The Week Ahead (5-9 Jan) - Christmas updates looming
I hope you all had a fantastic break!
Next week, the UK market will be treated to trading updates from major retailers after the Christmas trading period.
We’ll have updates from: Next (LON:NXT) (I hold), Tesco (LON:TSCO), J Sainsbury (LON:SBRY), Greggs (LON:GRG) and perhaps others that have escaped me.
Christmas week retail footfall: Retail Times have been studying footfall data from MRI software. For Christmas week as a whole, they say:
…when viewed year on year, footfall was +3.9% higher across all UK retail destinations, suggesting that the later placement of Christmas in the week provided shoppers with additional time to complete last-minute festive purchases.
Post-Christmas sales: this was positive, too. Drapers reports that total UK retail footfall rose 1.6% year-on-year, for Saturday 28th December. High Streets and retail parks were both up by over 2%, while shopping centres had a slight decline:
MRI said the positive performance over 27 and 28 December offers an encouraging signal for retailers heading into the final days of the festive period, underlining the growing role of leisure-led footfall and the importance of destination mix in driving post-Christmas trading.
It's an exciting time for retailers and for shareholders in retail stocks - let's keep our fingers crossed that this promising footfall data translates into good news for all concerned.
It might also be worth mentioning that the UK consumer confidence index by GfK rose in December (it's still negative, but less negative than before):
Chart: tradingeconomics.com
Minus 17 is as strong as this consumer confidence index got in 2025.
It did reach minus 13 in 2024, but only temporarily:
While there is little doubt that the UK consumer is challenged, this objective measure tells us that the consumer is not currently more challenged than it was for most of 2024, and it's probably much healthier than it was 2023.
How this will play out for particular companies depends naturally on their positioning: is a challenged consumer more or less likely to shop at Tesco (LON:TSCO), for example? Are there more switchers from M&S to Tesco, or from Tesco to Lidl?
For what it's worth, Lidl GB has reported a 10% rise in Christmas sales. Their customer numbers rose 8%. This suggests quite a lot of downward switching, i.e. good news for retailers who are perceived to offer value, and bad news for premium retailers?
Either way, these post-Christmas updates should provide the most interesting theme for the week ahead.
Economic Calendar
| Date | Time (GMT) | Country | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
5 January | 09:30 | UK | Mortgage Lending |
5 January | 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
7 January | 10:00 | EU | Inflation Rate |
7 January | 12:00 | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate |
7 January | 15:00 | US | ISM Services |
7 January | 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings |
8 January | 07:00 | UK | Halifax House Price Index |
8 January | 10:00 | EU | Unemployment Rate |
8 January | 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade |
8 January | 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims |
9 January | 13:30 | US | Unemployment Rate |
9 January | 13:30 | US | Housing Starts |
9 January | 13:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls |
Companies Reporting
| Date | UK Trading Updates and AGMS | UK Financial Results | International Financial Results |
|---|---|---|---|
Monday 5 January | None scheduled. | None scheduled. | None of significance scheduled. |
Tuesday 6 January | Next (LON:NXT) | None scheduled. | None of significance scheduled. |
Wednesday 7 January | None scheduled. | None scheduled. | None of significance scheduled. |
Thursday 8 January | Applied Nutrition (LON:APN) (AGM) Greggs (LON:GRG) Tesco (LON:TSCO) Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) | None scheduled. | Fast Retailing Co (TYO:9983) |
Friday 9 January | Unite (LON:UTG) Alfa Financial Software Holdings (LON:ALFA) J Sainsbury (LON:SBRY) | None scheduled. | None of significance scheduled. |
Disclaimer
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4 comments
Thanks Graham however you have missed Marks and Spencer (LON:MKS) who are due to release their Christmas trading update on the 8th January. Coupled with Next (LON:NXT) tomorrow should give us a good snapshot of how mid market clothing retailers have performed over the Christmas trading period.
thanks, I've updated the table to reflect that and also another mistake that crept in - I can't trust my sources apparently!!
Thanks for this weekly post again Graham. Sometimes I find one of my holdings reporting in the next week that I didn't know about. I'm in 2 minds about what to do with my Tesco (LON:TSCO) holding. It's come off it's high in early November and now trades on 14 times earnings which many would see as a bit rich for a supermarket (even one with a clear lead over all of it's competitors in the UK).
Odd RNS released on Friday re: trading on OTC Markets which would seem to make it easier for US investors to trade in the shares. I'm not sure this helps me make up my mind on whether to sell before Thursday.
https://tinyurl.com/5v2xxjwx
take a look on tuesday to see what sainsburys says, if in doubt sell half is my rule before results. sbry statement is the 9th occording to its website and stock report.