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Miners' $8 bln tie-up grants gold price resistance

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist.  The opinions expressed are his own.

By Antony Currie

MELBOURNE, May 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Regis Resources RRL.AX investors are too pessimistic about the Australian gold miner's A$10.7 billion ($7.7 billion) tie-up with local rival Vault Minerals VAU.AX. Shares in the acquirer dropped as much as 7% on Tuesday morning after the two companies unveiled their merger of equals. The deal is short on cost cuts. But it's a low-premium transaction that bulks up two mid-tier players and is insulated from gold price volatility.

Bullion hit a record high just shy of $5300 an ounce in January and March, an almost 150% increase over two years. It has since traded sharply up and down and is currently around $4500 an ounce - a level it had never hit until the end of 2025.

That has left plenty of miners flush with cash, which can lure executives into splurging on expensive acquisitions. Not so in this transaction. Regis is the official buyer, but it's an all-stock deal, preserving liquidity for growth. And it's only paying a premium of 11%, equal to A$500 million.

Sure, the two firms' mines aren't close enough to each other to warrant the kind of large cost cuts that might have come from marrying a different partner. But tax breaks from the tie up match the premium. And if a mix of procurement and other savings could reduce the target's expenses by, say 5%, that'd add another A$300 million, once taxed and capitalised, to the merger's value to shareholders.

Meanwhile, the enlarged company would carry no debt and would generate A$1.7 billion a year in free cash flow. Combined with a war chest of A$1.9 billion, that's a good base to develop current and new assets.

Governance issues appear to have been sorted out already, too. The premium means the combined company would be virtually equally owned by each side, with Regis investors holding 51%. Vault's Russell Clark and Regis' Jim Beyer would retain their roles in the new outfit as non-executive chair and CEO, respectively. And each side would get four board seats.

At some 700,000 ounces a year, the merged company would become a major gold producer Down Under, but be half the size of leader Northern Star Resources NST.AX, ranked 10th globally. The larger rival trades at 5 times forward EBITDA, per LSEG, more than twice the multiple for Regis and Vault. Just halving that gap would give the newly merged company's market value a significant boost and a stronger currency for another deal - regardless which way the gold price goes.

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CONTEXT NEWS

Australian gold miners Regis Resources and Vault Minerals have agreed to an all-share merger of equals that would create a combined company with an indicative market capitalisation of A$10.7 billion, the two said on May 5.

Vault investors will receive 0.6947 in Regis stock for each share they own, equating to an 11% premium to the closing price on May 4.

Regis CEO Jim Beyer will run the combined group, with Vault non-executive Chair Russell Clark taking on the same role at the expanded company. The board will consist of four directors from each firm.

Regis has outperformed Vault and gold bullion https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRV-BRV/movaozkqkva/chart.png

(Editing by Robyn Mak; Production by Aditya Srivastav)

((For previous columns by the author, Reuters customers can click on CURRIE/antony.currie@thomsonreuters.com))

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