic news, with only employment figures of note Stateside. We get new claims data on Thursday before non-farm payrolls and the official unemployment rate on Friday.

The data is expected to show modest stabilisation in hiring, with the key market-moving metric, non-farm payrolls, expected to rebound to around 120k jobs, recovering from June's downside surprise of just 57k.

[All charts in this section: Trading Economics]

The data will likely dictate when the Fed implements the next highly anticipated interest rate increase.

If the NFP number comes in well above the expected 120k level, then the Fed may move to raise rates sooner rather than later. This may cause a sell-off in equities and bonds, with the dollar strengthening against other major currencies. Conversely, a second unexpectedly low figure will see the dollar weaken, and the Fed delay its hike. Equities may not rebound in this scenario as the risk of a recession may start to be priced in, instead. Probably only an inline print will be bullish for equity markets.

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UK HPI

In the UK, Friday brings us the Halifax House Price Index, now rebranded as Lloyds. There is no doubt that UK house prices have been weak, with the latest annual figure for this index coming in at just 0.6% year-on-year, significantly below inflation. Forecasts are for this to recover to 2-3% by the end of the year. However, the indications are perhaps not promising on that front, as prices have come in below consensus since March:

With major housebuilder Taylor Wimpey this week reporting that underlying new house sale prices are 2% down on the year, and build cost inflation running at 3-4%, even if economists are right with their medium-term forecasts, the sector outlook is challenging.

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Companies Reporting

Date	UK Trading Updates & AGMS	UK Financial Results	International Financial Results
Monday 3 Aug		Clarkson (LON:CKN) (Interims) FDM (Holdings) (LON:FDM) (Interims) Senior (LON:SNR) (Interims)	Cadence Design Systems (NSQ:CDNS) Marriott International (NSQ:MAR) Nucor (NYQ:NUE) Palantir Technologies (NSQ:PLTR) Snap (NYQ:SNAP)
Tuesday 4 Aug	Symphony Environmental Technologies (LON:SYM) (AGM)	BP (LON:BP.). (Interims) Capita (LON:CPI) (Interims) Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (LON:CCEP) (Interims) ConvaTec (LON:CTEC) (Interims) Dominos Pizza (LON:DOM) (Interims) Filtronic (LON:FTC) (Finals) Fresnillo (LON:FRES) (Interims) Georgia Capital (LON:CGEO) (Interims) HSBC Holdings (LON:HSBA) (Interims) Keller (LON:KLR) (Interims) Rotork (LON:ROR) (Interims) Sabre Insurance (LON:SBRE) (Interims) SIG (LON:SHI) (Interims) Smith & Nephew (LON:SN.) (Interims) Strix (LON:KETL) (Finals) Synthomer (LON:SYNT) (Interims) Travis Perkins (LON:TPK) (Interims) XP Power (LON:XPP) (Interims)	Advanced Micro Devices (NSQ:AMD) Amgen (NSQ:AMGN) Arista Networks (NYQ:ANET) Ball (NYQ:BALL) Booking Holdings (NSQ:BKNG) Caterpillar (NYQ:CAT) Gilead Sciences, (NSQ:GILD) Mcdonalds (NYQ:MCD) Merck & Co (NYQ:MRK) Okeanis Eco Tankers (OSL:OET) (Norway) Pfizer (NYQ:PFE) Pinterest (NYQ:PINS)
Wednesday 5 Aug	Next (LON:NXT) (TS)	4imprint (LON:FOUR) (Interims) Coca-Cola HBC AG (LON:CCH) (Interims) Glencore (LON:GLEN) (Interims) Gran Tierra Energy (LON:GTE) (Interims) Ibstock (LON:IBST) (Interims) Legal & General (LON:LGEN) (Interims) S4 Capital (LON:SFOR) (Interims) Shawbrook (LON:SHAW) (Interims) Zotefoams (LON:ZTF) (Interims)	Eli Lilly and Co (NYQ:LLY) Walt Disney Co (NYQ:DIS) eBay (NSQ:EBAY) Infineon Technologies AG (ETR:IFX) (Germany) Novo Nordisk A/S (CPH:NOVO B) (Denmark) Shopify (NSQ:SHOP) Stainless Tankers ASA (OSL:STST) (Norway) Uber Technologies (NYQ:UBER)
Thursday 6 Aug	Marks Electrical (LON:MRK) (AGM) Sintana Energy (LON:SEI) (AGM)	Admiral (LON:ADM) (Interims) Burford Capital (LON:BUR) (Interims) Diageo (LON:DGE) (Finals) Harbour Energy (LON:HBR) (Interims) Hikma Pharmaceuticals (LON:HIK) (Interims) Mears (LON:MER) (Interims) Metlen Energy & Metals (LON:MTLN) (Interims) Morgan Advanced Materials (LON:MGAM) (Interims) Osb (LON:OSB) (Interims) Michael Page (LON:PAGE) (Interims) Persimmon (LON:PSN) (Interims) PZ Cussons (LON:PZC) (Finals) Quilter (LON:QLT) (Interims) Serco (LON:SRP) (Interims) TBC Bank (LON:TBCG) (Interims) TP Icap (LON:TCAP) (Interims) Tritax Big Box REIT (LON:BBOX) (Interims) VAALCO Energy (LON:EGY) (Interims) Wheaton Precious Metals (LON:WPM) (Interims) Wizz Air Holdings (LON:WIZZ) (Q1) WPP (LON:WPP) (Interims)	Airbnb (NSQ:ABNB) DraftKings (NSQ:DKNG) Deutsche Telekom AG (ETR:DTE) (Germany) LYFT (NSQ:LYFT) Roku (NSQ:ROKU) Warner Bros Discovery (NSQ:WBD) Advanced Drainage Systems (NYQ:WMS)
Friday 7 Aug			Take-Two Interactive Software (NSQ:TTWO) Under Armour (NYQ:UA) Wendys Co (NSQ:WEN)

