Chile copper output to fall 2.6% in 2026 before rebound, Cochilco says

Capstone Copper

11/08/2026 17:17

SANTIAGO, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Chile's copper production is expected to fall 2.6% this year to 5.27 million metric tons before recovering in 2027, state copper commission Cochilco said on Tuesday, pointing to weak output at state miner Codelco COBRE.UL and BHP's BHP.AX Chilean operations. 
Cochilco said the weaker 2026 outlook reflected an exceptionally poor first half, with lower production at Codelco and BHP's Escondida and Spence, as well as structural restrictions across several operations.
The agency said output should partly recover in the second half, helped by improvements at Codelco's El Teniente, progress at the state miner's Rajo Inca, greater stability at Teck's TECKb.TO Quebrada Blanca, normalization at Capstone Copper's CS.TO Mantoverde and better ore and water conditions at Collahuasi, the mine jointly owned by Anglo American AAL.L, Glencore GLEN.L and a Japanese consortium. 
Los Pelambres, which Cochilco also flagged as a contributor to the 2027 rebound, is operated by Antofagasta ANTO.L.
For 2027, Cochilco forecast Chilean copper output would rebound to 5.55 million tons, supported by a low comparison base and the gradual recovery and ramp-up of operations. 
It said the main contributions would come from Codelco, Quebrada Blanca, Escondida, Collahuasi, Los Pelambres and Mantoverde.
Cochilco also raised its forecast for the average copper price in 2026 to $5.95 per pound and kept its 2027 estimate at $5.10 per pound, saying strong global demand and persistent supply constraints would keep the market tight.
Global copper demand is forecast at 27.8 million tons in 2026, up 1.9%, led by China, where consumption is seen rising 2.7% to 16 million tons, or 57.6% of world demand, Cochilco said.

 (Reporting by Fabian Cambero and Kylie Madry; Editing by Daina Beth Solomon)
 ((Kylie.Madry@thomsonreuters.com;))