US LNG exports to rise at smallest pace since 2016

CKX Lands

31/10/2024 12:00

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      Delays and production outages constrain growth
    

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      Faster expansion should resume next year with new projects
    

  
    By Curtis Williams and Scott DiSavino
       HOUSTON/NEW YORK Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied
natural gas exports this year will rise about 2%, analysts
estimate, the smallest annual increase since 2016 when the first
big U.S. LNG export plant opened, launching a boom that drove
the country's producers to the top of world gas exporters.
    Slower gains reflect delays and production outages and the
absence of a new facility since March 2022 when Venture Global
LNG's started up its Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana, project. 
    This year's 2% increase in export volumes, to 12.1 billion
cubic feet per day (bcfd), is down from 12% last year and the
average growth rate of 43% between 2018 and 2022, according to
data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
    The dollar value of U.S. exports reached a peak of $47.33
billion in 2022, when prices skyrocketed after Russia's invasion
of Ukraine. Prices eased and last year's U.S. exports were
valued at $34.27 billion, according to U.S. government data.
    Faster growth should resume next year when new projects
start. Gains could rise around 14% to an estimated 13.8 bcfd in
2025, according to an EIA outlook. 
    U.S. LNG capacity could more than double over the next four
years, rising to around 17.8 bcfd next year, 20.6 bcfd in 2026,
and reach 24.5 bcfd in 2028, analysts estimate.
    
    TWO STARTUPS AHEAD 
    The seven big LNG export plants are capable of turning
around 13.8 bcfd of natural gas into LNG for export. Since 2023
the U.S. has been the world's largest exporter of the
superchilled gas.
    The 2024 forecast includes some output from two projects
scheduled to start operation by year-end: Cheniere Energy's
 LNG.N  Sabine Pass, Texas, expansion, and Venture Global's
Plaquemines, Louisiana facility. 
    A contractor's bankruptcy has delayed the third project that
was due to open this year, the QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil
 XOM.N  Golden Pass joint venture. The partners say they expect
to deliver first LNG in the second half of next year, but others
see the delay stretching into 2026. 
    "That sort of thing is very disruptive and so getting back
up to speed when something like that is happening is a
challenge," said Jason Feer, Poten and Partners Global head of
business intelligence.
    This year's growth was constrained by maintenance and other
outages at the second-largest U.S. export facility, Freeport
LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas. 
    Its output was cut by more than half for almost four months
from mid January, according to the company and data from
financial firm LSEG.

 (Reporting by Curtis Williams in Houston and Scott DiSavino in
New York; Editing by David Gregorio)
 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters
Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))