AGM season appears to have finally calmed down, but UK reporting is in full swing with many companies reporting Interims next week. As usual, let us know if you think we've missed anything of note.

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US Healthcare

On Tuesday morning, the major US Pharma companies Pfizer (NYQ:PFE), Merck & Co (NYQ:MRK) , and Amgen (NSQ:AMGN)  all report. Novo Nordisk A/S (CPH:NOVO B)  follows these on Wednesday, which has a dull listing in the US as well as its native Denmark.

This earnings cycle will shine a spotlight on the overarching macro themes reshaping the pharmaceutical sector: the structural shift from oncology to metabolic inhibitors, looming patent cliffs, cost realignments, and M&A.

GLP-1 therapies have displaced oncology as the top driver of global pharmaceutical pipeline value for the first time in 16 years, with a shift from injections to oral remedies key. Investors are concerned about manufacturing supply capacity as companies race to capture a market projected to hit $150 billion by 2035. Elsewhere, many blockbuster drugs are approaching patent cliffs, and the pharma giants are looking to reformulate them to extend their lifetimes. The pandemic era generated windfall profits for many healthcare companies, but these have now abated, leading companies to slim down by shedding non-core assets. While internal development may have slowed, M&A is accelerating, with corporate strategies increasingly relying on buying clinical-stage biotech firms to add new treatments.

These are the things to look out for:

Pfizer (NYQ:PFE)

• Core Portfolio: Investors want to ensure high-volume demand for Eliquis continues to offset pricing pressure and initial generic erosion in non-US territories. Analysts are expecting $1.4bn of sales for the Prevnar vaccine. Performance must show that international growth is effectively balancing out lower domestic demand in the US.
• Acquired oncology: The reported progress in integrating Seagen will be key, measured by specific oncology brand acceleration, including Padcev and Lorbrena. Analysts will also watch for management commentary regarding the FDA's recent priority review for Talzenna combined with Xtandi in metastatic prostate cancer.
• Speciality Care: This requires strong growth from newer treatments. US and international Cibinqo sales should demonstrate growth rates of 20%+ or more. Meanwhile, high conversion and prescription numbers for Vyndaqel remain vital to maintaining immediate operating margins here.

