TRAKM8 share price has gone up over 100% in the last three months. Are you buying / selling / holding and why? I am holding due to very strong momentum, forecast EPS growth to end DEC 2015 of 107% and a stream of good news from the company.
I am a keen & experienced investor. I love my spread sheets, and like to think that I know what I am doing. I wouldn't be offended to be described as a bit geeky. Mostly I do well, but I always strive to do better. Married male. Born 1957 England. Good career in industry for 35 years. Been successfully investing for about 30 years. I chose to retire from salaried employment at age 57 to look after my investments. I consider myself to be quite analytical / logical / mathematical, but also take into account how the world is likely to change & how people behave. I always follow my processes before taking action. more »
I do think £TRAM is a great company, but I top sliced 20% of my holding at lunchtime because it had become over 10% of my portfolio. Happy to hold the rest to see what happens. Ian
I missed out so Im waiting for it to fall back before buying.
Interestingly the Stockrankings have never been that good for Trakm8 Holdings (LON:TRAK), usually in the 40/50s.
I think like a lot of GARP stocks the actual results always seem to lag the news flow/rumour and accelerating share price. Consequently, while M is high V and often Q fail to keep up such that Stock Rank which is a composite of the three (and Growth ranking too) tends to lag as well. As the story plays out the company hopefully matures into a higher SR but by that stage you may have missed out on much of the share price appreciation. Worth watching the trend in SR for a target GARP stock as you may observe an improving relative position even if the absolute SR seems mediocre. I think the current SR of 55 is about as good as it has been for Trakm8 Holdings (LON:TRAK).
Good luck.
Gus.
I don't think that the low(er) Q is driven by the growth, The two items reducing the Q score are the Benish M-Score for earnings manipulation and a F-score of 6, which seems low forf a small and rapidly expanding business. Compare for example with Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR), Q 94, F-score 8 and no flag for possible earnings manipulation.
Whilst I have no idea about Trakm8s future performance, if we are to beleive Robert Novy-Marx, then momentum is in part driven by fundamental momentum (summary here http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2015/03/11/daily-ac...), then for an expensive stock I would be keen on strong underlying fundamental momentum.
I am willing to hold Tracsis (LON:TRCS) and Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR), but not Trakm8 Holdings (LON:TRAK). On verra.
Thanks Underscored.
I agree that growth per se doesn't hit Q. My observation is more that analytics based on historic data doesn't always keep pace with market sentiment based on a subjective view of future prospects for a stock. Trakm8 Holdings (LON:TRAK) certainly seems to be ramping up on hopes for exponential sales of its innovative technology. Almost behaving like a Biopharma stock.
Interesting views on the other stocks. I am equally bullish on Tracsis (LON:TRCS) but slightly wary of Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR), possibly due to being TT and not being able to give an informed opinion on their contribution to a good G&T! I think the Tracsis (LON:TRCS) growth story based on geographic expansion of proven, patented products is the most plausible of the three. Time will tell.
Gus.
Thanks for the comments. Yes I agree some shares SR is behind the news, I have noticed this on several, so Stockopedia is rather backward looking and as momentum is one of its key components then often the share price has risen quite a lot before the SR reaches 90. One I hold is Inland Homes (LON:INL), the price had not moved for about 6 months, the SR was about 45, when the 2015 results came out the SR went up to 94 but the share price went down, why because the news was already in the share price and next year is not looking so good. I do hold Tracsis (LON:TRCS) as well. Fevertree Drinks (LON:FEVR), I missed that one so will leave for now, but I can see them getting taken over by one of the bigger boys.
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Something odd is going on in Trakm8 Holdings (LON:TRAK) . An oversubscribed placing is announced, but it has not yet completed and the share price has collapsed well below the placing price.
Yes something is going on, shares fell another 10% today and then bounced back. As I had been watching for a while I picked some up at 280p. Maybe I should put a stop loss on?
