Marubeni expects Japanese aluminium premiums to stay above $200 a ton in 2025

SUMITOMO CHEMICAL

16/12/2024 09:38

By Yuka Obayashi
       TOKYO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The premiums that Japanese
buyers pay for aluminium are likely to remain above $200 a
metric ton in 2025 due to tightening supply in Asia, trading
house Marubeni Corp  8002.T  said on Tuesday.
    Japan is a major aluminium importer in Asia and the premiums
for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over
the London Metal Exchange cash price set the benchmark for the
region.
    Japanese premiums have risen to $175 a ton this quarter, up
1.7% from the prior three months, on supply concerns amid higher
premiums in Europe. 
    In negotiations for January-March shipments, some Japanese
buyers have agreed to pay a global producer a premium of $228
per ton over the benchmark price, up 30% from this quarter and
the highest since 2015, two sources directly involved in the
talks said.
    Marubeni, a major Japanese aluminium trader, predicted the
premiums would stay between $220-$255 per ton in January-March,
and in a range of $200 to $300 for the rest of 2025.
    "Rising Russian metal inflows into China, logistics
disruptions in the Middle East, and a change in the balance of
power due to Japanese companies exiting aluminium smelting have
heightened the market's sensitivity to premiums in other
regions," Eisuke Akasaka, general manager at Marubeni's light
metals section, said.
    Japan's Sumitomo Chemical  4005.T  has sold its 20.64% stake
in New Zealand Aluminium Smelters (NZAS) and 2.46% stake in
Boyne Smelters in Australia to Rio Tinto  RIO.L   RIO.AX  this
year, while trading house Mitsubishi Corp  8058.T  has also sold
its 11.65% stake in Boyne Smelters to Rio.
    "China's suspension of an export tax refund for aluminium
semi-finished products is expected to create a supply crunch in
the Asian region outside of China, which will keep the Japan
premiums at a high level next year," Akasaka added.
    Aluminium prices  CMAL3  are currently trading around $2,556
per ton.
    Marubeni forecast an average aluminium price of $2,700 per
ton for 2025, expecting it to reach $3,000 by the year-end, as
China's production capacity approaches its limit, tightening
supply.

 (Reporting by Yuka Obayashi; Editing by Jan Harvey)
 ((Yuka.Obayashi@thomsonreuters.com; +813-4520-1265;))