What is your #1 share pick for 2022?

5th Jan '22 by Edward Croft

83 comments 7842 reads

Given we are not running the Stockopedia Challenge I thought it would be good to start a thread for everyone seeking good ideas for January.

Here are some ground rules for this thread.

For submissions:

Submit your pick as a comment - about one share - no more than one - just one. And only one share each please.
You must OWN the share. If you do not own it, please don't post it.
Add the NAME and TICKER symbol of the stock in question.
Add a LINK to the stockreport - (use the £TICKER format with spaces on either side to autolink)
Add a very brief PITCH about the share. A few lines may suffice - a link to further reading is always helpful - and any expectations you have.

For responders:

Reply to each share pick using the "Reply" button - so that they are nested contextually under the pick in question.
Vote up if you agree that it's a good pick. Don't vote up because you like the commenter.

It would be great to maintain information density, so please stick to the ground rules above so that the thread is useful for readers. There are NO PRIZES.

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Rusty2

15th Jan '22

Why?

Gilgamesh_Investor

Vietnam Holding (LON:VNH)

I am going for a speculative growth fund on the backdrop of increased inflation in the UK and USA and increased economic activity and prosperity within Vietnam.

First let me present some statistics

GDP

-Vietnam: 2010: £115.9B - 2020: 271.15B (135%)

-Thailand: 2010: £341B - 2020: £500B (46%)

-Cambodia: 2010: 11.24B - 2020: £25.8B (129%)

National Poverty headcount ratio:

-Vietnam: 2010: 20.7% - 2018: 6.7% (67% decrease)

-Thailand: 2010: 16.4% - 2019 6.2% (62% decrease)

-Bangledesh: 2010: 31.5% - 2016: 24.3% (22% decease) - Difficult to find reliable recent statistics.

Population:

-Vietnam: 2020: 97.3M (increase of 10.69% for 10 years)

-Thailand: 2020: 69.7M (increase of 3.8% for 10 years)

-Cambodia: 2020: 16M (increase of 14.7% over 10 years)

So in summary Vietnam has a larger workforce by a considerable margin, their economy is rapidly increasing and poverty is reducing… They also benefit from cheaper labour workforce than more economically developed Asian regions. The Hanoi stock exchange has increase by over 100% in the last year; throughout the middle of a pandemic…I would argue that their closet competitors may actually be Bangladesh or Malaysia within this regard, however, Malaysia have only seen an increase of 32% of GDP in the last 10 years (2020: £337B) and Bangladesh is arguably not as westernised as it south-east asian counterparts, with neighbouring country Myanmar at civil unrest.

Vietnam are boarded with China. This has crated some recent issues, as Vietnam are very dependent on trade with China. However, over the last few years, Vietnam have signed up to CPTPP and EVFTA to attempt to reduce their reliance on Chinese trade. This hasn’t materialised as of yet, but looks positive for Vietnams future trade.

Furthermore, Economic goods exported from Vietnam to USA increase 19.8% between 2019-2020, increasing the trade deficit to 25% between the two nations.

Now let me focus on the investment case for Vietnam Holding (LON:VNH) - It is a closed-end investment company with the primary investment objective of achieving long-term capital appreciation by investing in a diversified portfolio within Vietnam. The funds NAV increased by around 60% a share in 2021, yet the fund is still trading at a discount of around 8.5% to its NAV.

I am currently 38% up on my holding and I think 2022 and beyond will present Vietnam Holding (LON:VNH) with strong growth as the Vietnamese economy continues its rate of growth and expansion - somewhat similar to the economic boom that China has experienced since the 80s.

Thanks,

Both look good. I opted for Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) based on recent downtrend in their price. My first target is 900p and second is 1,300p.

Snowbum

Not sure picking a fund or IT is in the spirit of the challenge…

Sorry, Forbsy. I wasn’t aware as others have present funds - In which case, I will present £SLP. It is cash generative , and it has 1/3 of MCAP as liquid cash in the bank; it will inevitably go up from this level but it’s arguably a hedge on PGMs, especially the price of Rhodium.

Recent studies are trying to find new methods to better utilise Rhodium, as many are aware 80% of the demand is used in vehicles (catalytic converters and headlight deflectors) some scientific studies researching its potent usage as a catalyst to convert solar energy into hydrogen.

