Mizuho turns cautious on P&C insurers as market begins to soften

The Progressive

16/09/2026 18:32

** Mizuho says property and casualty market is in early stages of softening, with blended commercial lines' written renewal pricing below loss trends
** Cuts PT on 8 P&C insurers and downgrades Hartford Insurance HIG.N to "neutral" from "outperform"
** Brokerage expects underwriting margins to deteriorate and premium growth to slow through 2028, with the disconnect between fundamentals and valuations most pronounced among diversified commercial insurers
** Adds that insurance brokers are more adequately valued, while valuations of Bermudian and personal-lines insurers already reflect market softening
** Insurers may remain profitable in the near term because many existing policies were sold at higher prices, but cheaper new policies could push up claims relative to premiums over the next 12 to 24 months, brokerage says
** Expects elevated insurer buybacks to continue as growth opportunities diminish and lower valuations make repurchases more accretive
 
Company Name
New PT
Old PT
Arch Capital Group ACGL.O 
$100
$104
American International Group AIG.N 
$85
$86
Allstate ALL.N 
$297
$300
AXIS Capital Holdings AXS.N 
$118
$130
Chubb CB.N 
$347
$352
Hartford Insurance Group HIG.N 
$154
$163
Progressive PGR.N 
$230
$236
W.R. Berkley WRB.N 
$72
$74
  

 (Reporting by Pragyan Kalita in Bengaluru)
 ((Pragyan.Kalita@thomsonreuters.com;))