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Japan's Okinawa may be on the front lines again as it marks anniversary of U.S. handover

By Tim Kelly
    MIYAKO ISLAND, May 12 (Reuters) - Seihan Nakazato wants the
missile trucks on the base next to his melon farm to leave, but
few others on Okinawa's Miyako island, he complains, are
demanding that Japan's army remove such weapons, which he says
would make them a target for China.
    "We are a small community and there are lots of complicated
relationships," said Nakazato, 68, standing next to one of the
greenhouses he worries could be bombed. "Some islanders do work
for the base and others have relatives in the military."
    As Nakazato harvests his melons on Japan's key border
outpost, Okinawa on Sunday marks 50 years since the United
States ended its occupation, raising hopes of a return to
normality after its devastation in World War Two. But the East
China Sea island chain, which, along with Taiwan, hems in
Beijing's forces, fears it will become a battlefield again.
    "We are worried about statements by national lawmakers that
a Taiwan contingency would be a Japan contingency, and recent
discussions that seem to assume Okinawa would be involved in an
armed conflict," Okinawa's governor Denny Tamaki said at a news
conference on May 6. The prefecture has about 1.4 million
people, most of them on the eponymous main island.
    Russia's invasion of Ukraine has added to those concerns,
with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warning of the
fragility of security in Asia.
    And Japanese lawmakers from Kishida's party have said they
want strike missiles added to the country's arsenal - a weapon
that could be deployed to Okinawa.
    China, which spends almost five times as much on defence as
Japan, says it intentions in the region are peaceful.
    "Okinawa will be the front line in the case of a war or
conflict between Japan and China," said Masaaki Gabe, a
professor emeritus at the University of Ryukyus on Okinawa's
main island, who described himself as an insecure 17-year-old
when the U.S. occupation ended.
    "After 50 years, the insecure feeling still continues," he
added.
    
    STRATEGIC VALUE
    Fringed with coral reefs and covered in sugar cane, Gabe's
home island is a vital military outpost. It has two airports, a
large port and is less than 400 kilometres (249 miles) from
Taiwan. It is also 200km from uninhabited islands in the East
China Sea that are the focal point of an intensifying
territorial dispute with China.
    The Ground Self Defense Force (GSDF) camp next to Nakazato's
farm, which used to be a golf course, is Japan's newest army
base. The missiles deployed there, meant to target Chinese ships
sailing in and out the Western Pacific, are the closest such
weapons Japan has to China. 
     "I fear the whole island will become a fortress," said
Hayako Shimizu, 73, the leader of a group of protesters opposed
to the base, who stand outside every Thursday with flags planted
on Nakazato's land.
    "There aren't many people who speak up, although I think a
lot of people are unhappy with it," Shimizu added. 
    Base commander Colonel Masakazu Iyota, 52, thinks most
islanders support or accept the presence of the 700 GSDF troops
and their equipment, which he described as a "frontline
deterrence". 
    "I don't think our current posture is enough," he said. 
    
    NEXT STEPS
    Iyota may get reinforcements after Japan revises its
national security strategy this year.
    As part of that review, ruling LDP lawmakers have said they
want a commitment to more defence spending - including on
missiles that can hit targets on foreign soil. 
    Japan may hold off on deploying such strike weapons to
Miyako avoid provoking China, only 600km away, but Gabe predicts
the country will station aircraft and other missiles in Okinawa.
    The next phase of military expansion on Miyako could be at
its Shimoji airport, a former senior defence ministry official
told Reuters, asking not to be identified because of the
sensitivity of the matter. 
    Built to train jumbo jet pilots, it has been a symbol of
resistance to militarization since Okinawa's first
post-occupation governor, Chobyo Yara, secured a government
promise to never deploy military planes there. 
    Senior ruling Liberal Democratic party lawmakers such as
Masahisa Sato have sought to annul that. 
    "Apart from the main Okinawa island, it is the only other
place an F-15 fighter jet can operate from," said Sato, a former
deputy defence minister, who proposed stationing air force jets
there in 2020. "As we have seen in Ukraine, you never know when
war will break out."
    
    ISLAND POLITICS
    Kishida's party will need local support in Okinawa to build
more bases, a tough proposition when resentment over U.S. forces
there dominates politics. 
    Of 812 Okinawans polled by public broadcaster NHK in March,
56% said they strongly opposed U.S. bases; only a quarter of
1,115 people outside the prefecture said the same.
    A test of whether the LDP can gain ground comes in
September, when Okinawa chooses its governor. Tamaki, an
independent who wants a smaller military footprint, is on the
ballot. 
    On Miyako, Masahiro Hamamoto, 48, who served as an LDP city
councilor for eight years, sees a chance for his party to gain
support on his island, which depends on farming, tourism and
public works spending. 
    "There is a sense that it benefits the island by having
closer political links to central government," said the local
beverage and cigarette wholesaler, who was born two years after
Okinawa was returned to Japan.
    The income of Miyako's 55,000 residents is about 70% of the
national average.
    "The economy isn't good, so people will vote for the LDP,"
said Toshiaki Shimoji, 61, an Okinawa main island resident who
traveled to Miyako to work his family's farm. 
    "Russia invaded Ukraine, so there will be more defence
spending and that could mean more missiles here. I don't think
base protests will change anything," he added, sitting on a
tractor in a sugar cane field. 

 (Reporting by Tim Kelly, additional reporting by Kaori Kaneko.
Editing by Gerry Doyle)
 ((tim.kelly@thomsonreuters.com; +813-6441-1311;))

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