So on one side, if rhodium begins to rise, it is worthwhile tracking, on the other, it may mean that you catalytic convertor on your car isn’t safe. Rhodium is already up from $12,500 an oz in September to $17,000 oz as we speak: it unsustainably peaked at $28,000 an oz in May 2020. Some analysts and economists are speculating that it could reach $22,000 an oz by the end of 2022 1st quarter and $27,000 an oz by the end of the year.

Around 50% of PGM tailing recoveries for Sylvania Platinum (LON:SLP) is Rhodium; so if it drives the basket price up the company will ultimately turnover more profit.

It is a profitable company nonetheless, but if PGM basket prices increase I can see this treating given its cash balance and cash generative position.

Skepsis

16th Jan '22

RMM - Rambler Mining - Rambler Metals And Mining (LON:RMM)

Researching those Junior Mining and exploration stocks with a Market Cap < £60m is where I expect to find the potential junior resource multi bagger. Narrowing the 60 or so companies to those that are actually producing then you end up with a handful - approx 6 - that have revenue (ignoring some with £100k income etc). Focusing on the metal of choice for me - Copper - then this becomes Rambler Metals - whose focus is in Canada.

The company is in a turnaround situation and has made significant progress in the last 12 months .

The macro outlook for Copper is great. The company also has monetised gold credits and silver exists as well - I expect silver to be a useful credit at some point.

The resource is expanding, and higher grades are coming into play. There are also other strategic expansion possibilities, and another Project in the portfolio called Little Deer that has had 'interest'.

The resource from the Ming Mine stands on its own, and I expect Mid Tier status in the near future.

Appreciate the new offering but if I’m being pedantic I see no other funds proposed by others; holding companies yes, and their funds mentioned to add context…. Also, SLP has already been proposed by slopsjon on 8th Jan.

Sorry to be a pain, maybe you have another pick?

AnonymousUser1782684

(LON:STX) The story is good but when are they going to start making a profit?

No pain no gain, Forbsy.

Liontrust Asset Management (LON:LIO) and Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) are both funds in my eyes?

Final submission will therefore be Jubilee Metals (LON:JLP)

-Another play on PGMs but also with copper

-Low operating costs and high margins

-Good cash generation

-Copper expansion plans in Zambia which are being funded by internal cashflows.

-Experienced management team.

My major concern is the geopolitical risk associated with Zambia and South Africa and how this landscape should change if miners start producing more money but this risk will always be associated with miners in such countries. Also, there are 111M warrants in use with an exercise price between 3.4p - 6.1p; these expire between March 2022 - June 2023.

Hope this very brief summary will suffice
GI

JammyC

Hi all,

My pick is £XLM. Xlmedia (LON:XLM) is a performance marketer, monetomising lead generation for sports betting, casino, poker, bingo, VPN and personal finance.

The company has had many highly desirable metrics, until 2018, but fell out of favour due to numerous poor management decisions, poor content ensuring over-reliance on Google page rankings, and imo compounded by being Isralli and being listed on AIM.

Despite its history I think the company is at an inflection point and that it will once again reach, if not suppass, previous profits. The previous owner manager, who retains a 3% shareholding, has brought in an a more professional and commercially focused CEO who's overseen the development of a greater spread of verticals but also a focus on media brands with more engaging content that should help reduce reliance upon Googles algorithm. XLM have since registered and moved most of the operations to the UK.

The reason why I think this year is the year to be on board, in main, is due to gambling becoming legal in many states in the US. In the last few years their assets have been improved both organically and though 3 acquisitions so that they now are ready to profit from this significant opportunity.

Online operators like 888, Draftkings and Betfair are increasing marketing spend to get get a foothold and take first mover advantage. This is of course an ideal set-up for a company that provides marketing services to the industry. New York opened up on 8th Jan making it only the 7th state to do so, and with many more states likely also to legalise gambling inorder to raise tax revenue, the market is likely to be vast and much greater than XLM's historic terrotories.

Currently trading on a forecast PER of only 9 and a PEG of 0.1 as per the stock report.

doug2500

They're asset managers not funds, they run funds which is not the same as being a fund.

