Brokerages expect New Zealand's a2 Milk to regain China-label market share

The a2 Milk

18/08/2026 05:21

Updates
** Shares of New Zealand's a2 Milk ATM.NZ rise as much as 10.6% to NZ$8.580, their highest level since July 31
** Citi and Morningstar analysts expect ATM to regain market share in its China-label infant milk formula (IMF) business, even if gradually, after supply disruptions led to customers switching brands in fourth quarter 
** On Monday, company reported a 44% drop in net profit attributable to NZ$113.6 million ($67.02 million), as China-label IMF supply disruptions offset growth in English-label formula and fresh milk earnings
** Company projected FY27 revenue growth in mid-to-single-digit percent range, down from 12.4% in 2026
** Morningstar cuts FY27 EBITDA forecast by 14% to NZ$313 million to align with the company's forecast 
** Morningstar analysts said they had expected a "quicker rebound" from Q4 supply disruptions, but added "brand health in China is still strong, and we expect market share gains to resume from fiscal 2028" 
** Citi said management's track record warrants backing it to regain lost market share faster than expected, and upgraded rating to "buy" from "neutral"
** YTD, ATM down over 16% 


($1 = 1.6949 New Zealand dollars)

 (Reporting by Shruti Agarwal & Rajasik Mukherjee in Bengaluru)
 ((Shruti.Agarwal@thomsonreuters.com;))