UK grocery inflation accelerates over last month, says Worldpanel

Tesco

13/10/2026 08:00

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - British grocery price inflation accelerated to 2.5% over the four weeks to October 4, market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator said on Tuesday, putting more pressure on households already facing higher motor fuel and energy bills.
The figure compared to 2.3% in last month's report, with prices rising fastest in products such as water, cordials and skincare and falling fastest in butter, cheese and chocolate.
The Worldpanel data is the most up-to-date snapshot of UK consumer behaviour, providing an early indication of food pricing pressures in October. Official UK inflation data for September will be published on October 21
UK food inflation has not hit the levels that were forecast earlier in the year, reflecting fierce supermarket competition, consumers' resistance to further price rises and better hedging in the industry
Industry groups predict UK food inflation will hit nearly 7% in 2027, driven by Middle East disruption, rising input costs and extreme weather linked to El Nino
The Worldpanel data showed UK grocery sales increased 1.0% over the four weeks year-on-year, indicating lower sales on a volume basis once inflation is taken into account
Over the 12 weeks to October 4, industry leader Tesco's TSCO.L sales rose 1.0% year-on-year, but its market share edged lower for the fifth report in a row
While Marks & Spencer MKS.L isn't fully included in the Worldpanel data set, it remained the UK's fastest-growing food retailer with a 14.9% rise in sales of groceries
Separate survey data published on Tuesday showed British consumers kept a lid on overall spending in September, with warm weather helping pubs but hurting clothing sales

 UK supermarkets' market share and sales growth (%)

Market share 12 weeks to Oct 4 2026  
Market share 12 weeks to Oct 5 2025        
% change in sales year-on-year
Tesco
27.8
27.9
1.0
Sainsbury's
15.2
15.3
1.3
Asda
11.5
11.8
-0.5
Aldi
10.5
10.6
0.4
Lidl
8.6
8.2
7.1
Morrisons
8.3
8.3
1.8
Co-operative
5.4
5.4
1.8
Waitrose
4.4
4.4
2.3
Iceland
2.2
2.3
0.2
Ocado
2.2
2.0
12.4
 Source: Worldpanel by Numerator

 (Reporting by James Davey; editing by Sarah Young)
 ((james.davey@thomsonreuters.com))