Thanks for confirmation, Doug2500 :)

grb

17th Jan '22

I hold Atalaya Mining (LON:ATYM) too and I think it should be a solid performer - I reckon demand for copper and other raw materials needed for low carbon transition is unlikely to go down this year. But to win a competition, you need a holding with the possibility of a complete transformation in value, even though the risk will be significant. Sticking with Spain, that could happen to Berkeley Energia (LON:BKY) if they manage to overturn the permit decisions against their Uranium mine. I gave up on that one at a loss several years ago, though. My pick for this year would be Kefi Gold And Copper (LON:KEFI) - if they can actually get their gold mining project in Ethiopia financed and started that could cause some real re-rating. They've been a serial disappointer for many years, and the declining political stability hasn't helped at all. Could this be the year that that changes? Not a top ten holding for me - although a "value transformation" might make it one!

Threepeat

£POLR An excellent asset manager. One metric you may wish to look at especially comparing with other asset managers is AUM divided by Mkt Cap. This gives a sense of scale

hugoc

18th Jan '22

No reason two, three or four people cannot select the same stock so long as they are shareholders. Indeed breadth of support is a positive indicator.

abtan

Hi Ed

Thanks for starting this thread; it's certainly been interesting reading so many different views and I have pondered what my own one choice would be.

I toyed with companies where I have more medium-term convictions (eg Asos (LON:ASC) , Hibbett Sport) but given the volatile nature of the last 6 months and an implied focus on 2022 only, I have instead opted for Telekom Austria, which is listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange.

Some stats:

Stock Rank of 95;
Very high cash generation with Price/Free Cash Flow = 6.7;
Reasonable, growing dividend;
Largest telecommunications company in Austria;
Growing presence in Eastern Europe (eg, Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia, etc...);
Highly recurring revenue and strong pricing power, a good thing in these inflationary times.

If there was any risk that I could see it would be the 51% holding by American Movil, which is a very high controlling stake. This would usually deter me from buying, however my concerns are somewhat eased by:

the share structure having been in place for many years now, seemingly without issue, and;
the industry (telecoms) and the location (HQ is in Austria).
I imagine regulations are strong and would limit any unscrupulous actions or attempts for 100% control on the cheap.

I have held a small amount in the "should-be-safe, growth-a-tad-slow" part of my portfolio since April 2020.

It's nothing exciting, but seems a solid hold going into 2022.

Cheers

In Ed’s post, a thumbs up was suggested for agreement was all I meant, I regret now further reducing the very thing I was getting at in respect of his other request to also maintain information density :D

bullhead

19th Jan '22

Jadestone energy Jupiter 2nd Enhanced Inc (LON:JSE)

Basic case for investment is low cost of production no debt no hedge on oil price and rising oil production

Has exposure longer term to gas production for Vietnam and Indonesia oil production at the moment is based in Australia New Zealand and Malaysia

One more thing no one else seems to like it

Here is the latest operational update

Operational update - 20,000 boe/d year-end target achieved

16 December 2021 - Singapore: Jadestone Energy plc (the "Company"), an independent oil and gas production company focused on the Asia-Pacific region, is pleased to provide the following update on operations and Company guidance for 2021.

Key Points

l Achieved the target of delivering around 20,000 boe/d of production by year-end 2021, driven by strong performance from the Montara H6 well and initial flows from Skua-11 post workover.

l 2021 average annual production expected to be around the midpoint of the 11,500-13,500 boe/d guidance range.

l 2021 unit production cost guidance is unchanged at US$25.50-29.50/boe, with unit opex at year-end expected to be significantly below the lower end of this range due to the recent increase in production.

l 2021 major spending is now expected to be toward the upper end of the previous guidance range of US$105-115 million, as a result of additional work undertaken to successfully complete the Montara activity programme.

Operational Update

During the fourth quarter of 2021 to date, Company production has averaged approximately 17,800 boe/d.

This has been largely driven by strong performance from Montara, reflecting ongoing steady production from the Montara H6 infill well and, more recently, the addition of Skua-11 following its successful workover, which included reperforating the heel of the well with the aim of enhancing its production potential.

