Reuters Insider - World Cup: Who'll make the final?
07/07/2014 18:24
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Description: Can Brazil beat Germany without Neymar and Thiago
Silva? And what does Louis Van Gaal have planned
to arrest the progress of Argentina? Tips and
analysis from betting expert Nigel Seeley .
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Transcript (May be auto-generated)
So, just four teams left. There have been a few surprise packages, but in the
end, the World Cup semifinals will feature four heavyweights. So how will host
Brazil cope without talisman Neymar; they're up against Germany. And what does
Dutch coach Louis van Gaal got up his sleeve this time up against Argentina?
Well, with me today betting expert, Nigel Seeley, and also recently back from
Brazil, Iain Axon of Reuters Sports. So, Nigel, we start with you. I'll start
with Brazil against Germany. Neither side- you actually tipped to make it
through the quarter final stage. I'm not going to bring you up on that. But you
did say 0-0 and there's been a few 0-0's. I think we would have made money if
we'd backed you.
Brazil v. Germany, how do you see this one going? Well, the first thing is it's
going to be very, very tight. I mean, these two semifinals- like you say, four
heavyweights of the world game, and it's very, very half of bookmakers to split
the two of them. Now, this game here, bookmakers cannot split the two of them in
the betting. And they're both exactly the same price. But when you think-
consider that Brazil have got this unbelievable record at home, they haven't
lost in 41 matches. They haven't lost a competitive game in any competition
since 1975, and on their home turf, how can Germany be considered favorites to
win this game? I'm shocked by that. And the only reason they are is because
they've lost Neymar and they lost Thiago Silva. I personally think Thiago Silva
was a bigger player than Neymar really. I think he does. I think he scores goals
and I think defensively he's as strong. But when you can't split two sides, I
always find it staggering that the draw is the biggest price out of the three
options. And I say this on the show over the years we're doing this, the only
reason that is the case is because nobody ever bets the draw. If you've got a
bookmaker trying to say if there's a draw in this game, we win hundreds of
thousands of Pounds because no one ever bets it. But if you ask people really
what's the most likely outcome here, everyone is going to say it's going to be
tight and a draw. And why is a draw the biggest price of the three?
That's where I'll be heading towards. It's not original. I think it'll be very
tight. I think Brazil will go back now without Neymar to very defensively which
we expect them to build along. Going into the tournament, they were very hard to
breakdown. They let goals and then they try to just play Brazilian football with
Neymar in. Without him, I think they go to the midfield of Ramirez and the old
guard to make it tough for them. I fancy it being close. Draw for me all the
way. And Iain, speaking about a defensive side of Brazil, you're just back from
Brazil. Have the public over there fallen in love with this team yet? Well, the
thing to understand, when you go to Brazil, you go to Copacabana beach or any of
the cities really, and people love football. Now, they talk about football the
whole time. The streets are deserted when Brazil are playing. When they score,
the firecrackers go off. When they win a game, fireworks go off everywhere. But
I think there is a sense in Brazil and an understanding that this team isn't as
great as some of the Brazilian teams in the past. They don't play with the same
kind of flare. And I think previously, people in Brazil always expected their
teams to win the World Cup. And there's a greater understanding that this
Brazilian team may win the World Cup but it won't be a huge disaster if they
don't. People will be very upset but I think they know that they haven't quite
got the players this time around, and especially now as Nigel said that Neymar
out injured, Silva missing through suspensions. Well, it's going to be tough for
them to get through against Germany. And let's just discuss Germany for a
second.
No out-and-out striker really. They- kind of strange the way about they've gone
without a striker. Can they though find a way past the host? They've only met
once. If we're thinking about history, they only met once; that was in the 2002
final. What will they have to do to win? Well, they're the best team in the
competition. You look for a team, a collective, say, they're the best team, the
other ones have got- they're better individuals. But the Germans are a proper
side. They've got goal scorers from all over the pitch. I mean, the whole- they
don't have a striker but everyone can score. Hummels got the goal in the last-
in this quarterfinal stage. The biggest tactical decision he made and the right-
everyone goes on about Louis van Gaal with the goalkeeper breaking the
substitute.
But I think to putting in Lahm back as a fullback gave that side a huge balance.
They come with four center-halves at the back; they looked all over the place.
And one thing they're really susceptible to is pace. The Algerians got behind
that German back four. Without Neymar, half the Brazilians got the pace. It's
just that France couldn't do it. And they have- they scored after seven minutes
and they'd really just set up shop. They did what they had to do. This is where
I think Germany won't have to- they're the better team. But I just cannot
believe that a German side is favorites to win in Brazil. That's my big, big
concern and I'm just all over the draw. So prediction time. Who are we going
with? Well, the thing that worries me about Germany is that the last three or
four tournaments- they've got to this stage, everyone's fancied them, they've
been among the favorites, and then they've slipped up. But I do fancy them this
time. I think Brazil maybe at the end of the road, especially with Neymar and
Silva being out, so 2-1 for Germany for me. That's cool. 0-0 again. 0-0 again.