Herbie
I don't know. If the acquisition falls through and the placing isn't needed, then only the costs will be lost, so I'd expect the share price to return to near pre acquisition levels.
It's a puzzle. Maybe one of us should phone the FD and ask what's going on.
I am a holder and have been trying to figure out what has been going on. The placing was at 333p and I calculate that the dilution due to the new shares is 5.8%. I'm not really sure how the calculation should be done, but a 5.8% reduction on 333p gives 313p. So does this mean that the expected price after the placing should be 313p, all other things being equal? Could someone more familiar with such placings please advise? The current share price is 302.5p after a lot of gyrations.
Not sure but I would have thought it should be higher than 302.5p Placement was at a discount to the then current price which was around 360p I believe. Shares often go up after successful placements. So I would expect usually it to be above the placement price.
Hi Warranstar - not sure the recent share price movement and the placement are necessarily reconcilable.
When the placement was announced on December 21st, the Trakm8 Holdings (LON:TRAK) share price was about 360p and the placement was proposed at 333p (c.7.5% discount). As you say, the dilution was roughly 5.8% (1,801,802 new shares issued against then shares outstanding of 30,233,262). This is roughly equivalent to a rights issue of c. 1 new:18 old.
On this basis, the fully diluted share price would be (((1 x 333) + (18 x 360))/19) or 358.6p, i.e. virtually the same as the old price as there are only a small number of new shares and they were placed at a very small discount. The picture is slightly clouded by the fact that the company will also issue 184,441 shares to the management of the acquired company as part of the consideration but I think we can ignore these for now as I don't think the deal has completed yet.
As flagged above, the Trakm8 Holdings (LON:TRAK) share price has fallen significantly since December 21 and was especially erratic today with a trading range of 273p to 310p which is pretty wide even allowing for the 5.0% bid:ask broker spread. Since the announcement of the placement, the fall from 360p to 273p represents about 24% (although at today's 302p close it is more like 16%). However, I don't think this is down to a dilution effect from the placement. It may simply be profit taking by shareholders that have had a good run over the past 12 months in tandem with general market fall over past three weeks; an adverse reaction to the acquisition or some other factor that we're not aware of - hopefully not a Globo-esque iceberg that has just been run into and not yet made public.
Certainly worth a call/e-mail to the company to see what their take is on matters.
Gus.
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Rider: Just re-read the December 21st RNS. Although it talks of the shares being placed (indeed oversubscribed), it is not clear whether this has actually taken place yet. It was due to complete between 31/12 and 29/01 but I would have expected a further RNS confirming the fact (and there isn't one). Confusion is slightly compounded by the fact that Stocko shows the current shares in issue of 33,992,307 as of today but the figure on December 2nd, 2015 was 30,019,821 suggesting that there has been an increase in the number of shares in issue of about the right amount. Either way, the message is still the same; the amount of dilution resulting from the placement is substantially smaller than the underlying share price movement over the last three weeks so there must be something additional causing this. The plot thickens ....
Poster on advfn says that he's spoken to Finncap (Trakm8's NOMAD) who say placing was completed in Dec and that they felt that RNS was unnecessary!
Really, well I think it has caused some confusion with investors and maybe one reason why the share price has fallen so much. If they did a RNS I'm sure the share price would shoot up.
Trakm8 is incredibly volatile. Recently it is either going up like a rocket or falling like a stone!
Please briefly state why you believe that this share is so volatile at the moment.
You have not heard what has been going on?
Its because Tom Winnifrith has been attacking it and there has been a bear raid. Paul has responded to this, so thats why its up and down. Paul also did an interview yesterday with Trakm8 CEO. Could be a good one to buy on falls although it is a bit risky.
It's seems to me manic panic has now taken over for a lot of shareholders gained from the downwards momentum after Tom's attack. Forward P/E has now dropped to 14.1, looks totally insane compared with quartix which is trading at a forward P/E of 25.9 today. For your info, I am long in TRAK.