Merck & Co (NYQ:MRK) 

• Core Portfolio: Keytruda, an immunotherapy medication used to treat many types of cancer by helping the body's own immune system find and fight cancer cells, has global sales expectations of $8bn for the single quarter. This expansion is driven by its use in early-stage cancer indications. With this product making up around half of Merck's total worldwide revenue, performance here will dwarf that of other therapies.
• New products: The newly launched pulmonary arterial hypertension treatment Winrevair has a consensus sales target of $214 million. Early prescription numbers from Japan and Europe will be key indicators as to whether this can be achieved.

• Acquisition costs: Due to the Terns buyout, EPS will reflect a massive one-time charge of $5.8 billion (approximately $2.35 per share). While the GAAP EPS loss that this will cause is expected, seeing the exact figures may spook the market.

Amgen (NSQ:AMGN) 

• Core Portfolio: High-volume trends for the cholesterol treatment Repatha must remain steady to counter general net price erosion across international healthcare markets. Oncological sales performance for Blincyto needs to align with broader double-digit growth expectations to offset slower growth in other business segments.
• Competitive Pressure: The market will look for how effectively Amgen is retaining its market share against newer biosimilar copycats in the anti-inflammatory space. Plus, revenue declines for ageing therapies like Enbrel must at least match forecasts.

Novo Nordisk A/S (CPH:NOVO B) 

• Core Portfolio: Oral Wegovy take-up will be key. Investors will be looking at prescription volumes for oral Wegovy to confirm that it is drawing in new patients without cannibalising injectable therapies.
• Pipeline: The market wants clear timelines for the regulatory filing for CagriSema, which serves as a major future growth asset.

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4imprint (LON:FOUR)

US tariff impacts led to a sharp sell-off in this well-regarded promotional products supplier last year:

The share price has since recovered somewhat. However, this is largely sentiment-related, as this optimism has not been reflected in an improving broker consensus:

While the company maintains its high-quality reputation, at 18x forward earnings, it isn't exactly cheap:

The upcoming interims may be key to determining if a recovery is underway or the market has got ahead of itself. These are the things to look out for:

• Tariff Impacts: Early 2026 saw newly introduced import tariffs shake up product costs across the promo merchandise sector. 4imprint described the supplier price hikes through April as "manageable," but they will compress gross margins relative to 2025. Recently, the US has been issuing tariff refunds, and investors will be looking for this to have a positive impact.
• Customer retention: Total new order volumes remain weak due to broader macroeconomic uncertainty. However, existing customer retention trends have stabilised, helping to offset the top-line volume drop. Investors will want this trend to continue.
• Flexible marketing: The company says it uses a dynamic marketing mix to preserve cash and defend operating metrics. Investors will want to see signs that this restraint has enabled profits to be maintained, even as revenue declines.

S4 Capital (LON:SFOR)

Staying with the 4 theme, Sir Martin Sorrell's marketing business reports its interims on Wednesday. The share price has rallied this year, doubling off lows:

Broker upgrades have certainly played their part, but these are relatively minor compared to the prior history of downgrades:

Investors often pay more attention to direction than absolute figures, and continued Momentum may be a key factor in the market's response to the upcoming numbers.

Despite the rise, the shares still look cheap on forward measures:

However, the company is pretty aggressive with their adjustments (they are marketers after all!) and the debt they have on the balance sheet makes them risky:

On the financials, investors will need to pay as much attention to the adjustments and cash flow as to the headline number the company chooses to provide.

Other things to watch are:

• Tech exposure: 82% of its net revenue from the Americas, making it highly vulnerable to budgets set by major US tech companies. Investors will want signs that spending from tech giants has stabilised after a recent squeeze.
• AI Monetisation: The company has frequently promoted its proprietary artificial intelligence capabilities to win new business in the automotive and financial sectors. This update must show concrete evidence that AI services are generating profitable revenue rather than just acting as a customer-retention tool.