RCS - ATOME PLC - Global Fertiliser Market Commentary

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RNS Number : 7100Y  ATOME PLC  31 March 2026

 

For immediate release

31 March 2026

 

 

ATOME PLC

("ATOME" or the "Company")

 

ATOME Comments on Global Fertiliser Market Disruption and Strategic
Positioning

 

ATOME (AIM: ATOM), the world-leading low-carbon fertiliser developer and the
UK's only dedicated international industrial scale low-carbon fertiliser
company, provides the following commentary on the ongoing Middle East
conflict's impact on global fertiliser markets and ATOME's strategic position
at its landmark, 260,000 tonnes-per-year fertiliser plant at Villeta, Paraguay
("Villeta" or "the Project").

 

 

Fertiliser Market Disruption

 

The ongoing Middle East conflict has caused direct supply disruptions to
global gas, ammonia, urea and sulphur markets with consequences that are
structural rather than transient - meaning the effects are in ATOME's opinion
likely to reshape global supply for years, not weeks. The imperative now is to
understand the cascading effects on global trade flows, fertiliser
affordability, and food security.

 

 

Direct Supply Consequence

 

Following Iranian strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan and Mesaieed complexes, Qatar
Energy closed its LNG and downstream production operations, immediately
curtailing Qafco's 5.6 million tonne per year urea facility. Iranian
facilities producing ammonia and urea - the key ingredients in most fertiliser
- are considered largely non-operational; inland facilities may be sustaining
partial domestic supply, but continued air strikes to key complexes on the
Persian Gulf create significant medium-term uncertainty.

 

The Strait of Hormuz - the narrow waterway through which flows 20-30% of the
world's fertiliser-grade nitrogen and 45% of its sulphur - is now at risk of
extended disruption, with potentially severe consequences for global food
supply.

 

Price impacts are already measurable 1  (#_ftn1) :

·      Urea FOB Egypt last recorded USD 800/t FOB Egypt - up 65% from
pre-crisis levels

·      Urea CFR Brazil last recorded at US$720/t - up 52%

·      Ammonia peaking at USD 800/t CFR Europe - up from $670/t
pre-conflict levels

·      Sulphur prices up 40% from already elevated levels, with CFR
China/Brazil forecast at USD 700/t - over 100% above June 2025 levels

 

Asia faces acute secondary pressure. India has invoked emergency gas
rationing, restricting nitrogen fertiliser production to approximately 70% of
capacity. Pakistan and Bangladesh have closed multiple urea plants. Asia -
which currently produces enough nitrogen to broadly meet its own needs - now
risks becoming heavily dependent on costly imports, with food producers and
farmers bearing the cost.

 

 

Structural and Long-Term Implications

 

Supply shocks of this magnitude have consequences that extend well beyond spot
price movements. For instance, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrated
how geopolitical disruption can permanently reshape global supply chain
architecture; the current crisis has the potential to accelerate that process
further.

 

Several structural shifts are now in train:

·      Geopolitical risk premiums are rising materially for supply
originating from the Middle East, Russia, and North Africa - structurally
improving the relative economics of stable, locally situated production.

·      Government policy is accelerating the transition toward domestic
energy and fertiliser security. India, Brazil and key Mercosur economies are
under increasing pressure to prioritise local, resilient supply - regardless
of short-term cost differentials.

·      Commodity nitrogen routes dependent on long-haul gas upgrading
are demonstrably more vulnerable than demand-led, value-added fertiliser
systems positioned close to end markets.

·      Regulatory frameworks - including Brazil's Fertiliser Plan and
the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism - are increasingly aligned with
local, low-carbon production models.

·      Leading fertiliser multinationals are actively restructuring
their sourcing to reduce exposure to concentrated, politically unstable supply
chains. This trend, which accelerated following 2022, is likely to intensify
further.

 

The aggregate effect is a structural revaluation of supply chain resilience -
in which proximity to end markets, renewable energy access, and political
stability command a growing premium.

 

 

Strategic Significance for ATOME

 

The immediate and longer-term structural changes to the global energy and
fertiliser markets validate ATOME's business model and the Villeta Project's
strategic rationale, focused on:

 

·      Local resilience: Mega nitrogen complexes concentrated in the
Middle East and Russia are demonstrably vulnerable. Villeta - powered by
long-term, stable 100% hydropower, in the heart of the Mercosur agricultural
hub - offers security that markets now urgently require.

·      Risk premium shift: Geopolitical risk premiums for competing
supply from the Middle East, Russia and North Africa are rising sharply,
improving the relative investment case for ATOME's stable, Paraguay-based
production.

