Capstone Copper misses Q3 adjusted profit estimates on production drop; trims output forecast

Capstone Copper

29/10/2026 20:31

Overview
Canada copper miner's Q3 revenue rose 19% yr/yr, slightly beating analyst expectations
Record adjusted EBITDA for Q3 beat analyst estimates; adjusted net income missed consensus
Company completed Mantoverde Optimized Project tie-in and agreed to sell Cozamin mine

Outlook
Capstone Copper expects 2026 copper production at low end of 200,000-230,000 tonnes guidance
2026 C1 cash costs seen at high end of $2.45-$2.75/lb guidance, mainly due to Pinto Valley and lower cathode output
2026 capital expenditure guidance raised by $40 mln to $830 mln, reflecting higher diesel prices and mine sequence changes

Result Drivers
HIGHER COPPER PRICES - Capstone said increased revenue and earnings were supported by higher realized copper prices
MANTOVERDE PROJECT TIE-IN - Completion of Mantoverde Optimized Project tie-in contributed to higher mill throughput and recoveries
LOWER PRODUCTION VOLUMES - Consolidated copper production fell 18% yr/yr, mainly due to lower output at Mantos Blancos, Pinto Valley and Mantoverde cathodes

Company press release: ID:nBw2RdtFxa

Key Details
Metric
Beat/Miss
Actual
Consensus Estimate
Q3 Revenue
Slight Beat*
$712 mln
$709.50 mln (8 Analysts)
Q3 Adjusted Net Income
Miss
$93.80 mln
$101.73 mln (3 Analysts)
Q3 Net Income
 
$132 mln
 
Q3 Adjusted EBITDA
Beat
$358.30 mln
$326.61 mln (12 Analysts)
Q3 Cash Flow from Op. Activities
 
$329.10 mln
 
*Applies to a deviation of less than 1%; not applicable for per-share numbers.

Analyst Coverage
The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 16 "strong buy" or "buy", 2 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"
The average consensus recommendation for the specialty mining & metals peer group is "buy"
Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Capstone Copper Corp is C$18.00, about 49.8% above its October 28 closing price of C$12.02
The stock recently traded at 10 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 13 three months ago

Reuters Recommended Reads
Oct 28 - Copper miner First Quantum beats Q3 profit estimates on higher production, prices; output guidance narrowed
Oct 29 - Canada's Teck Resources Q3 revenue beats on higher output, copper prices
Oct 28 - Canada's Amerigo Resources Q3 net income surges on higher copper prices

For questions concerning the data in this report, contact Estimates.Support@lseg.com. For any other questions or feedback, contact reuters.support@thomsonreuters.com.

(This story was created using Reuters automation and AI based on LSEG and company data. It was checked and edited by a Reuters journalist prior to publication.)