Production from Montara has been impacted by some rig-related downtime at the field associated with the activity programme. The Skua-11 workover also took longer than anticipated due to the need to replace the subsea tree, while a downhole component failed to function at the later stages of the Skua-10 activity. However, the Skua-10 workover operation is now practically complete, with the Montara subsea wells currently shut in to facilitate the rigging down and hook-up of the Skua-10 well and safe departure of the rig. Prior to this shutdown, group production averaged 20,000 boe/d over a five day period and is expected to increase further once both of the Skua wells are brought back onstream.

Paul Blakeley, President and CEO commented:

"We are very pleased to be concluding the Montara activity programme with no safety incidents to date, and, with the addition of Skua-11 production, we have already met our target of delivering 20,000 boe/d production by year-end 2021. We now expect to reap the benefits of higher production and attractive pricing, given ongoing oil price strength, our unhedged position and recent improvements in the Tapis differential."

above is JADESTONE ENERGY

Have no idea why the ticker JSE comes up with Jupiter Fund

HHR

7th Jan '23

As thoughts turn to 2023 and our tips I thought it would be good to look back at what we said for 2022.

Well done illiswilgig for recommending MSI the top performer with a 216% gain.

Ticker	Share	Number of up votes	Date recommended	Price recommended (first trading day close following recommendation)	Latest price	Percent Gain/Loss
msi	ms international	9	06/01/2022	215	680	216.3
all	atlantic lithium	2	07/01/2022	26.6	36.5	37.2
bmy	bloomsbury	30	06/01/2022	350	447.5	27.9
cna	centrica	7	10/01/2022	74	92.5	25.0
cne	capricorn energy	3	06/01/2022	196.8	241	22.5
fres	fresnillo	7	06/01/2022	820.6	965	17.6
capd	capital	18	09/01/2022	88.8	102	14.9
slp	sylvania platinum	15	08/01/2022	92	105	14.1
avct	avacta	8	07/01/2022	116	126	8.6
afm	Alpha Financial Markets	0	13/01/2022	440	462.5	5.1
slp	Sylvania platinum (second recommendation)	12	15/01/2022	99.9	105	5.1
rkh	rockhopper	4	08/01/2022	9.5	9.51	0.1
	FTSE all share		05/01/2022	4249	4210	-0.9
atm	afritin mining	9	08/01/2022	5.6	5.35	-4.5
save	savannah energy	7	11/01/2022	27.5	26.25	-4.5
kefi	kefi gold and copper	4	17/01/2022	0.77	0.721	-6.4
aaf	airtel	16	06/01/2022	137	118.3	-13.6
vnh	vietnam holdings	10	15/01/2022	322	274	-14.9
	Average					-17.5
jse	jadestone	1	19/01/2022	93	75	-19.4
tka	Telekon Austria	1	18/01/2022	7.68	6.08	-20.8
macf	macfarlane	21	05/01/2022	135	103	-23.7
atym	atalya	34	05/01/2022	435	325	-25.3
jlp	jubilee	8	16/01/2022	16	10.8	-32.5
som	somero	38	05/01/2022	592	397	-32.9
dark	darktrace	0	12/01/2022	443	285	-35.7
wosg	watches of switzerland	16	05/01/2022	1514	936	-38.2
lio	liontrust	7	11/01/2022	1904	1162	-39.0
polr	Polar	17	05/01/2022	778	469	-39.7
see	seeing machines	5	05/01/2022	11.12	6.34	-43.0
saga	saga	9	05/01/2022	292	149.5	-48.8
bids	bidstack	11	05/01/2022	4.4	1.95	-55.7
syme	supply me capital	3	07/01/2022	0.16	0.07	-56.3
xlm	xl media	5	16/01/2022	43	17.5	-59.3
zim	zim integrated shipping services	5	06/01/2022	55.73	17.13	-69.3
rm.	rm	6	06/01/2022	198.5	60	-69.8
enet	ethernity	0	15/01/2022	38.5	9.75	-74.7
eaas	eenergy	2	05/01/2022	14.65	3.3	-77.5
stx	shield	6	11/01/2022	41	6.5	-84.1
rmm	ramble metals and mining	1	16/01/2022	35.25	5.38	-84.7

What is your #1 share pick for 2022?

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Edward Croft

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