Poll: Norway's central bank to keep rates unchanged on Thursday
15/12/2025 12:03
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=NOINTR%3DECI poll data By Jagoda Darlak Gdansk, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Norway's central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold when the monetary policy committee meets later this week, but may signal two cuts in 2026 amid recent signs of a weaker economic outlook, a Reuters poll of economists showed on Monday. Norges Bank held its key policy rate at 4.0% in November and said it was in no hurry to cut, even if further easing was likely in the year ahead. All but one of the 28 economists in the December 10-15 poll forecast the bank would leave rates unchanged on Thursday. Capacity utilisation at Norwegian companies has declined somewhat in the last three months, and business leaders expect growth to slow in early 2026 from current elevated levels, a recent central bank survey showed. Core inflation eased more than expected in November to 3.0% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in October, Statistics Norway data showed last week, reinforcing expectations that rates could fall next year. Inflation remains above the central bank's 2.0% target, however, limiting scope for cuts. DNB Markets said it expected Norges Bank to keep the policy rate at 4.0% this week. Data since September pointed to a slightly lower rate path, making a June cut the most likely outcome, DNB said in a note. Norges Bank has so far forecast only one rate cut next year, but the poll's median prediction showed analysts expect a reduction in the second quarter and another in the final quarter, each by 25 basis points, taking the rate to 3.5% by end-2026. Handelsbanken said the policy rate was "almost certainly" set to remain unchanged on Thursday and that the updated rate path would bring forward the timing of the next cut, while the longer-term endpoint could be adjusted slightly higher. The U.S. Federal Reserve last week cut its key policy rate by 25 bps while the European Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting on December 18. (Reporting by Jagoda Darlak. Polling by Debrah Gomes in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter) ((Jagoda.Darlak@thomsonreuters.com; +48 58 769 65 40))