US natgas futures ease to 13-week low on small increase in output, lower demand forecast (updated)

Mitsubishi

16/01/2026 20:08

Mitsubishi to acquire Aethon Energy's US shale assets for $7.53 billion

Waha Hub prices remain negative due to pipeline constraints

US LNG exports decline slightly from December's record high

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters) -
U.S. natural gas futures eased to a 13-week low on Friday on a small increase in daily output, ample amounts of gas in storage and lowered forecasts for heating demand next week.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.5 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $3.103 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since October 17.

That also put the contract down for a third week in a row for the first time since September, losing 29% during that time.

        In other news, Japanese trading house Mitsubishi 8058.T will buy the U.S. shale production and infrastructure assets of privately-held Aethon Energy Management for $7.53 billion.

The White House on Friday urged PJM, the largest U.S. electric grid, to conduct an emergency power auction to protect against rolling blackouts as energy demand from data centers grows faster than the country can build new generation plants.

In the cash gas market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas remained in negative territory for a fourth day in a row and the seventh time this year as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

Waha prices have averaged a negative 32 cents per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.

Daily Waha prices first settled below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states slid to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through January 31.

Near-record production and mostly mild weather have allowed energy firms to pull slightly less gas from storage than usual so far this winter, leaving stockpiles about 6% above normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 136.4 bcfd this week to 149.2 bcfd next week and 151.5 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants slid to 18.4 bcfd so far in January on reductions at facilities in Texas, including  Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd plant, down from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas was trading around a five-month high of $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe, and a one-month high of around $10 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Jan 16 Forecast
Week ended Jan 9 Actual
Year ago 
Jan 16
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 16
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-118
-71
-228
-191
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,067
3,185
2,924
2,888
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+6.2%
+3.4%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.19
3.13
3.72
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
11.88
11.50
14.67
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
10.23
9.60
14.16
12.24
18.12
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
496
490
538
440
458
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
3
3
0
3
3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
499
493
538
443
461
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.3
109.0
108.6
103.5
98.6
U.S. Imports from Canada
10.3
9.7
9.6
N/A
9.6
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
119.6
118.8
118.3
N/A
108.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
4.0
3.8
3.7
N/A
2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico
5.8
6.1
5.7
N/A
5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.6
18.3
18.8
15.1
12.8
U.S. Commercial
15.0
15.9
19.7
19.1
17.3
U.S. Residential
24.4
26.4
33.4
34.9
29.9
U.S. Power Plant
31.4
32.1
32.5
37.7
32.5
U.S. Industrial
24.9
25.4
26.6
26.3
26.0
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.8
2.9
3.2
2.8
4.4
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
104.0
108.1
120.9
126.3
115.5
Total U.S. Demand
132.3
136.4
149.2
N/A
137.0
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
98
98
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
98
98
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
102
103
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Jan 16
Week ended Jan 9
2025
2024
2023
Wind
13
14
11
11
10
Solar
5
5
6
5
4
Hydro
7
8
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
37
35
40
42
41
Coal
16
15
18
16
17
Nuclear
21
22
18
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.92
3.13
4.13
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
3.97
6.40
8.77
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
2.02
2.18
3.87
3.42
5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.56
2.64
3.74
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.71
2.80
3.93
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
10.50
11.65
15.67
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
2.69
2.83
4.49
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-1.22
-0.48
3.27
1.15
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.37
1.33
1.22
1.13
2.13
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
105.86
105.86
147.88
77.61
61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
62.90
62.90
75.11
60.23
54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
16.23
16.23
52.79
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
17.25
17.25
44.47
34.82
59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
19.50
19.50
39.98
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Nia Williams and David Gregorio)

 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))