·      Regulatory tailwinds: Brazil's Fertiliser Plan, EU CBAM and
equivalent Mercosur initiatives are accelerating support for local, low-carbon
fertiliser production - directly aligned with ATOME's model.

·      Offtake: ATOME's long-term offtake agreement with Yara
International, one of the world's largest fertiliser companies, for 100% of
production, demonstrates how leading agricultural and commodity players are
supporting supply chain transition away from vulnerable, politically exposed
geographies.

 

 

Terje Bakken, Director of Ammonia and Fertiliser Markets at ATOME PLC,
commented:

 

"Current events are a stark validation of what we are building at ATOME.
Whilst supply effects can be short term - we believe the consequences of the
crisis will be long term. There is already a "New Normal" as companies and
governments create their own "war rooms" assessing the vulnerabilities and
risks of old supply systems. The world cannot continue to rely on
concentrated, fossil-fuel-dependent supply from geopolitically unstable
regions to feed its population. Villeta, being in the centre of one of the
most important agricultural regions of the world, is exactly the locally
resilient, renewably powered fertiliser solution that markets, and the sector
now are urgently seeking."

 

 

For further information on ATOME, please visit the Company's Curation Connect
showcase at: https://app.curationconnect.com/company/Atome-71605
(https://app.curationconnect.com/company/Atome-71605)

 

For more information, please visit https://www.atomeplc.com or contact:

 

 ATOME PLC                                +44 (0) 113 337 2210
 Nikita Levine, Investor Relations
info@atomeplc.com

 FTI Consulting (Communications Adviser)  +44 (0) 20 3727 1000

                                        atome@fticonsulting.com (mailto:atome@fticonsulting.com)
 Ben Brewerton

 

About ATOME

 

ATOME PLC is an AIM-listed company targeting green fertiliser production with
445-megawatt of projects in Paraguay and a further pipeline of potential
projects in Central America. ATOME has now created its ATOME POWER division
which is in the early stages of developing a significant green power
generation and infrastructure business. ATOME's projects are situated at the
heart of one of the world's largest food export hubs - the Mercosur region in
the Southern Cone of South America with the Argentinian and Brazilian markets
next door. ATOME's production will disrupt the region's heavy dependence on
imported fossil fuel generated fertiliser, contributing to regional food
security goals.

 

ATOME's first project in Villeta, Paraguay, benefits from a 145MW renewable
power purchase agreement and a 30-hectare site in a tax-free zone, with an
option already secured to purchase an additional 13 hectares of adjacent land.
Front End Engineering Design studies have been completed and a 10-year
Definitive Offtake Agreement signed with Yara International, the leading
international fertiliser company, for offtake of all of Villeta's green
fertiliser production. In early 2025, ATOME announced Hy24, the leading clean
hydrogen asset manager, as anchor and lead equity investor in the project, and
confirmed the signing of the US$465 million fixed-price EPC contract with
leading ammonia and fertiliser engineering specialist Casale S.A. The Company
is now negotiating the project finance, having announced the signing of the
US$420M debt agreements with leading development finance institutions, with a
view to commencing construction work in 2026. There is a further up to 300MW
of renewable power reserved for ATOME in Paraguay.

 

In Costa Rica, The National Ammonia Corporation S.A. was formed in 2022 with
local partner Cavendish S.A. based in Costa Rica to develop green fertiliser
projects for the region. As well as straddling the Pacific and Atlantic
Oceans, Costa Rica is a democratic Central American country. In agriculture,
Costa Rica is the second largest supplier of pineapples in the world and is in
the top ten banana growers.

 

All power for ATOME is from 100% renewable sources and all chosen sites are
located close to the power and water sources and export facilities to serve
significant domestic and then international demand. Roughly a third of
human-caused GHG emissions is linked to food production according to UN data,
and fertiliser use and production is the source of more emissions than the
shipping and aviation industries combined. ATOME's green Calcium Ammonium
Nitrate product will contribute to decarbonising the food sector from the
bottom up, getting to the root of the food value chain's emissions. ATOME's
renewably-generated fertiliser is both clean and promotes high crop yields,
unlike conventional nitrogen fertiliser which has a heavy carbon footprint.

 

The Company has a green-focused Board which is supported by major shareholders
including Peter Levine, Schroders, a leading fund manager, and Baker Hughes, a
global technology company operating in the energy and industry sectors.

 

 

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 1  (#_ftnref1) Published prices; FOB = price at point of export; CFR =
delivered price including freight to destination port.

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