Analysis: Taxes and high oil prices are set to spur more UK energy deals
ANALYSIS-Taxes and high oil prices are set to spur more UK energy deals By Muvija M
LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Tax advantages and high energy prices will drive further consolidation in Britain's North Sea oil and gas fields after a flurry of deals this year, 11 industry analysts and bankers said.
A rise in oil and gas prices LCOc1 to multiyear highs caused by disruption linked to the US-Israeli war with Iran has generated huge amounts of cash for the industry, which has been reporting results this week.
But the price rises have also increased inflation for everyone, sharpening the appetite for scale to justify production in the mature North Sea Basin, which the British government views as a secure, domestic supply source.
Oil and gas M&A involving a UK target or buyer has reached $19.6 billion year-to-date, exceeding the $16.5 billion for all of 2025, according to LSEG data. That makes 2026 the strongest year for activity since at least 2022, when Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine led to a previous energy crisis.
Among the analysts and bankers who spoke to Reuters, James McCormack of investment bank and research firm Cavendish said the pool of potential buyers was relatively small, but that did not preclude more deals.
He described the UK North Sea as "an increasingly concentrated market when it comes to credible buyers with the balance sheet, tax capacity and decommissioning capability to execute material deals".
As relative costs are especially high in ageing oil and gas fields, Cavendish in a report published in September said the pressure was on for mergers.
"Companies that can offer diversification, liquidity and development capital are attracting premium valuations, while sub-scale operators face growing pressure to merge, seek capital in deeper markets, or accept takeover approaches," it said.
Alexander Franke, an energy consultant at Oliver Wyman, also predicted the need to contain costs would drive more activity with the caveat the pace would depend on oil price outlook.
Any unexpected fall in energy prices could deter buyers, while sustained rises could boost cash flow and funding for acquisitions.
UK TAX RATE ADDS TO CASE FOR DEALS
British taxes are a further incentive to maximise efficiency, the bankers and analysts said.
An Energy Profits Levy, introduced by the previous Conservative government and increased under the current Labour government, has pushed the headline tax rate on UK upstream oil and gas activities to 78%.
"There's been a lot of tax-driven consolidation in recent years," Greig Aitken, director of corporate research at Wood Mackenzie, said.
Others also highlighted the advantage of scale in the tax context.
"There's still a rationale for two UK North Sea players to combine, so that the enlarged company can take advantage of the tax credits as well as operational synergies," Tony White of advisory firm MKI said.
SHIFTING STRATEGY COULD MAKE INVESTORS PAUSE
Apart from the unpredictability of energy prices, investment decisions are complicated by the uncertainty of government policy.
The British government has said it remains committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but it approved earlier this month the development of the Jackdaw North Sea gas field.
In its autumn budget statement on Wednesday, it reiterated its long-term commitment to keeping oil and gas in the energy mix, although it did not announce any new measures for the oil and gas industry.
The decision on Jackdaw followed years of debate as environmental campaigners said there was no justification for investment in fossil fuel production, while others said the project would provide jobs and a domestic source of natural gas at less environmental cost than imported supplies.
BP'S NORTH SEA SALE
The biggest oil companies for years have been withdrawing from the ageing North Sea to focus on bigger prospects elsewhere.
Shell SHEL.L, has opted to manage its remaining North Sea exposure through partnerships and joint ventures, including the creation of Adura with Norway's Equinor EQNR.OL.
BP BP.L, the last major with a significant North Sea focus, this July announced plans to sell its oil and gas fields in the basin as part of a portfolio overhaul to improve profitability.
Analysts have estimated the sale could raise $2 billion and trigger another wave of consolidation.
"Most likely the buyer is another North Sea consolidator. Value will be driven by infrastructure and tax synergies rather than by reserves alone," Cavendish's McCormack said, naming UK companies EnQuest, NEO NEXT+ and Ithaca as possible buyers.
The next round of bidding will be in December, one person with knowledge of the process said. BP had no further comment.
Amjad Bseisu, CEO of EnQuest, has said he is interested in the assets. The company had no further comment.
Ithaca declined to comment, while NEO NEXT+ did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
START OF A BROADER CONSOLIDATION CYCLE
UK-listed companies have drawn rival bids, including from international would-be buyers. London-listed Genel Energy GENL.L in September raised its offer to $436 million for Britain's Capricorn Energy CNE.L, outbidding Norway's DNO DNO.OL.
Israel's Ratio Petroleum RTPTp.TA outbid Serica Energy with a sweetened $196 million offer for Pharos Energy PHARP.L in August. Serica SER.L said it continues to evaluate acquisition opportunities in both the UK North Sea and international markets.
This month Gulf Keystone Petroleum GKP.L and ShaMaran Petroleum SNMS.OL announced a $601 million all-share merger, while Ithaca ITH.L has agreed to buy three offshore oil assets from Canada's Suncor SU.TO for C$1.2 billion ($853.49 million).
Even Pharos CEO Katherine Roe, a former investment banker, said she was surprised by the bidding war for the company.
She told Reuters rising costs and limited diversification left smaller producers more exposed to political, operational and energy price risks, but that consolidation can improve efficiency and investor returns.
"To receive a cash bid at a 30% premium with liquidity in a way that's just not achievable on a daily basis is ... the best outcome for shareholders," Roe said.
(Reporting by Muvija M in London; additional reporting by Shadia Nasralla, and Stephanie Kelly. Editing by Anousha Sakoui and Barbara Lewis)
((Muvija.M@thomsonreuters.com; within the UK: +44 7776813338, outside the UK: +91 80 61822698; Twitter: https://twitter.com/muvija_m;))