Factbox: JP Morgan lowers Brent price forecast as it sees oil market rebalancing

HSBC Holdings

Yesterday 13:27

Adds latest from JP Morgan

    June 16 (Reuters) - 
    J.P. Morgan on Wednesday lowered its average price outlook for Brent crude for the last two quarters, citing larger-than-expected demand losses and lower inventory withdrawals than anticipated.

        J.P. Morgan now expects Brent to average $86 a barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The bank mentioned that it expects Brent exiting 2026 at $78 a barrel.
"While the magnitude and duration of the oil shock evolved broadly as expected, the market has rebalanced through a meaningfully different mix of demand losses and inventory withdrawals than we initially assumed," JP Morgan said.
Other banks also lowered their Brent price forecasts after there appeared to be progress in the U.S.-Iran peace talks that could pave the way to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit choke point.

        Bank of America said last week that a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could see Brent average $82/bbl this year, compared with its previous forecast of $93/bbl.
Brent would likely trade in the $70 to $80 range for most of the second half of this year, it added.

        Goldman Sachs lowered its fourth-quarter Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 from $90 and cut its 2027 average estimate to $75 from $80, while Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for the fourth quarter of this year by $15 per barrel to $80 and its third-quarter forecast to $90 from $100 earlier.

        Citi cut its average Brent forecasts to $75 and $70 per barrel for the third and fourth quarters respectively.
The table below lists price forecasts after the U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement:
Brokerage/Agency
Brent
WTI 
Forecasts as of 
Price Targets
 
2026
2027
2026
2027
 
 

            J.P. Morgan
          

            $85 ($96 previously)
          
-

            $80 ($89 previously)
459 ($70 previously)
June 24, 2026

            BofA
          
$82
$70
$78
$66
June 17, 2026
Goldman Sachs
$85 ($90 previously) 
$75 ($80 previously) 
$80 ($85 previously)
$70 ($75 previously)
June 15, 2026
 
Morgan Stanley
 
 
 
 
June 15, 2026
Lowers Brent forecasts to $90/bbl for Q3 2026 and $80/bbl for Q4 2026
Barclays 
$100
$88
$92
$85
June 16, 2026
Maintains $100/b forecast for Brent in 2026.
Citi
$81
$65
$76
$61
June 15, 2026
New quarterly oil price forecasts at 3Q26/4Q26/2027 $75/bbl, $70/bbl, and $65/bbl, respectively (down from $110/90/80/bbl)
     
     The following table contains price forecasts published before the U.S.-Iran peace agreement was announced:
Brokerage/Agency
Brent
WTI 
Forecasts as of 
Price Targets
 
2026
2027
2026
2027
 
 
ANZ
$92
$76
$88
$76
April 9, 2026
 
UBS
-
-
-
-
April 13, 2026
Expects prices 
to trade >$150/bbl if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted.
Sees Brent at $100/bbl by end-June 2026, $95 by end-Sept, $90 by end-Dec
Macquarie
$89.28
$74.50
$82.93
$70.50
March 27 
If the war continues until end of June, oil prices may rise to $200
 
Standard Chartered
$85.50 ($70 previously)
 
 
 
 
Expects Brent to average $78/bbl in Q1'26, and $98/bbl in Q2'26
BMI
$70 ($67 previously)
$70
$68
$68
March 12, 2026
Expects Brent to average $67/bbl and $69/bbl in Q3’26 and Q4'26, respectively.
HSBC
$80 ($65 previously)
$70($66 previously)
$76($61 previously)
$67($63 previously)
March 10, 2026
 
      

(Reporting by Anjana Anil, Noel John and Swati Verma in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter and Leroy Leo)
((Noel.John@thomsonreuters.com;))