GLP-1 boom in China, India, Brazil could create $22 bln market by 2035, J.P. Morgan says

Novo Nordisk A/S

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J.P. Morgan sees $22 billion GLP-1 opportunity in China, India, Brazil
China to lead expansion as access improves, brokerage says
Obesity-drug uptake in the three markets remains well below US levels
By Joel  Jose
Oct 23 (Reuters) - The combined China-India-Brazil market for weight-loss drugs could grow to $22 billion by 2035 from $6.6 billion currently, J.P. Morgan estimated, as improving affordability and broader access drive adoption in largely untapped patient populations.
The addressable market could grow at an annual rate of 15% through 2035, J.P. Morgan analysts led by Yang Huang said in a note on Friday, given the countries' large diabetes and obesity burdens. 
GLP-1 drugs, such as Novo Nordisk's NOVOb.CO Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly's LLY.N Zepbound, have become some of the most sought-after medicines for weight-loss and diabetes treatment globally. 
China and India are home to some of the world's largest diabetes patient populations, accounting for more than 25% and 15% of global diagnosed cases, respectively, while about 12% of Brazilian adults have diabetes, according to J.P. Morgan.
The three countries also face a growing obesity burden. China's overweight and obese population could exceed 65% by 2030, while India's adult obesity rate is projected to reach 11% by 2035.
"GLP-1 is transitioning from a developed-market growth theme to a broader global access story..." the analysts said.
"With patent cliffs, generic launches and policy-engineered price cuts now improving GLP-1 affordability, the three markets are converging on the same destination."

UNDER-TAPPED MARKETS
GLP-1's uptake in many emerging markets has remained low due to affordability concerns. Penetration is below 0.1% in China and under 0.2% in India, versus 4%-5% in the US, according to the note.
While Brazil is currently the largest of the three markets, obesity-drug penetration is projected to reach only 7%-8% of its obese population by 2035, compared with about 30% in the US.
J.P. Morgan expects China to overtake Brazil by 2027, with its market reaching $13.7 billion by 2035, versus $8 billion for Brazil, supported by its large diabetes burden and wider reimbursement for GLP-1 therapies.
For India, the smallest of the three markets, conservative attitudes toward GLP-1 drugs, alongside affordability concerns, remain key barriers to adoption, J.P. Morgan said, as hesitancy around injectables and slow-shifting cultural attitudes persist.
The brokerage highlighted China's Innovent 1801.HK, Divi's Laboratories DIVI.NS and Torrent Pharmaceuticals TORP.NS in India, and Brazil's RD Saude RADL3.SA as its key stocks to play the GLP-1 growth theme.


 (Reporting by Joel Jose in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)
 ((JoelJose@thomsonreuters.com;))