Morningstar cuts Aussie GrainCorp's FY profit outlook, fair value as weak prices hit earnings

Graincorp

02/02/2026 19:48

** Morningstar trims GrainCorp’s GNC.AX annual earnings outlook and fair‑value estimate after the agribusiness warned of a steep profit drop, hurt by depressed commodity prices

** Investment research firm cuts GNC’s fiscal 2026 underlying EBITDA forecast by 28% to A$220 million ($152.79 million), aligning only with the midpoint of the firm’s new outlook range, which is falling short of last year’s A$308 million

** Trims its fair‑value estimate by 5% to A$7.90 a share, noting GNC’s vulnerability to forces beyond its control -- such as global grain prices and seasonal weather -- while emphasising that periodic oversupply is a recurring feature that has long weighed on pricing and returns

** Six of eight analysts rate the stock a “buy” or higher, with the remainder at “hold”; their mean PT is A$8.05 - LSEG data

** Stock down 13.8% YTD as of last close

($1 = 1.4399 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Kumar Tanishk in Bengaluru)

((Tanishk.Kumar@thomsonreuters.com; X: @thatstanishk http://www.x.com/thatstanishk;))