HSBC lowers 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,490/oz (updated)

HSBC Holdings

01/10/2026 14:25

Adds more from HBSC and context on gold from paragraph 3 onwards
Oct 1 (Reuters) - HSBC cut its gold price forecasts on Thursday, citing expectations of further US interest rate hikes and higher oil prices that could weigh on bullion in the near term, though it expects longer-term support to remain intact.
The bank now sees gold trading at an average price of $4,490 an ounce in 2026, down from a previous forecast of $4,560. It also lowered its 2027 price forecast to $4,825 an ounce from $4,925 previously. 
The bank said it expects gold to remain weighed down by expectations of further US interest rate increases and higher bond yields, which reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets. Economists at HSBC see another Federal Reserve rate hike this year in December. 
It added that persistent tensions in the Middle East could trigger renewed rallies in crude oil prices, potentially fuelling inflation and reinforcing the higher-for-longer interest rate outlook.
Bullion has fallen over 20% since the onset of the US-Iran war, pressured by a spike in crude oil prices that stoked inflation pressures and gave way to the Fed raising interest rates for the first time in three years. 
However, the bank expects several longer-term supportive factors to re-emerge, including mounting fiscal deficits, elevated government debt levels and broader economic policy uncertainty, which it sees reviving investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
HSBC also highlighted robust investment demand in China and improving demand in India, while noting that central banks are likely to continue accumulating gold over the longer term and could increase purchases during periods of price weakness.
It forecast gold to trade between $3,950 and $4,600 per ounce for the remainder of 2026 and between $4,300 and $5,300 in 2027. 
The bank left its 2028 and 2029 average price forecasts unchanged at $5,200 and $5,300 an ounce, respectively. 

 (Reporting by Pablo Sinha and Noel John in Bengaluru
Editing by David Goodman and Andrew Cawthorne)
 ((Pablo.Sinha@thomsonreuters.com;))