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Live Markets: To survive a fractured world, ditch the old rulebook

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TO SURVIVE A FRACTURED WORLD, DITCH THE OLD RULEBOOK

Geopolitics has morphed from an episodic market irritant into a permanent factor shaping the global investment landscape, and investors need to pick winners actively instead of betting on broad-based growth, according to fund managers.

Policymakers have started to prioritise national security over economic efficiency, marking a decisive break from decades of globalisation-led thinking, said Wellington Management's geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha.

"We're at the beginning stages of a new investment regime," he said, pointing to semiconductor, robotics, AI, space technology, critical minerals and defence industries as potential beneficiaries of government support as countries around the world attempt to turn more self-reliant.

Long-standing assumptions that formed the bedrock of global markets, such as central bank independence, may also no longer hold.

"I don't think you can keep central banks fully independent of political influences. The central bank and the government are always going to be loosely tied," said David Kang, CEO of investment firm Ducenta Squared Asset Management.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, while his administration opened a criminal investigation into the central bank's Chair Jerome Powell.

Additionally, a report earlier this week said Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed reservations about additional interest rate hikes during her meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Mucha said investors may need to rethink the passive playbook that defined the past decade, with active management becoming more important as performance gaps widen across countries, sectors and even within industries.

(Niket Nishant)

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