Japanese copper smelters' H1 output seen falling 1.3% y/y

Nittetsu Mining Co

10/04/2025 10:44

By Yuka Obayashi

TOKYO, April 10 (Reuters) - Japan's refined copper production in the first half of the 2025/26 financial year is expected to fall 1.3% year-on-year, Reuters calculations from plans outlined by smelters showed, as soft demand for wire and cable offsets firmer demand for copper alloy products.

The first half of the financial year runs from April to September.

Japan's largest copper supplier, Pan Pacific Copper (PPC), expects its first-half supply to remain nearly flat from a year earlier, with no scheduled maintenance, a company spokesperson said.

PPC, jointly owned by JX Advanced Metals 5016.T, Mitsui Mining and Smelting 5706.T and Marubeni 8002.T, outsources smelting and refining operations to its parent companies' plants. It procures raw materials and sells refined metals.

PPC expects domestic demand to stay in line with the previous year, as construction and electric wire demand remains weak due to labour shortages. Additionally, slow housing starts will weigh on copper alloy product demand, the spokesperson added.

In March, the Japan Copper and Brass Association projected a 5.4% increase in domestic demand for copper alloy products in the 2025/26 financial year, which started this month, citing a recovery in the chip sector and slight growth in the auto sector.

The Japan Electric Wire & Cable Makers' Association  forecast a 0.4% decline in domestic copper wire and cable shipments for the current year, as stronger demand for electric power and exports will be countered by a drop in telecommunications.

In December, Toho Zinc 5707.T announced business revitalization plans, under which it will suspend major facilities at its Annaka Smelter and Refinery, north of Tokyo, by the end of March 2025, effectively exiting the zinc smelting business.

Below are the production plans of base metals in metric tons for October to March by key suppliers PPC, Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM) 5713.T, Mitsubishi Materials 5711.T, Nittetsu Mining 1515.T, Furukawa 5715.T, Dowa Holdings 5714.T, Mitsui Mining and Toho Zinc.

The table shows comparisons against planned or estimated production in metric tons in the second-half and actual output in the first-half of the 2024/25 financial year that ended on March 31, with year-on-year percentage changes for the first half of 2025/26.

H1
H2
H1
FY25/26
FY24/25
FY24/25
y/y
Copper
PPC
303,600
294,300
305,700
-0.7
SMM
216,000
228,807
221,593
-2.5
Mitsubishi
213,540
196,578
214,854
-0.6
Nittetsu
23,926
23,873
24,776
-3.4
Furukawa
22,522
22,475
23,300
-3.3
Dowa
3,531
4,183
3,314
6.5
TOTAL
783,119
764,216
793,537
-1.3
Zinc
Mitsui
114,000
115,000
102,300
11.4
Dowa
85,385
107,670
86,073
-0.8
Toho Zinc
--
22,275
26,119
-100.0
TOTAL
199,385
244,945
214,492
-7.0
Lead
Toho Zinc
47,300
36,990
44,877
5.4
Mitsui
35,900
35,600
33,300
7.8
Mitsubishi
14,070
14,976
14,244
-1.2
Dowa
5,033
5,960
3,326
51.3
TOTAL
102,303
93,526
95,747
6.8
Nickel
SMM
32,000
29,314
31,086
2.9
Ferronickel
SMM
2,400
1,721
1,679
42.9

 (Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; editing by David Evans)

 ((Yuka.Obayashi@thomsonreuters.com; +813-4520-1265;))