Let's move on to Holland against Argentina then. How do you see this one panning
out? Well, again, it's a very, very difficult game to call. Holland come into
this tournament 33/1 outsiders; they're now into 4/1. Out of all the four teams
in the betting from anti-post to where they are now, they're the ones who've
moved the most – Argentina are 9/2 second favorites. Their price hasn't really
changed, nor has Brazil's. So the bookies have been very, very impressed with
Holland.
I just thought they looked a little bit leg weary in the last game against Costa
Rica. They had a lot of running, had a lot of possession. Robben has been
exceptional for me but he's 28 years of age now. Can he do it again over the
Argentineans? There is no rule – sometimes, when you talk about gambling and
you have a bit- you just have a hunch feeling and I just have a hunch that
Argentina will be too strong for them here. I know there's no Di Maria. I don't
think that's a negative really. I think he's had a poor World Cup. But Messi
just seems to be someone who's thriving on the occasion. He doesn't done it-
he'd even gone long into second gear but I do think that extra feet rest they've
had ahead of the Dutch is crucial and I just- I've got a sneaky feeling that
Argentina might just nick this by one goal. With Brazil no Silva and Neymar as
we mentioned; Argentina, no Di Maria, no Aguero. If Messi doesn't fire, then
maybe you know- up top, they do look slightly weak. I know Higuain looked
decent.
Well, it's sort of- yes, I was going to make that point. They still got Higuain.
And Messi, you know, he's not fired in the World Cups before but he did well in
the group stages, didn't he? And I just fancy that this might be his tournament.
He's probably at his peak. He didn't play that much for Barcelona towards the
back end of last season. So he's had a bit of a break coming into the tournament
quite fresh. And I fancy Argentina to get through this one. I think the Dutch
may be a little bit too reliant on Robben. And if Argentina can stymie him, then
I think they can win. So I think we're both going for the same final Argentina
v. Brazil? If that does indeed happen, how we're seeing the final? Well, I'm
going to go for Argentina all the way. I suppose, whether or not they get in,
I'm going to go for them all the way. One thing I would say about this
Argentina-Netherlands game is that every single game Argentina have played in
this World Cup so far, they've won by one- exactly one goal and you can back
them to win it by exactly one goal around about 5/2. That would be the better
bet. I like that. That's something that might be where my money is going to.
Let's just touch on the Golden Boot because as it stands, Colombia's James
"Hahm-ez" Rodriguez up there with six goals, then we've got Mueller and Messi
who are, of course, still in the competition; they're on four goals. Do we see
Rodriguez holding on to that crown? I think if you like odds-on betting, which
I'm not a massive fan of odds-on betting, but if you do like your odds-on
betting, you have got a few quid to throw away. Rodriguez is a certainty in my
opinion. I really can't see him returning. You've got to- these guys have got to
score three goals to get them out of the money. I mean there's- they're putting
out three goals in the two semi finals so one's got to score three of them. It's
a very tall order. The only thing I would say is I think if it goes- the third
or fourth place playoff is the game you want to be involved with the goals. Yes,
exactly. That could be 4-4, so if you do back Rodriguez now and then if he gets
to the final and you've got someone like a Robben or a van Persie playing in the
third place playoff, that's crucial. But the one thing- the one bet I'm really
going to have and this is the biggest bet I'm going to have on the World Cup is
if Germany win the third or fourth place playoff, I'm going to bet Miroslav
Klose to score because any free kick, any penalty, anything, he's got to give it
like you know, so Miroslav Klose for me in the third place playoff if they get
there. But I do think James Rodriguez is a certainty of course. And just a quick
word about Rodriguez because the Brazilian public must have enjoyed his
performances. Well, I think he was fantastic. I mean that goal he scored against
Uruguay best goal of the tournament, maybe Cahill came close. But he's really
made a name for himself, hasn't he? Everyone was talking before the tournament
about Cristiano Ronaldo, Messi, maybe one or two over Suarez perhaps. But
Rodriguez has come through and he's really been the man of the tournament. He's
at Monaco at the moment but they expect him maybe to move to a bigger club in 12
months. And just, Nigel, just finally, has it been a good World Cup for the
bookies or a bad World Cup? I think it started off very badly for the World Cup
for the bookmakers because obviously goals are flying in, fancy teams are doing
so well. As the goals are drying up, ultimately, these bookies get money. So I
think going into the last three games, I think it's a slight advantage to
bookmakers and I think the only way the punters are going to win the money is if
we get a Brazil-Argentina final. Right. That's it for now. My thanks to Nigel
Seeley and Iain Axon. Join us again on Thursday when we'll be asking just how
good this World Cup has been, assessing the team of the tournament and of course
looking ahead to Sunday's final. I'm Matt Gooderick and this is Reuters. Good
bye