U.S. set to win new soybean sales due to small South American crops -Oil World
25/01/2022 14:30
HAMBURG, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Smaller soybean crops expected
in key South American producers are likely to push major soybean
export business to the United States from June onwards,
Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
Oil World estimates the combined soybean harvests in the
current 2021/2022 season in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and
Uruguay will fall to about 186.3 million tonnes, down by 7.4
million tonnes from the last season, and a four-year low.
Amid uncertainty about final crop sizes after unfavourable
weather ranging from drought to excessive rain, South American
farmers may also be restrained sellers in coming months, keeping
more soybeans in stock as a hedge against inflation, Oil World
said.
“U.S. farmers will benefit, as buyers in the importing
countries will increasingly shift to U.S. soybeans from June or
July onward, with the biggest increase on the year likely to
occur in September/December 2022,” Oil World said.
“But already in the next few weeks, export sales of U.S.
soybeans are likely to pick up for shipment in the second half
of this season as well as for next season.”
Oil World forecasts Brazil’s soybean crop will fall to about
135 million tonnes from 138.5 million tonnes last year. It
estimates Argentina’s crop at around 42 million tonnes from 43.8
million tonnes last year.
Reduced world soybean harvests will also result in
lower-than-expected global soybean imports and crushings this
year, it said.
“The major effect will be on soymeal and it is therefore
likely that soymeal prices will strengthen relative to soyoil in
the next three to six months,” Oil World said.
(Reporting by Michael Hogan,
Editing by Bernadette Baum)
((michael.j.hogan@thomsonreuters.com; +49 172 671 36 54;
Reuters Messaging:
michael.hogan.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))