Softs: Arabica coffee touches one-month high amid low stocks, strong Brazil currency

COMMERZBANK AG

Mon 16:26

Updates prices
LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Arabica coffee futures on ICE hit a fresh one-month high on Monday amid still critically low exchange stocks and as top grower Brazil's currency strengthened. Sugar and cocoa headed lower meanwhile.

COFFEE
* Arabica coffee KCc1 rose 3% to $3.1460 per lb at 1510 GMT, having gained 6.5% last week. It earlier hit a one-month high of $3.1585
* Driving coffee, the Brazilian real BRL= continued to strengthen, boosted by expectations Flavio Bolsonaro will be elected president
* A strong real deters exporters from selling by lowering their returns in local currency terms 
* Elsewhere, ICE-certified stocks were last at 240,767 bags, not far off last month's 27-year-low of 217,646 bags
* Market participants are growing nervous that Brazil supplies will not arrive at ICE warehouses ahead of the December contract expiry
* Robusta coffee LRCc2 rose 1.6% to $3,459 a metric ton
* Top robusta grower Vietnam's coffee output is likely to remain steady in the 2026/27 season as stronger production from younger, replanted trees offsets losses linked to unfavourable weather earlier this year
* The relief for global markets could be relatively short lived however as this year's El Niño weather pattern, which some meteorologists say is the strongest on record, is expected to heavily impact next season's crop
     
COCOA
* London cocoa LCCc2 ​slipped 0.3% to £4,344 a ton, after setting a 1-1/2-month high of £4,640 on Wednesday on signs of improved demand for the chocolate ingredient
* Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached 37,000 metric tons in the week ending October 18, exporters estimated, down 55.9% from the same week a year ago
* Dry weather across most of Ivory Coast's cocoa belt last week raised concerns about potential damage to pods for next year's harvest, farmers said
* New York cocoa CCc1 was little changed at $5,649 a ton, having set a one-month peak last Wednesday
     
SUGAR
* Raw sugar SBc1 fell 1.1% to 20.62 cents per lb​​, having hit a 19-month peak of 21.29 last Wednesday
* Sugar is consolidating after rallying on excess El Nino-linked rains in top grower Brazil, which slowed production in September and reduced the sucrose in the cane
* Elsewhere, Indian sugar stocks fell after the government directed oil marketing companies to reduce sugar diversion for ethanol production to zero for the 2026/27 supply year
* The move is aimed at increasing domestic sugar availability and easing record high prices in India, the world's biggest sugar consumer and No 2 producer
* White sugar LSUc1 fell 1.1% to $549 a ton

 (Reporting by May Angel; Editing by Tasim Zahid and Joyjeet Das)
 ((may.angel@thomsonreuters.com; x.com/ReutersAngelM; linkedin.com/in/may-angel-03b69a41/;))