** Bernstein downgrades Spanish airport operator Aena AENA.MC and German peer Fraport FRAG.DE to "market perform" from "outperform" on macro risks amid a turning capex cycle, and says it prefers opportunities elsewhere
** It notes the Iran conflict has lifted jet fuel costs which raises the risk of higher air fares and summer capacity cuts if supply disruptions persist
** "Demand remains broadly resilient but is showing early softness," the broker says
** It warns highly levered hub airports like Fraport are most at risk due to exposure to fuel-inefficient fleets and European assets
** Operators, such as Aena and Flughafen Zuerich FHZN.S, with stronger balance sheets and diversified airline and international exposure are better positioned, it adds
** It also says European operators are entering an "unprecedented capex cycle driven by airport capacity constraints and decarbonization"
** The broker highlights regulated investment is set to more than double over the next decade, led by Aena, FHZ and Aeroports de Paris ADP.PA, while Fraport gets a "capex holiday" partly offset by high recurrent cash outflows
(Reporting by Marta Serafinko in Gdansk)
((marta.serafinko@thomsonreuters.com; +48 58 769 66 00;))