UBS raises 2026-27 Brent price view on persistent Middle East supply disruptions

COMMERZBANK AG

06/10/2026 11:25

Updates with UBS
Oct 6(Reuters) - UBS raised its Brent crude price forecasts for the 2026 and 2027 stating that Middle East flows were disrupted more than expected following the breakdown of the June US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and added that the recovery remains fragile given the ongoing attacks.
"While Hormuz flows have materially recovered in recent weeks, this improvement has come at great expense and remains fragile given ongoing Iranian attacks," UBS said in the note dated Monday.
The bank forecasts Brent crude at $100 per barrel in Q4 2026, up from about $80 per barrel previously, and $91.57 as the 2026 average compared to a previous forecast of $83.74 for the same period. 
"We assume a gradual normalisation of regional oil flows through the first half of 2027 on the basis of a similar arrangement to the June MoU by the end of the year but factor in a higher near-term risk premium as the path to normalisation remains uncertain," the bank said.
New attacks and disruptions to flows could send prices to $120+/bbl, the bank said, adding that oil prices might fall more rapidly than anticipated if a US-Iran agreement is reached and flows ramp up more quickly.
Gulf oil exporters topped pre-war levels for about half of September, shipping data showed on Monday, although attacks on tankers and logistical constraints cloud the outlook for sustained higher flows.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as resilient Middle Eastern crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release eased supply concerns, though lingering security risks in the region capped further losses. O/R
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 1.8% at $98.48 a barrel at around 1013 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 fell 1.9% to $87.70 a barrel. O/R
The table below lists price forecasts after the U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement:
Brokerage/Agency
Brent
WTI 
Forecasts as of 
Price Targets
 
2026
2027
2026
2027
 
 
UBS
$91.57
$80
$86.6
$76
Oct 5
Raises Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $100/bbl from $80/bbl
Morgan Stanley 
 
 
 
 
Aug 23
 
Raises Q326 Brent forecast to $90/bbl and Q426 to $100/bbl; raises Q127 forecast to $95/bbl, Q227 to $90/bbl, Q327 to $80/bbl and Q427 to $75/bbl
Citi

$65


Aug 7
Raises Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $80/bbl from $75/bbl
Goldman
Expects Brent in $80-$90 range until US-Iran deal or major escalation
ANZ
 
 
 
 
July 24
Maintains end-Q3 2026 Brent forecast of $92/bbl
HSBC
$80.00 ($95 previously)
$65.00 ($75 previously)
 
 
July 8
 
Barclays 
$96($100 previously)
$85 ($88 previously)
$90
$82
 
June 26, 2026
Sees Brent at $100/bbl for Q3 2026 and $95/bbl for Q4 2026
Macquarie
$77.09 ($89.28 previously)
$64 ($74.50 previously)
$71.42 ($82.93 previously)
$60 ($70.50 previously)
June 24, 2026
 
J.P. Morgan
$85 ($96 previously)
-
$80 ($89 previously)
$59 ($70 previously)
June 24, 2026
 
Commerzbank
 
 
 
 
June 19, 2026
Expects Brent to trade at $80/bbl by end-2026
BofA
$82
$70
$78
$66
June 17, 2026
 

 (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Louise Heavens)
 ((sukanya.mitra@thomsonreuters.com;))